Log in:  

Register

Giro 2018 stage 14:S.Vito Tagliamento-Monte Zoncolan 186km

A place to discuss all things related to current professional road races. Here, you can also touch on the latest news relating to professional road racing. A doping discussion free forum.

Moderators: Eshnar, Irondan, King Boonen, Red Rick, Pricey_sky

Giro 2018 stage 14:S.Vito Tagliamento-Monte Zoncolan 186km

18 May 2018 15:06

Eshnar wrote:Stage 14: S.Vito al Tagliamento - Monte Zoncolan 186 km

May 19th

Image
Image

Technical Overview:
The penultimate weekend opens with the stage some might consider the queen stage of this year. It is not, mind you, but the Zoncolan always takes the spotlight on the media and in the riders' minds. For this reason, having it at the beginning of the mountain block is by far the best placement for the race as a whole. I'm quite happy with that, despite not liking an MTF on the Zoncolan, on general terms.
Furthermore, the stage itself is quite demanding for a stage 14. Starting from the town of S.Vito, the riders will head north towards the mountains, following upstream the Tagliamento river, with only a few deviations to tackle small but steep climbs. The first is Monte di Ragogna (GPM3, 2.8 km at 10.2%), which will perfectly get the riders in the mood for what's to come, and it will probably determine the composition of the breakaway. After this climb comes the first intermediate sprint, in Forgaria del Friuli, on top of a short uphill drag. With the breakaway already formed, the riders will have a long, relaxing flat stretch, before climbing towards the town of Verzegnis, around 4 km at 5%, which leads to the second categorized climb of the day, Avaglio (GPM3, 4.6 km at 7%). Although the numbers are not impressive here, keep in mind that it features a central ramp of 1.5 km at 13% average (max 15%). After the descent, the riders could just head north to Ovaro and be done with all this. But that would be lame. Instead, they will head east, and make a long counter-clockwise loop to reach Ovaro from the north. The first part of this loop is just a long, gentle false flat on the valley until the second intermediate sprint of the day, in Paularo. There starts the third climb of this stage: Passo Duron (GPM2, 4.4 km at 9.6%) has its toughest ramps (18%) at the very beginning, but even if it gets progressively easier, it always remains very steep. After its descent the peloton will immediately find another climb, Sella Valcalda (GPM3, 7.6 km at 5.6%), at the top of which we, cycling fans, will salute Monte Crostis on the right side (2011 never forget), while the peloton will instead turn left towards Ovaro and the last climb of the day. The famous Monte Zoncolan (GPM1, 10.1 km at 11.9%) is widely considered the hardest climb in professional cycling (or at least, within the GTs), together with Angliru. Its super steep and narrow ramps will in all likelihood decide the winner.

Final km
Image


The Climbs:
Monte di Ragogna (GPM3, 2.8 km at 10.2%)
Short, but very steep, and on narrow roads.
Image

Avaglio (GPM3, 4.6 km at 7%)
The 13% will hurt, but sadly it's way too far from the finish to have any impact.
Image

Passo Duron (GPM2, 4.4 km at 9.6%)
Another super-steep climb. Was featured in the 2010 Giro, that had exactly the same route as this stage from this climb on.
Image

Sella Valcalda (GPM3, 7.6 km at 5.6%)
This one starts and ends with false flats, but its central part is quite hard, with 3.5 km at 8.3%.
Image

Monte Zoncolan (GPM1, 10.1 km at 11.9%)
Since its “discovery” in 2007, the Zonc has soon become one of the most famous climbs in Italy due to its sheer gradient. Its central section of 6 km at 15% average doesn't have many comparable roads in Europe. After that, however, it eases off, the last 2 km being at only 8%, with 2 very narrow tunnels that force all team cars to park in Ovaro and ride motorbikes instead.
Image

What to Expect:
A solo winner? Carnage among the favourites? Well, after what happened in 2014 one can never be sure, but still... That stage was in a terrible placement, while this one is perfect where it is. Riders will be relatively fresh, GC should be open... if not today, when? In any case, don't expect anything before Ovaro. Just hope for some good pace.

Image
Monte Zoncolan
Veni, Vidi, Kirby

I came, I saw, I was dead wrong as per usual
User avatar Red Rick
Administrator
 
Posts: 14,291
Joined: 20 Feb 2012 18:15

Re: Giro 2018 stage 14:S.Vito Tagliamento-Monte Zoncolan 186

18 May 2018 15:18

Image
User avatar fauniera
Member
 
Posts: 1,413
Joined: 12 Oct 2013 15:00

18 May 2018 15:21

Wasting no time to change the conversation away from today stage. : )

I really have no idea what’s going to happen tomorrow. I’ve grown to like Yates in this GT. I’ll be rooting for him, I really hope his amazing form will also translate into the high mountains. If I had to pick someone else my guess is Lopez could be pretty strong. Of course Dumoulin and Pinot and Pozzovivo will do a pretty good job and limit their losses.

