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2013 Tour of Oman (11th-16th February), 2.HC

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12 Feb 2013 13:53

wheelie1977 wrote:that's inaccurate - Kittel wasn't favourite yesterday according to most and Sagan wasn't either today - accorinf to the professional bookmaking firm


Kittel was the favourite at Bet365, Sportingbet on stage 1, and so was Sagan on stage 2.
User avatar Damiano
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12 Feb 2013 13:54

Lanark wrote:Uhh? It wasn't a total disaster, but losing 2 minutes in such an easy stage doesn't look good, with most of his competitors in the front group. Most people who finished behind him probably didn't even bother.


He nearly lost an arm and he's never been a climber. He finished in the same group as the likes of Alexander Kristoff and in front of Goss, Devolder, Cataldo, Degenkolb, Kittel(no surprise there lol), so yeah that's pretty good. He also lost time last year on stage 2 which was a lot easier.

"Most of his competiters"? Who would that be? Sagan is the most all-round cyclist there is now, he can climb much better than Boonen. Or do you mean Luigi? Lol.

Unlike most of the guys in front of him, it's also his first race of the season.

Anyway, he's going to do another stage race before Paris-Nice, which he normally doesn't.
Ryo Hazuki wrote:horrible. boonen just the same guy as years before and this course is too hard for him. that's why he rode like a coward there were at least 3 guys stronger than boonen today and none of them won: sagan, ballan, pozzato


The Hitch wrote:Goss will woop boonens candy a[color="Black"]ss[/color] in a sprint he cares about, any day of the week
User avatar El Pistolero
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12 Feb 2013 14:08

El Pistolero wrote:He nearly lost an arm and he's never been a climber. He finished in the same group as the likes of Alexander Kristoff and in front of Goss, Devolder, Cataldo, Degenkolb, Kittel(no surprise there lol), so yeah that's pretty good. He also lost time last year on stage 2 which was a lot easier.

"Most of his competiters"? Who would that be? Sagan is the most all-round cyclist there is now, he can climb much better than Boonen. Or do you mean Luigi? Lol.

Unlike most of the guys in front of him, it's also his first race of the season.

Anyway, he's going to do another stage race before Paris-Nice, which he normally doesn't.


Terpstra is hardly a great climber either, and he finished in the first group. That shows that anybody in good shape that cared about the stage could finish in front. Losing 2 minutes on a stage like this is pretty much a worst case scenario, or do you think that more than 40 people even bother in a stage in Oman? He has a loooooong way to go the get at the same level as the likes of Sagan, Cancellara and Gilbert (who'll only improve in the coming weeks as well). I hope he'll be there, the classics have a poor enough field with him, but at this moment to say he did well and is looking good sounds like some major-fanboy dream. The Omloop will give some more information.
Lanark
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12 Feb 2013 14:09

Damiano wrote:Kittel was the favourite at Bet365, Sportingbet on stage 1, and so was Sagan on stage 2.


ok can we put this to bed now. i'm not going to go through every bookmaker.

The biggest online bookmaker is Paddy Power. It has 3 Australian affiliates. In all of those 4, in Stage 1, Peter Sagan and Matt Goss were historic favorite, Kittel was 8/1 4th favourite.

After some gambling by us all, Kittel was made favourite.

exactly the same for stage 2 check the price history. Kittel ws 13/8 favourite at 6.15 GMT last evening, Sagan was 3rd favourite at 10/1 behind Goss.

If you doubt me, by all means then go and check as to when they opened their markets. BET365 made their market quite late last night as did Sporting Bet.
wheelie1977
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12 Feb 2013 14:12

Lanark wrote:Terpstra is hardly a great climber either, and he finished in the first group. That shows that anybody in good shape that cared about the stage could finish in front. Losing 2 minutes on a stage like this is pretty much a worst case scenario, or do you think that more than 40 people even bother in a stage in Oman? He has a loooooong way to go the get at the same level as the likes of Sagan, Cancellara and Gilbert (who'll only improve in the coming weeks as well). I hope he'll be there, the classics have a poor enough field with him, but at this moment to say he did well and is looking good sounds like some major-fanboy dream. The Omloop will give some more information.


Terpstra has always been a better climber than Boonen. Do you watch cycling, like ever?

It's his FIRST race after a bad winter(2 serious infections that got him hospitalized), so yeah he's looking good. Andy Schleck can't even finish a bike race.

Gilbert is obviously peaking for the Ardennes classics, not the Flemish classics and definitely not Milan-San Remo. Cancellara was minutes ahead of Boonen last year in Oman. That doesn't say a thing.

Anyway, there's no one denying that the likes of Terpstra are ahead of him right now. But they haven't been hospitalized 2 times this winter and have already raced. For his first race after a bad winter, yes, Boonen is looking good.
Ryo Hazuki wrote:horrible. boonen just the same guy as years before and this course is too hard for him. that's why he rode like a coward there were at least 3 guys stronger than boonen today and none of them won: sagan, ballan, pozzato


The Hitch wrote:Goss will woop boonens candy a[color="Black"]ss[/color] in a sprint he cares about, any day of the week
User avatar El Pistolero
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12 Feb 2013 14:19

El Pistolero wrote:Terpstra has always been a better climber than Boonen. Do you watch cycling, like ever?

