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Will Nibali ever win the Tour?

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Will Nibali ever win the Tour?

Poll ended at 14 May 2013 21:21

Yes
20
17%
No
100
83%
 
Total votes : 120

04 Feb 2013 13:07

Netserk wrote:He can do well on hard mtfs, as long as there isn't many back-to-back mountain stages.


He can not keep up with the best of the best climbers when a real battle starts. I'm not saying it is impossible. That is just something we haven't seen thus far.
User avatar airstream
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04 Feb 2013 13:07

Vino attacks everyone wrote:He can do well on a hard mountain stage indeed. Is it a follow AC, Froome, and Andy well, or a beat VDB2 well? i a not so sure :o

I would say he did more than just 'beating-VDB2-well' on Zonc in '11 :cool:
Cancellara is like The Black Album. Really good but way overrated.
User avatar Netserk
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04 Feb 2013 13:16

Jason_Mercier wrote:Gesink did 5th but never was one of the three bests riders in his terrain. And TVG yes. We saw it in Besançon, the best gt rider in the TT only after Wiggins and Froome.

Tejay lost 3 minutes on La Planche des Belles Filles. He finished 46th! A bad day like that is usually unforgivable, however he had the luck of 100 k of time trialing and no particularly good time trialists other than Wiggo and Froomey.

Gesink actually was one of the three best climbers on Tourmalet. He pulled for almost the entire climb, unfortunately he got swamped in the final k.
theyoungest
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04 Feb 2013 13:17

Miburo wrote:That's true, nibali is neither but that doesn't mean van garderen is better.

He couldn't even follow the sky train, his climbing abilities are still a question. It depends on how good he'll become at it the next years.


He is young and he made enourmous step forward in comparison to how he had climbed before. And yet unlike Nibali his racer pedigree is obviously for the Tour.

Even? Ah, sorry, I always forget that the train is not a level for you.
User avatar airstream
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04 Feb 2013 13:27

airstream wrote:He is young and he made enourmous step forward in comparison to how he had climbed before. And yet unlike Nibali his racer pedigree is obviously for the Tour.

Even? Ah, sorry, I always forget that the train is not a level for you.


Kreuziger also had great progression a few years ago, suddenly it can stop.

We'll see if he confirm/improve it.
User avatar Miburo
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04 Feb 2013 14:12

theyoungest wrote:Tejay lost 3 minutes on La Planche des Belles Filles. He finished 46th! A bad day like that is usually unforgivable, however he had the luck of 100 k of time trialing and no particularly good time trialists other than Wiggo and Froomey.

Gesink actually was one of the three best climbers on Tourmalet. He pulled for almost the entire climb, unfortunately he got swamped in the final k.


PLEASE. So where were the other good time triallists? Who are? Contador and?

Second question: Tell me who were the three bests GC guys on the TTs of the last Tour de France. Wiggins, Froome and... :D

Now tell me who were the three, four and five bests climbers of the 2010 Tour de France. I'll give u the answer: Contador, Andy, Samuel, Menchov and Van Den Broeck.
Not Gesink in the Top5 of his speciality. On the other hand Van Garderen was the third best GT guy in the TT of the last TDF. I dont have more questions:D
User avatar Jason_Mercier
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04 Feb 2013 14:20

Miburo wrote:That's true, nibali is neither but that doesn't mean van garderen is better.

He couldn't even follow the sky train.

And what happened in La Toussuire, Bagneres de Luchon and Peyragudes stages?
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04 Feb 2013 14:38

Why people underrate TJ? In La Toussouire stage he could have stayed in the favourites group but he worked for Evans. In Bagneres de Luchon stage he stayed in the favourites group with Van Den Broeck or Valverde only after Wiggins, Nibali and Froome. In the Peyragudes stage he stayed with Wiggins, Froome or Nibali until the last km of the final ascent... Why people cant see that? Seems that they only remember the Belles Filles day. We are not talking about a a time triallist who cant climb nothing. The guy has very good climbing skills.
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04 Feb 2013 14:47

Miburo wrote:Kreuziger also had great progression a few years ago, suddenly it can stop.

We'll see if he confirm/improve it.


no he didn;t ever since turning pro his level was stuck. as a junior he was pretty much as good as he is now.
User avatar Ryo Hazuki
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04 Feb 2013 15:26

Jason_Mercier wrote:PLEASE. So where were the other good time triallists? Who are? Contador and?

