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Santos Tour Down Under Stage 2 Mt. Barker to Rostrevor 116.5km

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Santos Tour Down Under Stage 2 Mt. Barker to Rostrevor 116.5km

22 Jan 2013 15:02

So this stage sees the first time GC contenders for the Tour Down Under will show their hands.

Here is your profile:

_______^______^________/\


The forecast is for a dry, hot and sunny day, with temperatures reaching 31 degrees Celsius. Windy enough, too. With winds blowing from the south to south-east at around 20km to 30km/h.

The stage is a rolling stage through the suburbs of south Adelaide. It is not until the last 20km of the stage that things get interesting. There will be a quick sharp ascent of Corkscrew Road, which crests 7km before the finish, followed by a long descent all the way to the chequered flag. The climb is 3.7km long and the gradient hits 10%.

If we can forget the missing 190km, the fact that contenders are not fully cooked, the conditions and the strength of the field, this is not too dissimilar to Milan San Remo. So defending champion Simon Gerrans is an obvious starting point when it comes to finding a winner. With last year’s TDU runner-up Alejandro Valverde sidestepping the race this year, it is left to men who finished ahead of him in last year’s World Championship, Edvald Boasson Hagen and Philippe Gilbert to attempt to unsettle the Orica Greenedge leader. EBH will be hoping to get away in a select group in the final climb, and rely on his sprint at the end. World champion Gilbert will be one of those expected to put in a searing dig on the Corkscrew Road, with a solo to victory more than possible if he can get 5 seconds at the top.

Others who have shown their hand in tough classics are likely to be fancied by many onlookers. Gasporotto, Visconti, Slagter, Rojas, Ponzi and Iglinskiy can all be fancied to go well.

The climb will surely be too much for Gorilla Greipel, and it looks like former MSR winner and Bros frontman is in bad form.

I think Gilbert will win, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Astana have a big say in proceedings.

A race (or at least 20km) to savour.
barmaher
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22 Jan 2013 15:08

Andy ftw :D
User avatar TeoSheva
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22 Jan 2013 15:11

I think Gilbert will win solo, a few seconds ahead of a small group of around 10 people. Something like:

1. Gilbert
2. EBH +8 seconds
3. Gerrans s.t
maltiv
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22 Jan 2013 15:17

astana vs phil vs geraint thomas

kash is a great descender so i expect an easy win
Vino 4ever
User avatar jens_attacks
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22 Jan 2013 15:17

maltiv wrote:I think Gilbert will win solo, a few seconds ahead of a small group of around 10 people. Something like:

1. Gilbert
2. EBH +8 seconds
3. Gerrans s.t

I think Geraint Thomas will win, just to p.ss you off ;)
theyoungest
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22 Jan 2013 15:27

EBH win with a GT leadout from a group of 12
BlenJones2
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22 Jan 2013 15:36

theyoungest wrote:I think Geraint Thomas will win, just to p.ss you off ;)

After all he has won the grand amount of 0 road stages in his career, so that's a great prediction :p

It wouldn't **** me off though, I like G, I just think he is massively overrated. He has done nothing to justify this hype, except from being British and everyone all of a sudden expecting Brits to become master-climbers out of nowhere when they reach 26 years.
maltiv
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22 Jan 2013 15:49

I think Thomas is mainly hyped on the cobbles without any results there right? not so much for climbing without showing any results there. Though, he seems to be both explosive, judging from prologue and lead-out performances and able to climb a little bit; who knows what will happen this year, now that he's focusing on again. :)
User avatar Maaaaaaaarten
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22 Jan 2013 15:49

maltiv wrote:After all he has won the grand amount of 0 road stages in his career, so that's a great prediction :p

It wouldn't **** me off though, I like G, I just think he is massively overrated. He has done nothing to justify this hype, except from being British and everyone all of a sudden expecting Brits to become master-climbers out of nowhere when they reach 26 years.

