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Re: Re:

18 Jul 2016 11:18

Starstruck wrote:
python wrote:i remain very curious, though admittedly its an academic if not an irrelevant concern NOW, what and how would change had the plotters prevail ? what were their ultimate goals ?

to assume they would reverse any and all erdogan policies seems too simplistic.

some commentators point at the previous military coups for clues as trying to keep the political islam in check. i'd buy that. others point at the multiple erdogan international failures for the clues. i'd buy that too. yet others suggest the putsch was merely a self-defense, a preventative reaction of a part of the military that knew they were to be cleansed within days...

perhaps its a misfortune they did not prevail ?

oh, i almost forgot, erdogan is now accusing washington as an accomplice for roofing gulen :rolleyes: demands his extradition, while kerry calmly suggested to file the appropriate papers which erdogan curiously never did...


@14:40
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zeNO3sc6-RQ
a thought provoking compilation of opinions ! i find it hard to believe but not entirely exclusionary, that the plotters would inform washington in advance, though, as one of the panelists noted, that's been the practice for various plotters...of course, an indirect evidence for such a theory would seem to find a support in the hard-nosed position the state dept took re, gulen, both his legal shelter and extradition.

it's as if the us long-term policy towards erdogan (not to be confused with turkey per se) was to keep him on the short leash. compared to a longer leash afforded other 'more responsible' nato allies.
SeriousSam wrote:
python wrote:perhaps its a misfortune they did not prevail ?


The Turkish people and the opposition parties seem to prefer their democracy, with all its problems, to military dictatorship, though a secular military dictatorship more subservient to Nato interests than Erdogan could indeed have been a useful tool for the west in the short term
agree with the bolded entirely...yet, the unbolded part - the alleged support for democracy - needs some corrections. 1st, the erdogan pre-coup authoritarian system could be hardly called a democracy, though, as i said before, it's considerably more competitive than, for instance, the putin authoritarian model. 2nd, while it is true that many turks support erdogan, a huge chunk don't including the kurds and other minorities..what is going on,to a large extent is a survival chanting, or a realignment with the winner
in foreign policy there are no eternal friendships or eternal enemies, only eternal interests
As for Marit, without the medicine, she would have no chance' -OEB
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18 Jul 2016 11:32

I think much of the opposition declared against the coup from the very beginning.
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Re: World Politics

18 Jul 2016 12:02

python,

I can't think of many events more destructive to the democratic status of a country than a military coup succeeding. A necessary (but not sufficient) component of a democracy, and as Popper argued, the most important component, is that empowerment and removal of the top public servants and decision makers is regularly decided at the ballot box and nowhere else.
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Re: World Politics

18 Jul 2016 13:35

Merckx index wrote:Anyone here know much about FAD—an anti-missile system being developed in South Korea, which doesn’t really want it, under pressure from the U.S.? It’s nature makes it pretty much useless vs. North Korea, as it’s designed to shoot down missiles that are far higher than those that would come from the north. It appears to be aimed at China and Russia, both of whom regard it as almost an act of war.

https://kpfa.org/player/?audio=237742

The FAD discussion begins at about 25:30, following a discussion of the decision against China on the Spratly Islands (another example, according to the correspondent, of the U.S. pressuring another country to confront China). And in turn followed by a discussion of how easily the U.S. Presidential election could be swung by the very hackable machines. The reporter claims that the Secretary of Elections in key states like Ohio can basically determine the outcome.


North Korea would never attack South Korea with missiles. They have conventional, hardened artillery that would completely flatten Seoul before they could be eliminated. Estimates are that Seoul could be hit with a half-million shells per hour (!!) using the 170 mm Koksan weapon.

Again, South Korea has no need for the FAD unless it's to defend against countries that would attack (i.e., retaliate) using ballistic missiles. The only country in the region that fits that description? China. This is kind of a big deal.

John Swanson
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Re: World Politics

18 Jul 2016 13:36

SeriousSam wrote:python,

I can't think of many events more destructive to the democratic status of a country than a military coup succeeding. A necessary (but not sufficient) component of a democracy, and as Popper argued, the most important component, is that empowerment and removal of the top public servants and decision makers is regularly decided at the ballot box and nowhere else.

while i generally agree with the ideal or the noble idea, we need to keep in mind how convoluted, complex and at times downright destructive the 'ballot box' decisions can be...

i have many thoughts but little time, still we should keep in mind it was the ballot box that brought the nazis to power. i am still to read it was undemocratic... it was the ballot box that by most accounts through a proper election brought the muslim brotherhood to power in egypt (btw, erdogan openly declared them their ideological brothers). it was the ballot box that most crimeans used to realign their citizenship...etc etc

these diverse example are not to discredit the elections per se, but to show that, like so many other political processes, the election process - even when reflecting the majority - could be quite controversial.

among the reasons for such a mess could be several REAL and NATURAL factors - from a blind nationalism bordering on xenophobia that infects masses, to various spinning and manipulation techniques, to normal human laziness and ignorance...

