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2013 Santos Tour Down Under: 20th Jan - 27th Jan

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15 Jan 2013 02:00

Tuarts wrote:People throw stupid words around like world class and elite all the time. Cavendish is a freak, a 'HC' sprinter. In a fair sprint with every top rider getting a chance, no one can get near him even if you are Cipo with a Zabel-Petacchi lead out train. The only other sprinter you can realistically call 'elite' at the moment is Greipel. There's a long and subjective gap back to whoever is third.

Sagan is a freak but he's only had one season of top line sprinting and may move away from that anyway.
Degenkolb needs an incline or hill and has faced the Quality of Opposition like he would in a Tour.
Kittel needs to stop being injured but he's on the upward, not there yet.
Pettachi is ready to get his Seniors card
Farrar has gone awol these last two seasons (for whatever reason).
The rest are either up coming talents or a bunch of B-grade sprinters

So Goss. Quite easily thrown in with those name and has shown and proven he can place highly and win a GT sprint. Being able to compete for the win is contesting, so movingtarget's original claim is just ignorance.

Sprinting is chaotic and a million things can go wrong. That's why even a rider like Cavendish doesn't have a perfect record. Trying to use him having the perfect day as a yardstick is stupid. Other sprinters can win and placing highly and consistently is a key indicator that he is has shown he is more than capable of.

'Perfect Day' arguists need to remember that on his day, Goss is less than a wheel off Cav, which not many current sprints can claim.


I did not say he couldn't compete, learn to read, but his lack of success = wins in 2012 was marked. You say on his day he gets close to Cav. Many times last year year he was thrashed, not even close. A class sprinter should be winning more often. I don't think placings were giving Goss much of a thrill last year according to his interviews. He sounded frustrated. I am not convinced he will be a bunch sprinter that will will win regularly like a younger McEwen etc. I am more convinced he could win some of the flatter classic races or sometimes a stage now and then. He might convince of his bunch sprinting if he returns to his pre 2012 form. I am happy to be proved wrong and I like watching him race.
movingtarget
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15 Jan 2013 02:11

manolo wrote:I haven't got quite through all the replies. Do people think only Stage 2 and Stage 5 are the only ones that might not end in a mass sprint? Are any of the stages, like the Old Willung one, exactly like last years'?


Stage 3 will be a smallish group at best. There's really not a flat moment in it so the true sprinters are going to have a hard time. I actually wouldn't be surprised if the breakaway laps the last part of the field as they're doing six laps of the Sterling/Mylor/Aldgate circuit straight off the Old Freeway climb.

Even Stage 1 is more "rolling" than "flat" so the big guys may only have the "Classic", "Stage 4" and "Stage 6".

To the other question Stages 5 and 6 and the "People's Choice Classic" are facsimiles of last year, and the finishing circuit of Stage 3 is the same. Stages 4 and 6 will most likely be the biggest snooze fests, but Stages 2, 3 and 5 will hopefully be raced from the gun.

And guys, arguing over who the fifth best sprinter in the world is not worth the effort TBH.
Most people's signatures are a stupid waste of time, just like this one.
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15 Jan 2013 02:18

Yeh, the Stirling stage could potentially eliminate Kittel who will be dropped as soon as the flag goes down.
Ferminal
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15 Jan 2013 02:18

badboyberty wrote:Stage 3 will be a smallish group at best. There's really not a flat moment in it so the true sprinters are going to have a hard time. I actually wouldn't be surprised if the breakaway laps the last part of the field as they're doing six laps of the Sterling/Mylor/Aldgate circuit straight off the Old Freeway climb.

I doubt they would lap the whole field if the circuits are 21.4km long.
diggercuz wrote:second post ever after reading the forum for the last few years and one thing i must say, ACF94 is probably the most intelligent poster here, never biased to BMC or Cadel, and never gets worked up over anything.
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15 Jan 2013 02:18

Ferminal wrote:Yeh, the Stirling stage could potentially eliminate Kittel who will be dropped as soon as the flag goes down.