Yes, there's 30 or more riders in this race with as big a chance as him, but that's the Anglophone bonus on Anglophone websites.
theyoungest
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22 Jan 2013 15:54

theyoungest wrote:Yes, there's 30 or more riders in this race with as big a chance as him, but that's the Anglophone bonus on Anglophone websites.



And you know what's best ? If I read correctly it wasn't even mostly / at all users from Britain hyping him....

I am sure Dekker_Tifosi and Jens_attacks are no really from UK, are they ? :rolleyes:
Gloin22
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22 Jan 2013 16:05

Gilbert to go head to head with Gerrans for the win, I don't think I have to say who I think will come out the victor. ;)
Also hoping Ponzi can get another high placing.
User avatar Afrank
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22 Jan 2013 16:10

Gloin22 wrote:And you know what's best ? If I read correctly it wasn't even mostly / at all users from Britain hyping him....

I am sure Dekker_Tifosi and Jens_attacks are no really from UK, are they ? :rolleyes:

I don't mean on this forum, I mean in general previews of this race. On this forum, I hyped him myself ;)

Jens_attacks will hype anyone whom he suspects is on some kind of program.
theyoungest
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22 Jan 2013 16:15

How's Machado's sprint and descending skills?

Not that it would matter that much anyway, as he'll probably attack 3km before the hill and be exhausted at the bottom of it.
User avatar Squire
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22 Jan 2013 16:26

what is the profile of that final climb?
User avatar Ryo Hazuki
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22 Jan 2013 16:42

Ryo Hazuki wrote:what is the profile of that final climb?

Don't know where I found the description, but it contains 15% sections and a few switchbacks.
theyoungest
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22 Jan 2013 16:45

Gloin22 wrote:And you know what's best ? If I read correctly it wasn't even mostly / at all users from Britain hyping him....

I am sure Dekker_Tifosi and Jens_attacks are no really from UK, are they ? :rolleyes:


Your Sky sensor is almost as good as Flo's Contador one.
...[Walsh] thinks we're ahead of the curve. But think about it for a sec. We're building long-lasting, trusting relationships with people who are spending a lot of money - Coke, Nike, Subaru. If we're f***ing lying, we can kiss it all goodbye. And if we were lying we'd do some stupid stuff to try to cover it up, wouldn't we? Does anybody think for a second that a secret that big wouldn't come out? Bill Stapleton
User avatar will10
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22 Jan 2013 17:26

Squire wrote:How's Machado's sprint and descending skills?

Not that it would matter that much anyway, as he'll probably attack 3km before the hill and be exhausted at the bottom of it.


He won't need sprint

He won't be exhausted because he is at a whole new level this year

Image

[SIZE="7"]
ALLEZ MACHADO!!!
[/SIZE]
User avatar iZnoGouD
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22 Jan 2013 17:28

Machado without a doubt.
Peter Sagan:
"I under-evaluated him (Gerald Ciolek) a little bit. I was watching Cancellara, who was trying to break free, and maybe I did too much work," Sagan said. "Ciolek stayed in the wheels and he took my wheel to do the sprint and was able to beat me. I went too early in the sprint."


17/03/13 Milan - San Remo

Peter Sagan:
“We went away in a break on the Oude Kwaremont, but then Cancellara went for it on the Paterberg and I wasn’t able to follow him,”


31/03/13 Tour of Flanders
User avatar HiCadence
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22 Jan 2013 18:06

Ryo Hazuki wrote:what is the profile of that final climb?


Image

It's not very accurate, but it'll give you an idea what type of rider can win here.
User avatar Pentacycle
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22 Jan 2013 18:07

iZnoGouD wrote:He won't need sprint

He won't be exhausted because he is at a whole new level this year


That sounds nice. Perhaps he'll even get his first win in 5 years then? Oh well, one can only dream.
Ryo Hazuki wrote:contador is such a coward :o
User avatar Hugo Koblet
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