Log in:  

Register

2013 Santos Tour Down Under Stage 1: Prospect -> Lobethal, 135km

A place to discuss all things related to current professional road races. Here, you can also touch on the latest news relating to professional road racing. A doping discussion free forum.

2013 Santos Tour Down Under Stage 1: Prospect -> Lobethal, 135km

21 Jan 2013 02:48

2013 Santos Tour Down Under Stage 1: Prospect -> Lobethal, 135km

Start time: 11am local time/11:30am AEDST/1:30am CET
Coverage start time: 1pm AEDST/3am CET on both GEM and ninemsn feed for those overseas.
Likely finish time: 3pm AEDST /5am CET

Map and Profile: http://www.tourdownunder.com.au/documents/2013-stage-1.pdf

http://www.tourdownunder.com.au/start-list.htm

What Stuart O'Grady says...

Checker Hill never gets any easier. It's a really steep climb and it's very early in the race. Many people will be trying to conserve energy as it's the first proper climb. A lot of guys haven't raced yet this year so the heart rate will be going and it hurts a lot.

It's quite a lumpy ride out to Lobethal. We've done some reconnaissance and it's a lot harder than what it looks on paper. It could be a real little surprise package that day. The final 10km of the circuit is really, really tough. Especially as it's the first main race of the year a lot of guys won't have much racing under the belt. It could come as a real shock to the system and come out with a surprise result.

There are plenty of opportunities for attacks and I don't think it's going to come down to a big bunch sprint. It's tough enough to split the field. Even the final sprint to the line is a slight drag uphill. For the first race of the year it's going to really hurt.


Video stage preview
diggercuz wrote:second post ever after reading the forum for the last few years and one thing i must say, ACF94 is probably the most intelligent poster here, never biased to BMC or Cadel, and never gets worked up over anything.
User avatar auscyclefan94
Senior Member
 
Posts: 19,164
Joined: 16 Jun 2009 02:37
Location: Australia

21 Jan 2013 04:19

I think a lot of the sprinters, maybe all of them, will be shut out today by either the break staying away or puncheurs going on the final climb, about 10 kms before the finish.
User avatar wirral
Junior Member
 
Posts: 1,957
Joined: 28 Mar 2011 06:05

21 Jan 2013 04:51

wirral wrote:I think a lot of the sprinters, maybe all of them, will be shut out today by either the break staying away or puncheurs going on the final climb, about 10 kms before the finish.


I don't see all the sprinters being shut out. It's the first pro tour race of the season and everybody wants it.
Unless somebody without a sprinter like BMC are going to make it super hard all day and try to split it up on the little climbs I think the sprint teams will have enough firepower to bring it back together.
Somebody might make a break on the climb but I think they will get brought back in the lead up to the line.
Might make for a really messy sprint if the catch happens late which could really disrupt the trains. If the puncheurs go for it then it might be the best chance for a non sprint dominant teams sprinter, like Guardini or Ferrari

Most likely I see the attacks being nullified and having the big sprinters having a crack
User avatar Tigerion
Junior Member
 
Posts: 370
Joined: 21 Jul 2011 03:23

21 Jan 2013 05:48

Tigerion wrote:I don't see all the sprinters being shut out. It's the first pro tour race of the season and everybody wants it.
Unless somebody without a sprinter like BMC are going to make it super hard all day and try to split it up on the little climbs I think the sprint teams will have enough firepower to bring it back together.
Somebody might make a break on the climb but I think they will get brought back in the lead up to the line.
Might make for a really messy sprint if the catch happens late which could really disrupt the trains. If the puncheurs go for it then it might be the best chance for a non sprint dominant teams sprinter, like Guardini or Ferrari

Most likely I see the attacks being nullified and having the big sprinters having a crack


This favours Machado, a lot :D
User avatar iZnoGouD
Junior Member
 
Posts: 1,251
Joined: 18 Feb 2011 21:39

21 Jan 2013 06:35

Please stop............
User avatar Kazistuta
Junior Member
 
Posts: 1,071
Joined: 19 Mar 2009 06:18
Location: Copenhagen, Denmark

21 Jan 2013 07:09

Will there be a feed?
2013 year review, 90 minutes long. Must see.
http://sporza.be/cm/sporza/videozone/sporten/wielrennen/1.1813237
User avatar Kwibus
Senior Member
 
Posts: 4,482
Joined: 25 May 2010 05:54
Location: the Netherlands

21 Jan 2013 07:15

Kwibus wrote:Will there be a feed?


I think that NINEMSN have streaming live coverage of the final 2 hours each day. Not sure on any region locks but the say they are bringing it to the world so I expect not
User avatar Tigerion
Junior Member
 
Posts: 370
Joined: 21 Jul 2011 03:23

21 Jan 2013 07:51

Greipel.

characters
...[Walsh] thinks we're ahead of the curve. But think about it for a sec. We're building long-lasting, trusting relationships with people who are spending a lot of money - Coke, Nike, Subaru. If we're f***ing lying, we can kiss it all goodbye. And if we were lying we'd do some stupid stuff to try to cover it up, wouldn't we? Does anybody think for a second that a secret that big wouldn't come out? Bill Stapleton
User avatar will10
Senior Member
 
Posts: 6,013
Joined: 27 Dec 2010 14:08

21 Jan 2013 07:52

Why no times in AWST?
Ferminal
Senior Member
 
Posts: 16,747
Joined: 03 Jul 2009 09:42

21 Jan 2013 08:15

Tigerion wrote:I don't see all the sprinters being shut out. It's the first pro tour race of the season and everybody wants it.
Might make for a really messy sprint if the catch happens late which could really disrupt the trains. If the puncheurs go for it then it might be the best chance for a non sprint dominant teams sprinter, like Guardini or Ferrari

Most likely I see the attacks being nullified and having the big sprinters having a crack


I agree with most of your post except for the idea of Guardini surviving to contest the finale, which i deem highly unlikely but if he does hopefully some CQ points can be scored.