Guardini would be with him as well.:o
diggercuz wrote:second post ever after reading the forum for the last few years and one thing i must say, ACF94 is probably the most intelligent poster here, never biased to BMC or Cadel, and never gets worked up over anything.
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15 Jan 2013 02:55

El Pistolero wrote:What other targets are we speaking of here? Degenkolb won 5 Vuelta stages and not a single good sprinter had his eyes set on that one. Cavendish, Greipel, Kittel, Sagan, Boonen, Matthew Goss, Theo Bos, Freire, etc all weren't there. Good luck drawing conclusions from that one. So he's faster than Ben Swift, amazing. His other victories are barely worth mentioning. His fourth place at the WC and his subsequent performance at Paris-Tours was still his best performance of the season.


Wtf are you talking about. I don't care how crap you think degenkolb and the vuelta are. Where in my posts did you see anything about that?

your denial that sprinters want to peak for these races is hilarious.


What denial? i never said they don't want to peak for them some do. But absolutely none of them put anywhere near as much as prep in as boonen, and none of them come into it with his form.



Gent-Wevelgem at least had Cavendish, Greipel, Kittel, Sagan, Boonen, Degenkolb, Freire, Goss, EBH, etc



So by naming all the sprinters there you prove they were all on form? How does that work. No one denied they were there. The contention is that they didn't peak for it.

Did any of them.have a programme dedicated specifically to peaking for the cobbled classics? No, only boonen.


Looks like the sprinters think Gent-Wevelgem is a more important goal than the Vuelta... And that you're wrong. How many sprinters besides Cavendish and Greipel won a Tour de France stage this year anyway? Looks to me that they shouldn't be so picky about what race they're peaking for. ;)


:cool:

You are joking right?

You do realise that the vuelta is a 21 day race with time trials mountains hills etc interspersed between sprint's - and especially the 2012 version with all the hill finishes in the first week.

You do realise that. Its an actual commitment to turn.up for.it. And both gossy and cav learnt the hard way that you need to be serious to turn up at the startline or you are just signing yourself up for pointless pain. Besides many teams take it very seriously and want their riders in good.form.there.

Gw meanwhile is a 1 day race not far from where many of the sprinters are already. You can turn up on a wing and a prayer and.abandon half way in or use it as a prep race to build.form.
The Hitch: Winner 2013 Vuelta cq game. Winner, Velorooms prediction game 2012, 2013. 2nd all time cq rankings.
The Father of Clean Cycling, Christophe Bassons wrote:When I look at cycling today, I get the impression that history is repeating itself: riders who are supposed to be rouleurs are climbing passes at the front of the race, and those who are supposed to be climbers are riding time trials at more than 50 kilometres per hour.

The story is beginning again, just as it did 14 years ago


journalist with integrity.
User avatar The Hitch
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15 Jan 2013 04:12

The Hitch wrote:You do realise that. Its an actual commitment to turn.up for.it. And both gossy and cav learnt the hard way that you need to be serious to turn up at the startline or you are just signing yourself up for pointless pain. Besides many teams take it very seriously and want their riders in good.form.there.


And they had already done the Giro (though Goss abandoned) and TDF- then had to do the Olympics.
I'd agree with you but then we'd both be wrong

The Grand Boucle wasn't just Europe's for the taking.

Quote:VAE
"Has Porte ever dropped Nibali in any mountain?"
D&C "He will soon..."
greenedge
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15 Jan 2013 05:53

badboyberty wrote:Stage 3 will be a smallish group at best. There's really not a flat moment in it so the true sprinters are going to have a hard time. I actually wouldn't be surprised if the breakaway laps the last part of the field as they're doing six laps of the Sterling/Mylor/Aldgate circuit straight off the Old Freeway climb.

Even Stage 1 is more "rolling" than "flat" so the big guys may only have the "Classic", "Stage 4" and "Stage 6".


Early forecasts aren't always terribly accurate but if this one proves to be on the money, then not only will the Stirling stage be one of the deciding stages but it is going to be huge test for the riders fitness with high temps and hot winds forecast. Looking at the 6x loop they do during this stage, it will have a downwind section, a crosswind section and an upwind section. Looks to be a very difficult loop now and a forecast of 39 could quite easily increase into the 40's.