Second question: Tell me who were the three bests GC guys on the TTs of the last Tour de France. Wiggins, Froome and... :D

Now tell me who were the three, four and five bests climbers of the 2010 Tour de France. I'll give u the answer: Contador, Andy, Samuel, Menchov and Van Den Broeck.
Not Gesink in the Top5 of his speciality. On the other hand Van Garderen was the third best GT guy in the TT of the last TDF. I dont have more questions:D

This is simply not true, as Gesink actually took time on VDB uphill, while working for Menchov... VDB was better on the cobbles.

Van Garderen did seem to get stronger where others faltered, I'll give you that. But I'd be surprised if he makes the top-5 in the Tour again this year, too much climbing. Whereas Nibali easily could (if he didn't ride the Giro).
theyoungest
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04 Feb 2013 17:12

im still sure Gesink has a better shot than Nibali. But even for Gesink it's normally impossible to beat Contador, Froome or andy
BYOP88 wrote:Great to see that Porte has rediscovered his 2010/11 climbing form. Hope he can keep it for the rest of the Tour and year.
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04 Feb 2013 17:30

I don't think it'll ever happen, but under special circumstances he might have a shot.



Special circumstances = OP 2.0 :D
User avatar SafeBet
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04 Feb 2013 17:54

theyoungest wrote:This is simply not true, as Gesink actually took time on VDB uphill, while working for Menchov... VDB was better on the cobbles.

Van Garderen did seem to get stronger where others faltered, I'll give you that. But I'd be surprised if he makes the top-5 in the Tour again this year, too much climbing. Whereas Nibali easily could (if he didn't ride the Giro).


Of course Nibali easily could. Today Nibali is better rider than Van Garderen but the american has more potential IMO. I think Tejay can do a Top5 but i dont see him in the podium. I have no doubts that he will be one of the best eight climbers of the race. I only see Contador, Froome, Van Den Broeck, Pinot, Rolland, Valverde and Purito ahead him in the mountain. And with the 60 kms of ITT this is enough to get a Top5.
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04 Feb 2013 18:02

Jason_Mercier wrote:Of course Nibali easily could. Today Nibali is better rider than Van Garderen but the american has more potential IMO.
If he fixes his brain, yes.
Do you want to watch better bike racing? => Team radios (not race radio) must go!
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05 Feb 2013 13:33

From what we have seen so far, Nibali cannot win the Tour nor can Gesink and VDB simply because there is three or four riders ahead of them maybe more if Valverde and Rodriguez can repeat their Vuelta form which is no sure thing. Froome, Wiggins and Contador are superior at the moment then you also have Evans and Ryder plus some of the younger riders who are behind Nibali but not by much. I think Nibali attacks often at the wrong time. If he improves his tactics and his climbing he will have a much better chance. At the same I would say that Nibali, Ryder and Rodriguez showed the most improvement amongst the GC riders last year with TJVG as the most improved younger rider.
movingtarget
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05 Feb 2013 14:13

NIbali can win the Tour, but he needs a bit more than average luck.
Dazed and Confused
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05 Feb 2013 14:29

Dazed and Confused wrote:NIbali can win the Tour, but he needs a bit more than average luck.


If that's his only shot at winning the Tour, then it's probably the same for 10 or more other riders, who can win the Tour with a lot of luck.

It makes more sense to estimate the chance of a 'lucky' rider to win the Tour. 9/10 times the strongest, or at least one of the clear favourites, wins.
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05 Feb 2013 14:46

Pentacycle wrote:If that's his only shot at winning the Tour, then it's probably the same for 10 or more other riders, who can win the Tour with a lot of luck.

It makes more sense to estimate the chance of a 'lucky' rider to win the Tour. 9/10 times the strongest, or at least one of the clear favourites, wins.


yep, which is why this particular poll will be very predictable.
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07 Feb 2013 00:50

no chance unless he improves drastically . his mountain attacks are short and sporadic looking at last years TDF . sky had no problem whatsoever reeling him back in .
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07 Feb 2013 02:48

shades1 wrote:no chance unless he improves drastically . his mountain attacks are short and sporadic looking at last years TDF . sky had no problem whatsoever reeling him back in .


Sky had no problem whatsoever reeling anybody back in, to be fair.
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