Log in:  

Register

2013 Tour of Oman (11th-16th February), 2.HC

A place to discuss all things related to current professional road races. Here, you can also touch on the latest news relating to professional road racing. A doping discussion free forum.

12 Feb 2013 16:30

barmaher wrote:But what is the clinic comment he makes?


The 0.00005 thing so nothing really clinic-y.

How can contador have been caught on the descent when at least 3 other riders were over the final climb before him though.


Where can you see who were over the climb first?
"The second place is not good."
The great Alberto Contador :p
User avatar LaFlorecita
Senior Member
 
Posts: 18,839
Joined: 15 May 2011 09:53
Location: Utrecht, The Netherlands

12 Feb 2013 16:34

wheelie1977 wrote:ok can we put this to bed now. i'm not going to go through every bookmaker.

The biggest online bookmaker is Paddy Power. It has 3 Australian affiliates. In all of those 4, in Stage 1, Peter Sagan and Matt Goss were historic favorite, Kittel was 8/1 4th favourite.

After some gambling by us all, Kittel was made favourite.

exactly the same for stage 2 check the price history. Kittel ws 13/8 favourite at 6.15 GMT last evening, Sagan was 3rd favourite at 10/1 behind Goss.

If you doubt me, by all means then go and check as to when they opened their markets. BET365 made their market quite late last night as did Sporting Bet.



I dont know the size of the bookies, but as a generel rule paddypowers compiler is horribly bad and makes huge mistakes over and over, so they can not at all be used as a measure of the bookies favourites. I dont know why they have not found a better compiler yet at paddypower but they have been horrible for years. But one thing is for sure, if I could bet there I would not share their gifts causing them even more loses, so that they will change the compiler sooner.

Bet365 and to a lesser extend Sportingbet is the bookies that will normaly define the market (they are also the odds that plenty of other bookies will copy later), along with betfair when they have odds, and both of these obviously started out with Kittel as huge favourite for stage 1 and Sagan as a even bigger favourite for stage 2, as this was pretty obvious for both stages, and trust me they do not adjust to paddypower prices before they release.
MADRAZO
Junior Member
 
Posts: 293
Joined: 06 Nov 2009 11:27
Location: Denmark

12 Feb 2013 16:55

What are Sagan's chances on Green Mountain?
Peter Sagan:
"I under-evaluated him (Gerald Ciolek) a little bit. I was watching Cancellara, who was trying to break free, and maybe I did too much work," Sagan said. "Ciolek stayed in the wheels and he took my wheel to do the sprint and was able to beat me. I went too early in the sprint."


17/03/13 Milan - San Remo

Peter Sagan:
“We went away in a break on the Oude Kwaremont, but then Cancellara went for it on the Paterberg and I wasn’t able to follow him,”


31/03/13 Tour of Flanders
User avatar HiCadence
Junior Member
 
Posts: 634
Joined: 23 Jul 2011 18:23

12 Feb 2013 16:56

HiCadence wrote:What are Sagan's chances on Green Mountain?


Very slim.
Lanark
Junior Member
 
Posts: 1,726
Joined: 12 May 2010 16:27

12 Feb 2013 17:09

MADRAZO wrote:I dont know the size of the bookies, but as a generel rule paddypowers compiler is horribly bad and makes huge mistakes over and over, so they can not at all be used as a measure of the bookies favourites. I dont know why they have not found a better compiler yet at paddypower but they have been horrible for years. But one thing is for sure, if I could bet there I would not share their gifts causing them even more loses, so that they will change the compiler sooner.

Bet365 and to a lesser extend Sportingbet is the bookies that will normaly define the market (they are also the odds that plenty of other bookies will copy later), along with betfair when they have odds, and both of these obviously started out with Kittel as huge favourite for stage 1 and Sagan as a even bigger favourite for stage 2, as this was pretty obvious for both stages, and trust me they do not adjust to paddypower prices before they release.