20

Hi: 32 °C
Lo: 15 °C
21

Hi: 33 °C
Lo: 16 °C
22

Hi: 30 °C
Lo: 17 °C
23

Hi: 31 °C
Lo: 19 °C
[color="Red"]24

Hi: 39 °C
[/color]
Lo: 24 °C
25

Hi: 31 °C
Lo: 13 °C
26

Hi: 27 °C
Lo: 13 °C
Australia Day
27

Hi: 29 °C
Lo: 14 °C
28

Hi: 29 °C
Lo: 14 °C
Australia Day
29

Hi: 30 °C
Lo: 15 °C
Wilba60
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15 Jan 2013 06:47

movingtarget wrote:I did not say he couldn't compete, learn to read,


movingtarget wrote:I don't think Goss has the goods to be a successful bunch sprinter in grand tours. He climbs well for a sprinter, and I think he would do better concentrating on the classics instead of green jerseys. Renshaw is probably the same. [color="Red"][SIZE="7"]Can't compete[/SIZE][/color] with Cavendish and the elite bunch sprinters.


:rolleyes:
" wrote:"Don't push me. F*** off."
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15 Jan 2013 07:56

Tuarts wrote::rolleyes:


That's funny :D
seaby71
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15 Jan 2013 10:28

You'd expect very big crowds on the 26th for Australia Day and being the Wilunga stage. It would be extra fun to be there on that day.
diggercuz wrote:second post ever after reading the forum for the last few years and one thing i must say, ACF94 is probably the most intelligent poster here, never biased to BMC or Cadel, and never gets worked up over anything.
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15 Jan 2013 11:19

Tuarts wrote::rolleyes:


My follow up up post contained the following "Plenty of placings and not many wins. Yes he can COMPETE but often positions himself badly and when he does get placed he is often beaten easily. He can obviously sprint, I just think he does it better in smaller groups and in classics, sometimes, Cavendish is already out the back. In 2012 he seemed to have lost some of his bunch kick speed. Maybe also illness or just out of form. I just think Greipel, Cavendish and Sagan are better at the moment and Degenkolb is improving.

Compete was a bad choice of words. But I still stand by my assertion that he won't be a regular bunch sprint winner which probably means he will win five stages in each grand tour he enters this year !
movingtarget
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15 Jan 2013 12:48

The Hitch wrote:Wtf are you talking about. I don't care how crap you think degenkolb and the vuelta are. Where in my posts did you see anything about that?



What denial? i never said they don't want to peak for them some do. But absolutely none of them put anywhere near as much as prep in as boonen, and none of them come into it with his form.





So by naming all the sprinters there you prove they were all on form? How does that work. No one denied they were there. The contention is that they didn't peak for it.

Did any of them.have a programme dedicated specifically to peaking for the cobbled classics? No, only boonen.



:cool:

You are joking right?

You do realise that the vuelta is a 21 day race with time trials mountains hills etc interspersed between sprint's - and especially the 2012 version with all the hill finishes in the first week.

You do realise that. Its an actual commitment to turn.up for.it. And both gossy and cav learnt the hard way that you need to be serious to turn up at the startline or you are just signing yourself up for pointless pain. Besides many teams take it very seriously and want their riders in good.form.there.

Gw meanwhile is a 1 day race not far from where many of the sprinters are already. You can turn up on a wing and a prayer and.abandon half way in or use it as a prep race to build.form.


30% of the Vuelta stages were flat as can be. They take it seriously? Yeah right. That's why everyone calls the Vuelta the least prestigious one. ;)

What's with this cobbled classic nonsense? Gent-Wevelgem has like one cobbled hill 45km from the finishline. Big deal!

Gent-Wevelgem as a prep race? For what exactly? Yeah, the REAL cobbled classics, but the sprinters have no chance in those. The Vuelta on the other hand is the biggest prep race in the world.