1. Yates
2. Lopez
3. Pinot +25
4. Pozzovivo +30
5. Dumoulin +45
6. Bennett
169th Froome
Skyline Drive
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPjM6rZ4pN0
_____________________________________________________________________________
Canton Ave Climb
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C90ZPlbEfmU
User avatar Jspear
Veteran
 
Posts: 6,520
Joined: 23 Feb 2014 03:50
Location: N. VA, USA

Re: Giro 2018 stage 14:S.Vito Tagliamento-Monte Zoncolan 186

18 May 2018 15:29

The one to rule them all.
No idea what to expect. I can imagine absolutely anything including a group of around 10 riders staying together until the final 2 kilometers (God that would suck). The outcome I'm hoping for is that everyone who has looked good so far disappoints while guys like Lopez and Aru are superb and get themselves back into the conversation for the giro win. Bananito ftw.
User avatar Gigs_98
Veteran
 
Posts: 6,269
Joined: 18 Feb 2015 18:36
Location: Austria

18 May 2018 15:29

Finally here it is! Expecting MS to do ride a hard tempo in the last 50km, with Yates to attack in the last km or so. He said today that he doesn't expect big gaps. We'll see.
Riposa in pace, Michele!
User avatar Laplaz
Member
 
Posts: 1,338
Joined: 06 Apr 2016 08:06

18 May 2018 15:33

I don't expect anything to happen before the Zoncolan, but this is a tough stage overall.
Climbers' endurance will be tested for the first time in this Giro. Plus this has been a cold and wet week. With riders already on their limit (minimal body fat %, fatigue, etc) someone might be already sick and tomorrow will show.
User avatar SafeBet
Veteran
 
Posts: 7,025
Joined: 02 Sep 2011 13:38
Location: Milano, Italy

18 May 2018 15:44

Yates needs at least a minute on Dumo. He will be in good shape for the win if he gains this time.
User avatar Escarabajo
Veteran
 
Posts: 9,173
Joined: 16 Apr 2009 18:38
Location: USA - Central Time

18 May 2018 15:45

This could go a 100 ways. But worst scenarios would be:

-Yates too good for everyone, take significant time on Dumoulin and a little on others, tension almost completely gone than
-Dumoulin too close/good to Yates and others. Worst would be if he gains time, then the TT advantage will become insurmountable, tension gone

Best scenarios
-Dumoulin within range of Yates, but in such way that the advantage after the TT will be playable for Yates AND all others as well (pinot, pozzovivo), so possible Pozzo/Pinot even better than Yates so they become close in the GC
-Lopez gaining significant time while others stay equal. This would mean awesome final 3 stages
-Froome to come within range of the TT, without becoming unbeatable after TT.

...
User avatar Dekker_Tifosi
Veteran
 
Posts: 23,724
Joined: 13 Mar 2009 23:52
Location: Roermond, the Netherlands

Re:

18 May 2018 15:47

Escarabajo wrote:Yates needs at least a minute on Dumo. He will be in good shape for the win if he gains this time.

It's almost impossible for Dumoulin not to lose time on a double digit gradient for 10km against somebody 15kg lighter.
A minute would be too much already I think. Then after the TT he might only have 15/30sec, which puts him in the same position as the Vuelta vs Aru. Not possible.
He needs to have a buffer of around 1 minute after the TT. So he has to keep the damage on the Zonc to <30s. It will be very hard.
User avatar Dekker_Tifosi
Veteran
 
Posts: 23,724
Joined: 13 Mar 2009 23:52
Location: Roermond, the Netherlands

18 May 2018 15:49

Any team/rider would be dumb to try something more creative than surviving.

That said, I do like watching a good sufferfest.
More Strides than Rides
Senior Member
 
Posts: 2,159
Joined: 15 Mar 2011 23:52

18 May 2018 15:49

Yates will win this bike race.
Pozzo +30, Pinot +45, Dumoulin +2 min.
User avatar Bot. Sky_Bot
Member
 
Posts: 882
Joined: 20 Aug 2017 12:52

18 May 2018 15:52

Although now I read something Kelderman said which completely baffles me. He says Tom likes super steep climbs like the Zoncolan and actually hates long gradual climbs with non-steep percentages

https://www.ad.nl/giro/dat-steile-van-de-zoncolan-dat-vindt-tom-echt-mooi~ac54defa/
User avatar Dekker_Tifosi
Veteran
 
Posts: 23,724
Joined: 13 Mar 2009 23:52
Location: Roermond, the Netherlands

18 May 2018 16:03

Hopefully we separate the wheat from the chaff and are left with enough possibles to make the rest of the race edge of the seat viewing. Yates Looks Strong but can he be taken down? Does Big Tom have the right stuff to make it back to back wins? Can Tibo become a Winner? Is the Dawg finished as a GT winner? Tomorrow we begin to find out all the answers :).
Alberto Contador=Legend!