How can I trust you :-)

Look this was all a timing issue. Paddy Power & its brother and its sister priced up very early. They got taken to the cleaners. I wholeheardedly agree that they are not the best when looking at prices as to who the favourite is but no one is debating who the REAL favourite should have been. So everything that is argued here after that point is irrelevant. The earlier poster simply stated that Sagan was the favourite in BET365. There is no doubt he was. But BET365 didn't put their market online for about 4 hours after Paddy Power had offered theirs. Regardless of whether they had their own pricing or not, BET365 must have laughed a little and saw the price of Sagan plummet between 6.15 and 7 o clock GMT last night. Paddy power then pulled the plug. BET365 and others then come rolling into the night sky with their market which, shock horror disbelief!, has Sagan as favourite :-) Totally unconnected to all the betting that had gone on in the Paddy Power markets, i'm sure....

anyway, this is a cycling forum, not a bookies forum. we were all lucky to get 10/1 about today's win with the Irish bookmaker. It should be dropped.

Who for tomorrow? I'd imagine Sagan will wheelie his way to the finish but Green Edge could have a few spoilers for the minor placings.

Could Contador attack a la Velits 2012 and repel the chasers this time ? Nibali and co lost seconds to Sagan here last year. Could be a chance for one of the climbers to take a chance.
wheelie1977
Junior Member
 
Posts: 92
Joined: 02 Jan 2013 11:44
Location: Ireland

12 Feb 2013 17:24

HiCadence wrote:What are Sagan's chances on Green Mountain?

Zero, he went into that climb with the leader's jersey last year as well and was dropped after 500 meters.
maltiv
Senior Member
 
Posts: 5,235
Joined: 23 Oct 2009 20:25

12 Feb 2013 17:31

El Pistolero wrote:Milan-San Remo is a lottery race, he doesn't want to build his season around it because of that.


He should try and win it soon. No point trying to win the same monument over and over again, once you've won it.
User avatar the asian
Senior Member
 
Posts: 3,392
Joined: 20 Jan 2011 18:09
Location: Colombo

12 Feb 2013 17:31

Lanark wrote:Very slim.


Ebh and visconti did well before, though field was crapper then, and i don't think sagan would bother.

Funnily though kirby said about sagan today "gts will soon start falling his way". And until then i thought he was looking more.knowledgeable than usual.
The Hitch: Winner 2013 Vuelta cq game. Winner, Velorooms prediction game 2012, 2013. 2nd all time cq rankings.
The Father of Clean Cycling, Christophe Bassons wrote:When I look at cycling today, I get the impression that history is repeating itself: riders who are supposed to be rouleurs are climbing passes at the front of the race, and those who are supposed to be climbers are riding time trials at more than 50 kilometres per hour.

The story is beginning again, just as it did 14 years ago


journalist with integrity.
User avatar The Hitch
Senior Member
 
Posts: 25,712
Joined: 14 Jun 2010 10:58
Location: London.

12 Feb 2013 17:36

maltiv wrote:Zero, he went into that climb with the leader's jersey last year as well and was dropped after 500 meters.

He'll probably go into that stage with a 30 or 40 second advantage to the GC guys. That might motivate him to go a bit deeper. Theoretically he should be able to do as well as Visconti or EBH, as Hitch also points out.
theyoungest
Senior Member
 
Posts: 12,239
Joined: 11 Jan 2010 14:47

12 Feb 2013 17:37

theyoungest wrote:He'll probably go into that stage with a 30 or 40 second advantage to the GC guys. That might motivate him to go a bit deeper. Theoretically he should be able to do as well as Visconti or EBH, as Hitch also points out.


30 to 40 seconds isn't that a bit optimistic:eek:
"The second place is not good."
The great Alberto Contador :p
User avatar LaFlorecita
Senior Member
 
Posts: 18,839
Joined: 15 May 2011 09:53
Location: Utrecht, The Netherlands

12 Feb 2013 17:40

del1962 wrote:How can contador have been caught on the descent when at least 3 other riders were over the final climb before him though.


Well Saxo site says otherwise but ok you might think that's subjective.

But then Nibali, a guy who was there at the climb, said Contador was the strongest on the climb.

So yeah :cool:
User avatar Miburo
Senior Member
 
Posts: 5,351
Joined: 29 Jul 2012 19:33

12 Feb 2013 17:46

LaFlorecita wrote:30 to 40 seconds isn't that a bit optimistic:eek:

He already has 21 seconds to Contador. He'll win tomorrow's stage as well, maybe once again with a small gap.
theyoungest
Senior Member
 
Posts: 12,239
Joined: 11 Jan 2010 14:47

12 Feb 2013 17:50

theyoungest wrote:He'll probably go into that stage with a 30 or 40 second advantage to the GC guys. That might motivate him to go a bit deeper. Theoretically he should be able to do as well as Visconti or EBH, as Hitch also points out.