If Degenkolb didn't peak for any of those races, or at least try to, then what did he do all season? Wait for the important Vuelta that contained not a single good sprinter? Sheesh, a rider can have multiple peaks you know.

Cavendish' program wasn't really that different of Boonen's, so what are you going on about?

Qatar: both Cav and Boonen.
Oman: both Cav and Boonen
Omloop het Nieuwsblad: only Boonen
Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne: Cav and Boonen
Paris-Nice: Boonen
Tirreno-Adriatico: Cav
Milan-San Remo: both Cav and Boonen
Dwars door Vlaanderen: only Cav
E3 Harelbeke: only Boonen
Gent-Wevelgem: Cav and Boonen

Bolded: one of them(or both) won a race in that event/one day race.

John Degenkolb's program:

Tour of Qatar
Tour de Haut Var
Omloop het Nieuwsblad
Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne
Paris-Nice
Milan-San Remo
E3 Harelbeke
Gent-Wevelgem
Ronde van Vlaanderen
Paris-Roubaix

That's basically Boonen's program. ;)
Ryo Hazuki wrote:horrible. boonen just the same guy as years before and this course is too hard for him. that's why he rode like a coward there were at least 3 guys stronger than boonen today and none of them won: sagan, ballan, pozzato


The Hitch wrote:Goss will woop boonens candy a[color="Black"]ss[/color] in a sprint he cares about, any day of the week
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15 Jan 2013 13:05

El Pistolero wrote:30% of the Vuelta stages were flat as can be. They take it seriously? Yeah right. That's why everyone calls the Vuelta the least prestigious one. ;)

What's with this cobbled classic nonsense? Gent-Wevelgem has like one cobbled hill 45km from the finishline. Big deal!

Gent-Wevelgem as a prep race? For what exactly? Yeah, the REAL cobbled classics, but the sprinters have no chance in those. The Vuelta on the other hand is the biggest prep race in the world.

If Degenkolb didn't peak for any of those races, or at least try to, then what did he do all season? Wait for the important Vuelta that contained not a single good sprinter? Sheesh, a rider can have multiple peaks you know.

The actual discussion before you threw a dozen strawmen into every post, was whether the other sprinters had the same form boonen did when they faced boonen in the spring.

I would propose that they were not, since non of them had anywhere near his preparation and all of them unlike boonen had goals later in the season (whether you take those races seriously or not is irrelevant)

The only arguments you have cone up with to show all the sprinters were on boonens level and that he beat them on sheer talent (surprise surprise) have been 1 sarcastic dismissals of all the other races, and 2 listing all the sprinters that did gw last year- as if by proving their participation you prove their form.
The Hitch: Winner 2013 Vuelta cq game. Winner, Velorooms prediction game 2012, 2013. 2nd all time cq rankings.
The Father of Clean Cycling, Christophe Bassons wrote:When I look at cycling today, I get the impression that history is repeating itself: riders who are supposed to be rouleurs are climbing passes at the front of the race, and those who are supposed to be climbers are riding time trials at more than 50 kilometres per hour.

The story is beginning again, just as it did 14 years ago


journalist with integrity.
User avatar The Hitch
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15 Jan 2013 13:08

The Hitch wrote:The actual discussion before you threw a dozen strawmen into every post, was whether the other sprinters had the same form boonen did when they faced boonen in the spring.

I would propose that they were not, since non of them had anywhere near his preparation and all of them unlike boonen had goals later in the season (whether you take those races seriously or not is irrelevant)

The only arguments you have cone up with to show all the sprinters were on boonens level and that he beat them on sheer talent (surprise surprise) have been 1 sarcastic dismissals of all the other races, and 2 listing all the sprinters that did gw last year- as if by proving their participation you prove their form.


Trying to win the WC for a second time is not a goal anymore? And the WC TTT was also a goal for him. How many sprinters did that? And didn't get dropped.

