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Who will win the 2013 GIRO? (Second round)

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Who will win the 2013 GIRO?

Wiggins
52
30%
Nibali
51
30%
Rodriguez
11
6%
Hesjedal
10
6%
Gesink
21
12%
Sanchez
5
3%
Basso
6
4%
Scarponi
2
1%
A colombian
4
2%
Other/Vino
9
5%
 
Total votes : 171

18 Dec 2012 13:45

18-Valve. (pithy) wrote:We're talking about a climb that suited Wiggins perfectly... and yet he still got dropped by his teammate.


What didn't let Nibali attack on more suited climbs? It is not very serious. When one is dropped he is dropped forever and no one can salvage him properly. Wiggins simply felt bad for 30 seconds or something.
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18 Dec 2012 13:49

airstream wrote:What didn't let Nibali attack on more suited climbs?

The absence of them. Or their bad positions.
A race that doesn't give an attacker the chance to finish it off alone is not a race anymore.


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User avatar Eshnar
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18 Dec 2012 14:08

Eshnar wrote:The absence of them. Or their bad positions.

Planches des Belles Filles. Attack! I don't wanna... :o

My opinion is there is no principal difference between a 6% av. climb and an 8-8.5% one. If one is good, one is good at any climbs and it works almost always. A really powerful team can arrange an up-and-downer even on a climb like.. Sierra Nevada... I don't know. It is exceptionally a matter of purpose. But even if it is the case. Since when has Nibali became an outstanding master of steep ramps? :)
User avatar airstream
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18 Dec 2012 14:11

airstream wrote:Planches des Belles Filles. Attack! I don't wanna... :o

My opinion is there is no principal difference between a 6% av. climb and an 8-8.5% one. If one is good, one is good at any climbs and it works almost always. A really powerful team can arrange an up-and-downer even on a climb like.. Sierra Nevada... I don't know. It is exceptionally a matter of purpose. But even if it is the case. Since when has Nibali became an outstanding master of steep ramps? :)

He's not an outstanding master, but he should be better than Wiggins. Again we have no proof since the Tour had none of them :o But Nibbles did very well on the Zonc in 2011 and last year he was easily with the very best on the Muro di Sormano. So I'd say he goes pretty well on steep climbs.
A race that doesn't give an attacker the chance to finish it off alone is not a race anymore.


Bronze Medal at the Great Grand Tour Game 2012

WARNING: Location says Germany, but I'm Italian...
User avatar Eshnar
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18 Dec 2012 14:18

wiggo is too obvious

my pick is one of
pellizotti
rujano
danilo di luca
ivan basso
Vino 4ever
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18 Dec 2012 14:23

My nationality forced me to vote for Gesink :)

I'm really hoping for an epic Gesink vs. Nibali battle here.
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18 Dec 2012 14:31

gesink will crash or suck or quite possibly both
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18 Dec 2012 14:41

Eshnar wrote:He's not an outstanding master, but he should be better than Wiggins. Again we have no proof since the Tour had none of them :o But Nibbles did very well on the Zonc in 2011 and last year he was easily with the very best on the Muro di Sormano. So I'd say he goes pretty well on steep climbs.


What does the Giro include but Trecime? Some 2-3k 9-10% pieces in the second week. That's it. Wiggins is not an idiot. He will not try to contest against Nibali or Rodriguez in explosiveness. He will lose 10-15 seconds in cold blood..
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18 Dec 2012 14:50

airstream wrote:What does the Giro include but Trecime? Some 2-3k 9-10% pieces in the second week. That's it. Wiggins is not an idiot. He will not try to contest against Nibali or Rodriguez in explosiveness. He will lose 10-15 seconds in cold blood..

Let's say I expect him to lose a bit more but you're right, the Wiggins of last Tour would never lose as much as he gained in the ITT. But we have to see if he will be the same of the Tour, I already said that in the beginning and in the former thread too.
In the next Giro Le Tre Cime is the only one overly steep climb, but there are at least 4-5 climbs that are harder than anything Wiggins saw at the last Tour (except maybe Croix De Fer) plus a dozen of small and explosive climbs in the medium mountain stages, which could be very dangerous if his opponents try to exploit them (not sure if they will ofc). Also you could consider that in the next Giro Wiggins will likely remain without teammates at a certain point, something that last year never happened.
A race that doesn't give an attacker the chance to finish it off alone is not a race anymore.


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WARNING: Location says Germany, but I'm Italian...
User avatar Eshnar
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18 Dec 2012 14:57

Eshnar wrote:Let's say I expect him to lose a bit more but you're right, the Wiggins of last Tour would never lose as much as he gained in the ITT. But we have to see if he will be the same of the Tour, I already said that in the beginning and in the former thread too.
In the next Giro Le Tre Cime is the only one overly steep climb, but there are at least 4-5 climbs that are harder than anything Wiggins saw at the last Tour (except maybe Croix De Fer) plus a dozen of small and explosive climbs in the medium mountain stages, which could be very dangerous if his opponents try to exploit them (not sure if they will ofc). Also you could consider that in the next Giro Wiggins will likely remain without teammates at a certain point, something that last year never happened.