It's his FIRST race after a bad winter(2 serious infections that got him hospitalized), so yeah he's looking good. Andy Schleck can't even finish a bike race.

Gilbert is obviously peaking for the Ardennes classics, not the Flemish classics and definitely not Milan-San Remo. Cancellara was minutes ahead of Boonen last year in Oman. That doesn't say a thing.


Wow, why the agression suddenly? Losing 2 minutes on a stage like this is pretty much as bad as it gets. There could be a number of reasons, maybe he just is quite bad at this point, maybe he didn't bother, went easy on the descent etc. But saying it's a good sign seems extremely far fetched. I don't see how comparing him to a joke like Andy Schleck matters. And the fact that Gilbert is peaking for the Ardennes only works against Boonen, I hope you understand.
Lanark
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12 Feb 2013 14:19

El Pistolero wrote:and definitely not Milan-San Remo.

He should, the Poggio is made for guys like him. Phil that is.
il Mito wrote:“I’m in pension, I don’t give a **** about training,” Ferrari said. “They are all strong without me. Did you see the Tour de France?”
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12 Feb 2013 14:23

wheelie1977 wrote:ok can we put this to bed now. i'm not going to go through every bookmaker.

The biggest online bookmaker is Paddy Power. It has 3 Australian affiliates. In all of those 4, in Stage 1, Peter Sagan and Matt Goss were historic favorite, Kittel was 8/1 4th favourite.

After some gambling by us all, Kittel was made favourite.

exactly the same for stage 2 check the price history. Kittel ws 13/8 favourite at 6.15 GMT last evening, Sagan was 3rd favourite at 10/1 behind Goss.

If you doubt me, by all means then go and check as to when they opened their markets. BET365 made their market quite late last night as did Sporting Bet.


I don't doubt you - I just don't rate Paddy Power as a very good bookmaker because of their crazy limits.

And one bookmaker is hardly enough to be "according to most"
User avatar Damiano
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12 Feb 2013 14:25

El Pistolero wrote:He nearly lost an arm and he's never been a climber. He finished in the same group as the likes of Alexander Kristoff and in front of Goss, Devolder, Cataldo, Degenkolb, Kittel(no surprise there lol), so yeah that's pretty good. He also lost time last year on stage 2 which was a lot easier.

"Most of his competiters"? Who would that be? Sagan is the most all-round cyclist there is now, he can climb much better than Boonen. Or do you mean Luigi? Lol.

Unlike most of the guys in front of him, it's also his first race of the season.

Anyway, he's going to do another stage race before Paris-Nice, which he normally doesn't.


Sorry to break the news to you but he finished 10 seconds down on Degenkolb
del1962
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12 Feb 2013 14:27

Lanark wrote:Wow, why the agression suddenly? Losing 2 minutes on a stage like this is pretty much as bad as it gets. There could be a number of reasons, maybe he just is quite bad at this point, maybe he didn't bother, went easy on the descent etc. But saying it's a good sign seems extremely far fetched. I don't see how comparing him to a joke like Andy Schleck matters. And the fact that Gilbert is peaking for the Ardennes only works against Boonen, I hope you understand.


Because you seem to fail to understand a whole lot of things:

- It's his first race: I was expecting far worse.
- He was hospitalized for a couple of weeks because of a bowel infection.
- Hospitalized for another week because of a serious elbow infection.
- Had to skip San Luis.
- Had to skip one of his favorite races, Qatar.
- He's not a climber and has always lost so much time on similar stages.

And no, Gilbert is naturally a better climber than Boonen, I hope you understand that.
Ryo Hazuki wrote:horrible. boonen just the same guy as years before and this course is too hard for him. that's why he rode like a coward there were at least 3 guys stronger than boonen today and none of them won: sagan, ballan, pozzato


The Hitch wrote:Goss will woop boonens candy a[color="Black"]ss[/color] in a sprint he cares about, any day of the week
User avatar El Pistolero
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12 Feb 2013 14:33

Anyway, to stray from all the 'Oh! My! Gawd! Boonen finished only 2 minutes down!!!1!!' talk, John Degenkolb should really have done better on a stage like this.
theyoungest
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12 Feb 2013 14:35

El Pistolero wrote:Because you seem to fail to understand a whole lot of things:

- It's his first race: I was expecting far worse.
- He was hospitalized for a couple of weeks because of a bowel infection.
- Hospitalized for another week because of a serious elbow infection.
- Had to skip San Luis.
- Had to skip one of his favorite races, Qatar.
- He's not a climber and has always lost so much time on similar stages.

And no, Gilbert is naturally a better climber than Boonen, I hope you understand that.