Just listen to Cav's post-race interviews of races like Gent-Wevelgem. He was even near Boonen at the top of the Kemmelberg, but he messed up on the descent(and then went complaining on twitter lol). Cav's form had to be decent considering he won races in Qatar, Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne and the Tirreno-Adriatico.
Ryo Hazuki wrote:horrible. boonen just the same guy as years before and this course is too hard for him. that's why he rode like a coward there were at least 3 guys stronger than boonen today and none of them won: sagan, ballan, pozzato


The Hitch wrote:Goss will woop boonens candy a[color="Black"]ss[/color] in a sprint he cares about, any day of the week
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15 Jan 2013 13:20

El Pistolero wrote:Trying to win the WC for a second time is not a goal anymore? And the WC TTT was also a goal for him. How many sprinters did that? And didn't get dropped.

Just listen to Cav's post-race interviews of races like Gent-Wevelgem. He was even near Boonen at the top of the Kemmelberg, but he messed up on the descent(and then went complaining on twitter lol). Cav's form had to be decent considering he won races in Qatar, Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne and the Tirreno-Adriatico.



Why is that relevant? He didn't beat cav in the sprint
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15 Jan 2013 13:50

El Pistolero wrote:Trying to win the WC for a second time is not a goal anymore? And the WC TTT was also a goal for him. How many sprinters did that? And didn't get dropped.



Are you seriously trying to say that because he did a ttt and a worlds road race, Boonens post April season was as packed as all the sprinters that did 1-2 gts and numerous stage races?
The Hitch: Winner 2013 Vuelta cq game. Winner, Velorooms prediction game 2012, 2013. 2nd all time cq rankings.
The Father of Clean Cycling, Christophe Bassons wrote:When I look at cycling today, I get the impression that history is repeating itself: riders who are supposed to be rouleurs are climbing passes at the front of the race, and those who are supposed to be climbers are riding time trials at more than 50 kilometres per hour.

The story is beginning again, just as it did 14 years ago


journalist with integrity.
User avatar The Hitch
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15 Jan 2013 13:58

The Hitch wrote:Are you seriously trying to say that because he did a ttt and a worlds road race, Boonens post April season was as packed as all the sprinters that did 1-2 gts and numerous stage races?


Up until last year Boonen rode 2 GTs a year. The reason he didn't this year is because he kept crashing out in them and the Olympics(which was another goal).

Hey, you're the one stating Boonen had no goals after April. So did you watch the Belgian Nats or do you also think that wasn't a goal for Boonen? It's actually a big deal in Belgium.
Ryo Hazuki wrote:horrible. boonen just the same guy as years before and this course is too hard for him. that's why he rode like a coward there were at least 3 guys stronger than boonen today and none of them won: sagan, ballan, pozzato


The Hitch wrote:Goss will woop boonens candy a[color="Black"]ss[/color] in a sprint he cares about, any day of the week
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15 Jan 2013 15:13

Apologies if I have missed where this is discussed, there are a lot of Boonen-Cav-Degenkolb posts to wade through.

Have we got a list of GC contenders?

The ones I have are as follows:

Gerrans / Clarke
Hansen
EBH / Thomas
Haas
Sorensen
Who from Astana?
Who from Movistar?
De Gendt?
Who from OPQS?
De Kort?

I am sure I am missing more than a few.....
barmaher
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15 Jan 2013 15:14

barmaher wrote:Apologies if I have missed where this is discussed, there are a lot of Boonen-Cav-Degenkolb posts to wade through.

Have we got a list of GC contenders?

The ones I have are as follows:

Gerrans / Clarke
Hansen
EBH / Thomas
Haas
Sorensen
Who from Astana?
Who from Movistar?
De Gendt?
Who from OPQS?
De Kort?

I am sure I am missing more than a few.....


Gilbert.

....
Ryo Hazuki wrote:horrible. boonen just the same guy as years before and this course is too hard for him. that's why he rode like a coward there were at least 3 guys stronger than boonen today and none of them won: sagan, ballan, pozzato


The Hitch wrote:Goss will woop boonens candy a[color="Black"]ss[/color] in a sprint he cares about, any day of the week
User avatar El Pistolero
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