Nibali becomes only the 6th winner of all 3 GTS (2014)!
Nibali joins Gimondi, Merckx and Hinault as only the 4th man to win all 3 GTS and 2 different Monuments (2018). A throwback rider in this age of specialization. Bravo!
User avatar Carols
Veteran
 
Posts: 7,089
Joined: 20 Mar 2010 15:20
Location: PA, USA

18 May 2018 16:07

You need to be patient on Zoncolan and ride at a steady tempo until 2km to go - Feel good and you can still pull out 1+ minutes - Think Pinot will do best of the GC contenders.
yaco
Senior Member
 
Posts: 4,319
Joined: 20 Jun 2015 17:57

Re:

18 May 2018 16:14

Bot. Sky_Bot wrote:Yates will win this bike race.
Pozzo +30, Pinot +45, Dumoulin +2 min.

can't see Dumoulin losing so much
EroicaStradeBianche
Junior Member
 
Posts: 198
Joined: 01 Oct 2016 20:20

18 May 2018 16:21

I actually think Zoncolan suits Dumo better than a 8% climb.

It's very hard to attack on such a steep (and long) climb. The pace will be steady until the very end.
WheelofGear
Member
 
Posts: 1,677
Joined: 13 May 2015 06:46

18 May 2018 16:21

Viviani FTW.
Wij steunen hem, tenzij hij niet genoeg fietst.
Anderis
Member
 
Posts: 1,742
Joined: 10 May 2013 20:16

Re:

18 May 2018 16:24

Anderis wrote:Viviani FTW.


Good for him that Mareczko is out, otherwise he would obviously take this.

Or maybe Pozzovivo. Yes, I'll go with him.
User avatar tobydawq
Member
 
Posts: 1,565
Joined: 16 Nov 2013 18:45
Location: Denmark

Re:

18 May 2018 16:27

yaco wrote:You need to be patient on Zoncolan and ride at a steady tempo until 2km to go - Feel good and you can still pull out 1+ minutes - Think Pinot will do best of the GC contenders.

Seriously, if there is one climb where you can't wait for the final 2 km it's the Zoncolan. Yates might be at his best if he does that but please, please, please let the race explode early like it's supposed to be the case on this monster. Otherwise we could as well stop having mountain top finishes altogether.
Dekker_Tifosi wrote:Although now I read something Kelderman said which completely baffles me. He says Tom likes super steep climbs like the Zoncolan and actually hates long gradual climbs with non-steep percentages

<span class="skimlinks-unlinked">https://www.ad.nl/giro/dat-steile-van-de-zoncolan-dat-vindt-tom-echt-mooi~ac54defa</span>/

I'm actually not that surprised. I'd say many of Dumoulin's most impressive climbing performances came on steep climbs. Cumbre del Sol is a very steep climb, Blockhaus where he was great is pretty steep, while the climb where he lost the vuelta 2015 was rather gradual. I don't know how much exactly Dumoulin weighs, so that might be a problem, but generally the way how the Zoncolan usually gets climbed (if it's selectively climbed) suits Dumoulin. Just look at how Basso won there in 2010. Just by setting a high pace which sooner or later destroyed everyone. That's pretty much what Dumoulin did in Oropa.
As I've already written above, no idea what's gonna happen, so I can imagine Dumoulin losing quite a lot of time, but I also wouldn't be massively surprised if he ends up being one of the very best.
User avatar Gigs_98
Veteran
 
Posts: 6,269
Joined: 18 Feb 2015 18:36
Location: Austria

Re: Giro 2018 stage 14:S.Vito Tagliamento-Monte Zoncolan 186

18 May 2018 16:27

I don't know what to expect. i just re-watched the '10 Zonc on YouTube, Basso opening a big Gap on Cuggles between 2.2 and 1.6 km to go, going from a 30" advantage to a minute. The climbers need to stretch Dumo before that to hope for significant gains. I think it will be a great stage, I hope that yaco is right. For sure, it won't mark the end of Il Giro, but it's the first true test as fatigue is starting to accumulate.
SOLO LA VITTORIA È BELLA
User avatar Tonton
Senior Member
 
Posts: 3,982
Joined: 17 May 2013 18:59

Next

Return to Professional road racing

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Alexandre B., Climbing, Eli, Laplaz, roundabout, Singer01 and 31 guests

Back to top