Bolded the relevant parts, the rest only explain why he is in bad shape, they don't prove that he is doing better than expected. When you try to answer the question if he'll be a 100% for the classics (or good enough to win), repeating why he is in bad shape now doesn't help to answer that. I know that saying that Boonen didn't do good today (assuming he actually tried, I don't know that) seems to be a personal insult to you, but it's just an analysis of the facts of the day. I'll try to be more sensitive next time.
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12 Feb 2013 14:37

stage 1 is on cyclingtorrents. I don't know if it was posted before.
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12 Feb 2013 14:39

Lanark wrote:Bolded the relevant parts, the rest only explain why he is in bad shape, they don't prove that he is doing better than expected. When you try to answer the question if he'll be a 100% for the classics (or good enough to win), repeating why he is in bad shape now doesn't help to answer that. I know that saying that Boonen didn't do good today (assuming he actually tried, I don't know that) seems to be a personal insult to you, but it's just an analysis of the facts of the day. I'll try to be more sensitive next time.


Boonen did do good today considering the context. Which you are happily ignoring. Perhaps I should be more sensitive to you next time. :D

I'm not trying to answer the question whether he'll be 100% for the classics, I'm glad he has a decent level already. I'm not sure you understand the severity of his injuries this winter. If he had been to the hospital a day later, the doctors would've had to amputate his arm. Considering all that, losing less than 2 minutes on a stage not suited to him is good news to me. ;)
Ryo Hazuki wrote:horrible. boonen just the same guy as years before and this course is too hard for him. that's why he rode like a coward there were at least 3 guys stronger than boonen today and none of them won: sagan, ballan, pozzato


The Hitch wrote:Goss will woop boonens candy a[color="Black"]ss[/color] in a sprint he cares about, any day of the week
User avatar El Pistolero
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12 Feb 2013 14:39

McLovin wrote:stage 1 is on cyclingtorrents. I don't know if it was posted before.


there is also something on youtube

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1QMuNFtwgY&feature=player_embedded
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12 Feb 2013 14:41

Fearless Greg Lemond wrote:He should, the Poggio is made for guys like him. Phil that is.


Milan-San Remo is a lottery race, he doesn't want to build his season around it because of that.
Ryo Hazuki wrote:horrible. boonen just the same guy as years before and this course is too hard for him. that's why he rode like a coward there were at least 3 guys stronger than boonen today and none of them won: sagan, ballan, pozzato


The Hitch wrote:Goss will woop boonens candy a[color="Black"]ss[/color] in a sprint he cares about, any day of the week
User avatar El Pistolero
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12 Feb 2013 14:46

Boonen got dropped on the dam stage last year but somehow not getting over a steep hill in the final 10km is worrying?
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12 Feb 2013 14:48

El Pistolero wrote:Boonen did do good today considering the context. Which you are happily ignoring. Perhaps I should be more sensitive to you next time. :D

I'm not trying to answer the question whether he'll be 100% for the classics, I'm glad he has a decent level already. I'm not sure you understand the severity of his injuries this winter. If he had been to the hospital a day later, the doctors would've had to amputate his arm. Considering all that, losing less than 2 minutes on a stage not suited to him is good news to me. ;)


Yes, I am ignoring the context because it's irrelevant. If I was saying that Boonen was bad because he was slacking this winter or going to too much coke-party's then it would be relevant to bring up his injuries. I'm only interested in Boonen in so far as if he'll be able to spice up the classics (it's not like there'll be any important races he can win after Paris-Roubaix), whether he is doing good 'considering' doesn't really matter to me, it's how good he is that matter to me. I guess we are aproaching it from different POV's, you are glad he isn't Andy-level bad, I'm dissapointed that if he is to be a major player in the classics this isn't very promising (again, assuming he tried).
Lanark
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12 Feb 2013 14:50

Lanark wrote:Yes, I am ignoring the context because it's irrelevant. If I was saying that Boonen was bad because he was slacking this winter or going to too much coke-party's then it would be relevant to bring up his injuries. I'm only interested in Boonen in so far as if he'll be able to spice up the classics (it's not like there'll be any important races he can win after Paris-Roubaix), whether he is doing good 'considering' doesn't really matter to me, it's how good he is that matter to me. I guess we are aproaching it from different POV's, you are glad he isn't Andy-level bad, I'm dissapointed that if he is to be a major player in the classics this isn't very promising (again, assuming he tried).


Like I already said, this time loss is very comparable to times lost in previous years on similar stages. And he still did great in the classic those years. Boonen is not a climber, no one that weights over 80kg should be able to climb.

8% at 1.6 miles is definitely out of Boonen's capabilities.
Ryo Hazuki wrote:horrible. boonen just the same guy as years before and this course is too hard for him. that's why he rode like a coward there were at least 3 guys stronger than boonen today and none of them won: sagan, ballan, pozzato


The Hitch wrote:Goss will woop boonens candy a[color="Black"]ss[/color] in a sprint he cares about, any day of the week
User avatar El Pistolero
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12 Feb 2013 15:06

Well, then you agree that Cancellara is a better rider than Boonen ;)
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