I am hoping Goss can win, the finish will be complicated and he looks to have good sprinting legs (best of the rest). All he has to do is beat Greipel- easier said than done. Fenn and Demare could also surprise.
I'd agree with you but then we'd both be wrong

The Grand Boucle wasn't just Europe's for the taking.

Quote:VAE
"Has Porte ever dropped Nibali in any mountain?"
D&C "He will soon..."
User avatar greenedge
Senior Member
 
Posts: 5,123
Joined: 27 Mar 2011 04:23

21 Jan 2013 10:07

it's very hard to see past a Greipel win unless the closing circuit is particularly hard. Anyone ridden it or know it well ? Seems lumpy but not ball breaking. Can a sprint train survive it?

Greipel can be good without the train and no concerns about him sprinting uphill, remember the Tour de France stage where he edged out Goss uphill also but I'd favour a very fit Edvald Boasson Hagen chasing early bonus seconds to give this a lash if it's a lumpy circuit

I agree with the poster who mentioned Andy Fenn, a very typical type finish for him on a lumpy circuit, would suit him no end.
wheelie1977
Junior Member
 
Posts: 92
Joined: 02 Jan 2013 11:44
Location: Ireland

21 Jan 2013 10:41

wheelie1977 wrote:it's very hard to see past a Greipel win unless the closing circuit is particularly hard. Anyone ridden it or know it well ? Seems lumpy but not ball breaking. Can a sprint train survive it?

Greipel can be good without the train and no concerns about him sprinting uphill, remember the Tour de France stage where he edged out Goss uphill also but I'd favour a very fit Edvald Boasson Hagen chasing early bonus seconds to give this a lash if it's a lumpy circuit

I agree with the poster who mentioned Andy Fenn, a very typical type finish for him on a lumpy circuit, would suit him no end.


There is one short hill near the finish which is suppose to be difficult but there is down hill after that hill to the finish, according to the video preview in the opening post.

Ferminal, there are no times in AWST because I could not be bothered to do it for every single time zone in Australia, let alone the areas where the forum posters live.

Kwibus, as stated in the opening thread post, there will be a feed.
diggercuz wrote:second post ever after reading the forum for the last few years and one thing i must say, ACF94 is probably the most intelligent poster here, never biased to BMC or Cadel, and never gets worked up over anything.
User avatar auscyclefan94
Senior Member
 
Posts: 19,164
Joined: 16 Jun 2009 02:37
Location: Australia

21 Jan 2013 10:50

I've ridden the circuit, it won't stress the pros. I think the only thing that will prevent a bunch sprint is if a large breakaway forms on Checkers Hill, and that's a long way from the finish.

See you out there!
Tragic
Junior Member
 
Posts: 119
Joined: 26 Jul 2011 06:44

21 Jan 2013 12:03

Sounds like 20kmhish head or head-cross wind on the straight flat part of the circuit.
Ferminal
Senior Member
 
Posts: 16,747
Joined: 03 Jul 2009 09:42

21 Jan 2013 12:12

Supposedly the finale is an uphill finish, not steep, but could make the difference in who succeeds.
diggercuz wrote:second post ever after reading the forum for the last few years and one thing i must say, ACF94 is probably the most intelligent poster here, never biased to BMC or Cadel, and never gets worked up over anything.
User avatar auscyclefan94
Senior Member
 
Posts: 19,164
Joined: 16 Jun 2009 02:37
Location: Australia

21 Jan 2013 13:57

Too hard for Guardini, but not too hard for Greipel,
Greipel FTW
User avatar the asian
Senior Member
 
Posts: 3,365
Joined: 20 Jan 2011 18:09
Location: Colombo

21 Jan 2013 14:05

the time zone thingy confuses me, when does this start on the TV? :o:p
"I know how to ride my bike" - Nibali

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w9LBsWCNE9I

Vuelta 06 - the greatest gt in history!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24TQdI7csHs
User avatar Vino attacks everyone
Senior Member
 
Posts: 5,341
Joined: 05 May 2011 16:26

21 Jan 2013 15:16

roberto ferrari's first win of the season
Vino 4ever
User avatar jens_attacks
Senior Member
 
Posts: 12,097
Joined: 08 Sep 2009 18:00

21 Jan 2013 15:21

Vino attacks everyone wrote:the time zone thingy confuses me, when does this start on the TV? :o:p


TV coverage starts at 1 pm Australian time, or just under 11 hours from now ;).

Personally I'm delighted to see the season proper start, and even more so to watch it on HD. Most of the rest of the season, I'm stuck with streams of varying quality, so this is a bit of a novelty :D
User avatar Alphabet
Junior Member
 
Posts: 815
Joined: 21 Oct 2012 03:01
Location: The yard

21 Jan 2013 17:58

Greipel or Goss for the win, depending on which team implements the better leadout train.
Guardini to survive and score me some CQ points. :D
And I predict, with everyone hungry for that first win, we will see the first crash of the season.
Be the Goat

Fabio Aru: "si muore sulla bici"
User avatar Afrank
Senior Member
 
Posts: 9,050
Joined: 16 Aug 2011 21:58
Location: Oregon

Next

Return to Professional road racing

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Asero831, Bernie's eyesore, Dazed and Confused, Google [Bot], Google Adsense [Bot], lemon cheese cake, Molteni and 35 guests

Back to top