MADRAZO wrote:I dont know the size of the bookies, but as a generel rule paddypowers compiler is horribly bad and makes huge mistakes over and over, so they can not at all be used as a measure of the bookies favourites. I dont know why they have not found a better compiler yet at paddypower but they have been horrible for years. But one thing is for sure, if I could bet there I would not share their gifts causing them even more loses, so that they will change the compiler sooner.
Bet365 and to a lesser extend Sportingbet is the bookies that will normaly define the market (they are also the odds that plenty of other bookies will copy later), along with betfair when they have odds, and both of these obviously started out with Kittel as huge favourite for stage 1 and Sagan as a even bigger favourite for stage 2, as this was pretty obvious for both stages, and trust me they do not adjust to paddypower prices before they release.
How can I trust you :-)
Look this was all a timing issue. Paddy Power & its brother and its sister priced up very early. They got taken to the cleaners. I wholeheardedly agree that they are not the best when looking at prices as to who the favourite is but no one is debating who the REAL favourite should have been. So everything that is argued here after that point is irrelevant. The earlier poster simply stated that Sagan was the favourite in BET365. There is no doubt he was. But BET365 didn't put their market online for about 4 hours after Paddy Power had offered theirs. Regardless of whether they had their own pricing or not, BET365 must have laughed a little and saw the price of Sagan plummet between 6.15 and 7 o clock GMT last night. Paddy power then pulled the plug. BET365 and others then come rolling into the night sky with their market which, shock horror disbelief!, has Sagan as favourite :-) Totally unconnected to all the betting that had gone on in the Paddy Power markets, i'm sure....
anyway, this is a cycling forum, not a bookies forum. we were all lucky to get 10/1 about today's win with the Irish bookmaker. It should be dropped.
Who for tomorrow? I'd imagine Sagan will wheelie his way to the finish but Green Edge could have a few spoilers for the minor placings.
Could Contador attack a la Velits 2012 and repel the chasers this time ? Nibali and co lost seconds to Sagan here last year. Could be a chance for one of the climbers to take a chance.