Good post.

Though I believe that if Wiggins shows his form from the Tour then he may be too much for Nibali on the steeper finishes. The best indication of that was PDBF on Stage 7 where Wiggins seemed more in control than Nibali..
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18 Dec 2012 15:30

Eshnar wrote:In the next Giro Le Tre Cime is the only one overly steep climb, but there are at least 4-5 climbs that are harder than anything Wiggins saw at the last Tour (except maybe Croix De Fer)

But almost all of them will be overpassed at a very sparing rhythm due to emplacement far away from finish.


Also you could consider that in the next Giro Wiggins will likely remain without teammates at a certain point, something that last year never happened.

But we should not run to extremes too. The fact that he may be dropped won't take away his composure, mastery and experience as many people who like to criticize him like to underline. Though, I don't quite understand because of what we might give Nibali any edge in the mountains by default. Rodrigues is an absolutely differest story surely. I don't see Nibali hanging on Purito's attack based on what we saw in this season.
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18 Dec 2012 15:46

airstream wrote:But almost all of them will be overpassed at a very sparing rhythm due to emplacement far away from finish.

Maybe. Just like 'maybe' Wiggins will be as strong as last year.
airstream wrote:But we should not run to extremes too. The fact that he may be dropped won't take away his composure
again into the realm of possibilities
airstream wrote:I don't see Nibali hanging on Purito's attack based on what we saw in this season.

Nor do I. Nibbles sucks at uphill sprints.
A race that doesn't give an attacker the chance to finish it off alone is not a race anymore.


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WARNING: Location says Germany, but I'm Italian...
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18 Dec 2012 18:26

theyoungest wrote:Wiggo as a climber is on par with Nibali, at the very least. And there's a 50 k flattish TT in the race. If he approaches the form of the Tour next year, I don't see how Nibali can beat him.


airstream wrote:He smashed Nibali and he would have smashed Nibali even more unsparingly if it had been needed. It was an unconditional victory on all counts. Everything Nibali could do on the climbs was miserable school boy La Toussuire move when he could hang at the distance of 15-20 sec during 4-5 km's. What are we talking about?


But I'm not convinced Wiggins will be there in the form he had at the Tour. Plus it will be a harder race to control, and I could easily see Wiggins getting isolated more. I expect Nibali to be in much better form than we have seen in the past as well, he'll have a stronger team and I think he will be more motivated to win the Giro.
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18 Dec 2012 18:46

It's interesting how almost nobody rates Hesjedal... why would he be worse than Gesink, or even Nibali? This is how Vaughters likes it, he'll start as the underdog once again, but to me he has an equal or bigger chance than those guys.
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18 Dec 2012 18:50

theyoungest wrote:It's interesting how almost nobody rates Hesjedal... why would he be worse than Gesink, or even Nibali? This is how Vaughters likes it, he'll start as the underdog once again, but to me he has an equal or bigger chance than those guys.


It's down to the endless "weak field" argument that goes around and around the CN forum.
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18 Dec 2012 19:09

theyoungest wrote:It's interesting how almost nobody rates Hesjedal... why would he be worse than Gesink, or even Nibali? This is how Vaughters likes it, he'll start as the underdog once again, but to me he has an equal or bigger chance than those guys.


same for me.
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18 Dec 2012 19:23

theyoungest wrote:It's interesting how almost nobody rates Hesjedal... why would he be worse than Gesink, or even Nibali? This is how Vaughters likes it, he'll start as the underdog once again, but to me he has an equal or bigger chance than those guys.


Hesjedal has zero fan appeal, name one thing about him other than that he won the Giro and that he's always confused as an American but is a Canadian.
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18 Dec 2012 20:27

ElChingon wrote:Hesjedal has zero fan appeal, name one thing about him other than that he won the Giro and that he's always confused as an American but is a Canadian.


Who ever confused hejsedal for an American.?
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The Father of Clean Cycling, Christophe Bassons wrote:When I look at cycling today, I get the impression that history is repeating itself: riders who are supposed to be rouleurs are climbing passes at the front of the race, and those who are supposed to be climbers are riding time trials at more than 50 kilometres per hour.

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18 Dec 2012 20:31

The Hitch wrote:Who ever confused hejsedal for an American.?


He is an American. ;)
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18 Dec 2012 20:35

theyoungest wrote:It's interesting how almost nobody rates Hesjedal... why would he be worse than Gesink, or even Nibali? This is how Vaughters likes it, he'll start as the underdog once again, but to me he has an equal or bigger chance than those guys.


He's definitely one of the favourites, but it depends on the weather conditions imo. Giro 2012 had rain and cold all over the second and third week, which obviously benefited Hesjedal on the longer run as a much heavier rider than his competitors, except Basso. If the 2013 Giro has relatively good weather it's up to the lighter guys to take the win.
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