agree, a military coup is theoretically antipodal to a democracy. but who counted how many military coups where either directly organized or encouraged by the western 'democracies' ? or, conversely, how many military governments, after stabilizing what they saw as a mess, peacefully transferring power to civilians ?

both are historical facts, though, the examples of the civilly minded military are not all that numerous...

there is military and there is military. in some countries, where the civil society had had a chance to develop, the military had seized to to play a primary role. they got replaced by the various political parties representing various strata of their societies - from corporate to liberal etc. yet in other societies, like say egypt or iran, the military (besides the political islam) was is and will remain for a while the only organized and well lead structure capable of producing coherent rulers. simply speaking, there isnt enough anything in between the 2 extremes, like say a numerous middle class capable of engaging in a competitive and rational political process.

imo, the turkish plot showed it the society in transition. on the one hand, it's still rooted in the past, the traditional values etc. but on the other, it's the society that made a tremendous economic and (after ataturk) civil progress.
in foreign policy there are no eternal friendships or eternal enemies, only eternal interests
As for Marit, without the medicine, she would have no chance' -OEB
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18 Jul 2016 21:05

The world is in great hands operated by great minds.
http://gawker.com/all-the-most-excruciating-moments-from-the-trump-pence-1783831489

In Britain too:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3u8k2Dhys-I

The final solution, Yes:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tiwd7qoxAMU

If being an unhinged loon is a prerequisite maybe I should run.
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20 Jul 2016 07:07

movingtarget
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Re:

20 Jul 2016 11:21

while clearly an important subject, turkey will never, imo, become the eu member. they simply don't fit on so many levels. besides, i can see how their sworn historical enemies like greece and cypus will not hesitate to veto the move. unless of course, another coup, lets say for fun by humus traders, will turn turkey upside down to somehow become a moderate state free of political islam.

hugely more important in my view is the growing discord between turkey and the united states. i just read some place that a former high official for colin powel (the afr. american former defense secretary) very clearly associated the cia with the recent coup. i'd be inclined to take such an informed source seriously.

to that extent, it will be very interesting how the turkish demand for extraditing gulen will proceed. i understand, jut yesterday, according to turkish side, they filed the necessary official documents. recall, john kerry challenged them to do so. so they did.

will america hand him over ?

if they were 2 equal allies, yep, that's what would likely happen. but they aren't. i cant see the us bowing out for many reasons. among the few that instantly jump to mind are the us status of the nato leader, the plain pride and, more importantly, such practical factors like gulen was and still is the political lemon that hasn't been squeezed dry yet.

what will the sickly ego of the sultan do then ? he is on record threatening the us. obama is smart enough to pass the ticlish matter to the next prez. while the hillarious would likely succumb, the thump would not.

then the sultan would explode and turkey would be free again :)
in foreign policy there are no eternal friendships or eternal enemies, only eternal interests
As for Marit, without the medicine, she would have no chance' -OEB
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Re: Re:

20 Jul 2016 12:58

python wrote:
while clearly an important subject, turkey will never, imo, become the eu member. they simply don't fit on so many levels. besides, i can see how their sworn historical enemies like greece and cypus will not hesitate to veto the move. unless of course, another coup, lets say for fun by humus traders, will turn turkey upside down to somehow become a moderate state free of political islam.

hugely more important in my view is the growing discord between turkey and the united states. i just read some place that a former high official for colin powel (the afr. american former defense secretary) very clearly associated the cia with the recent coup. i'd be inclined to take such an informed source seriously.

to that extent, it will be very interesting how the turkish demand for extraditing gulen will proceed. i understand, jut yesterday, according to turkish side, they filed the necessary official documents. recall, john kerry challenged them to do so. so they did.

will america hand him over ?

if they were 2 equal allies, yep, that's what would likely happen. but they aren't. i cant see the us bowing out for many reasons. among the few that instantly jump to mind are the us status of the nato leader, the plain pride and, more importantly, such practical factors like gulen was and still is the political lemon that hasn't been squeezed dry yet.

what will the sickly ego of the sultan do then ? he is on record threatening the us. obama is smart enough to pass the ticlish matter to the next prez. while the hillarious would likely succumb, the thump would not.

then the sultan would explode and turkey would be free again :)


From what I know of the USA and deportation and it's not that much, the USA expects total cooperation when trying to get someone back to the USA like for instance Assange but when the request comes from other countries it's a different matter especially with her own citizens. The Knox trial in Italy was interesting. She was tried in Italy and released and then there was a retrial which also went in her favour. But from what I read even if the retrial did not go in her favour it was very unlikely that the USA would have sent her back to Italy to be jailed.

If Gulen is seen as a political refugee even though not a US citizen I doubt he will be sent back to Turkey. I am sure that the US does not want Erdogan to kiss and make up with Putin. I think the US would prefer the strained relations to continue.
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