Not really. EBH and Visconti's results on Green Mountain were mainly caused by the split in the crosswinds. That's unlikely to happen again. Also, EBH is a lot more of a diesel than Sagan is. Sagan is of course far superior on short hills, but on long climbs EBH is probably better (although it's hard to judge since Sagan often seems to give up rather than try).

But yeah, there's no evidence than Sagan is better than last year, when he was dropped easily. And the field is much stronger this year. So there's no hope.
maltiv
Senior Member
 
Posts: 5,235
Joined: 23 Oct 2009 20:25

12 Feb 2013 17:54

maltiv wrote:Not really. EBH and Visconti's results on Green Mountain were mainly caused by the split in the crosswinds. That's unlikely to happen again. Also, EBH is a lot more of a diesel than Sagan is. Sagan is of course far superior on short hills, but on long climbs EBH is probably better (although it's hard to judge since Sagan often seems to give up rather than try).

But yeah, there's no evidence than Sagan is better than last year, when he was dropped easily. And the field is much stronger this year. So there's no hope.

Last year Tony Gallopin finished within 40 secs from Nibali. Okay, Nibali is no Contador, but who knows what a motivated Sagan might be able to do.

But he'll probably once again start softpedaling in the first k of climbing ;)
theyoungest
Senior Member
 
Posts: 12,239
Joined: 11 Jan 2010 14:47

12 Feb 2013 17:54

He won't even try and save his legs for the next stage.

Stage victory > 15-th place in GC.
Lance Armstrong
Junior Member
 
Posts: 375
Joined: 10 Mar 2009 14:25

12 Feb 2013 17:56

First Gallopin, Nibali and Elmiger where in front and Sagan apparantly flew passed them.

Tony Gallopin: “All day the guys worked for me and I want to say thanks to the team. In the final they brought me to a really good position on the last climb at 5k to the finish. There were so many attacks then – it was like a war in the peloton. I think 10 riders went, including me and Fabian. After the descent I tried to go alone but Nibali and Elmiger came with me and soon Sagan came to us also. He didn’t even stay in the wheel – he just blew by us.”

Dirk Demol: “So close. It was a hard final. We knew it would be and we went to see it yesterday so we’d know. Tony and Fabian both had it in their minds to try something. Tony put in a strong attack at 2k but was caught by Vincenzo Nibali and Elmiger and then Sagan bridged up also with maybe 500m to go. He was in a good position with 150m to go but then Sagan passed him with unbelievable speed.
User avatar Ruudz0r
Junior Member
 
Posts: 1,910
Joined: 09 Jun 2011 17:31
Location: The Netherlands

12 Feb 2013 17:59

wheelie1977 wrote:not meaning too, i was just given a lot of nonsense earlier this morning from a senior poster or two. just pointing out my rebuttal was accurate :-)

it won't happen again.


Congrats! Being new doesn't make you any less informed than some that have been here for years. Welcome to the forum.:)
"It's a little bit scarey when Contador attacks." Tommie Voeckler
User avatar Angliru
Senior Member
 
Posts: 5,734
Joined: 10 Mar 2009 13:30

12 Feb 2013 18:00

That Demol quote suggests Sagan gained 9 seconds in 500 metres on the front group?
BlenJones2
Junior Member
 
Posts: 213
Joined: 26 Oct 2012 10:40

12 Feb 2013 18:05

BlenJones2 wrote:That Demol quote suggests Sagan gained 9 seconds in 500 metres on the front group?


It mainly suggests he wasn't paying much attention if he thinks Sagan came past with 150m to go.
Waterloo Sunrise
Senior Member
 
Posts: 5,583
Joined: 09 Sep 2009 20:21

12 Feb 2013 18:25

jens_attacks wrote:lol sagan went solo


according to el calimero he is a boring wheelsucker :confused:
User avatar Ryo Hazuki
Senior Member
 
Posts: 15,068
Joined: 31 Mar 2010 13:50

PreviousNext

Return to Professional road racing

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: richo36, The Barb, Velolover2 and 7 guests

Back to top