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Giro 2018 stage 14:S.Vito Tagliamento-Monte Zoncolan 186km

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Re:

18 May 2018 16:30

Dekker_Tifosi wrote:Although now I read something Kelderman said which completely baffles me. He says Tom likes super steep climbs like the Zoncolan and actually hates long gradual climbs with non-steep percentages

https://www.ad.nl/giro/dat-steile-van-de-zoncolan-dat-vindt-tom-echt-mooi~ac54defa/


Liking something does not equal being good at it.
He might do well because he is able to do pretty steep stuff without getting out of his seat. A part of the extra energy he has to use because of his bigger weight could be offset by this advantage he has over riders who need to dance on the pedals to keep their pace up.
LPP68!
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18 May 2018 16:30

I think people are overrating Pozzovivo on such climbs. He has the weight advantage but I actually expect him to suffer on this particular mountain.

It's gonna be too steady. He tend to be better at cat and mouse racing with a lot of tempo shifts, attacks and arrhythmic accelerations.
WheelofGear
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Re:

18 May 2018 16:30

Dekker_Tifosi wrote:Although now I read something Kelderman said which completely baffles me. He says Tom likes super steep climbs like the Zoncolan and actually hates long gradual climbs with non-steep percentages

https://www.ad.nl/giro/dat-steile-van-de-zoncolan-dat-vindt-tom-echt-mooi~ac54defa/


That really surprised me as well, although 'liking' is different from performing well against guys that may be advantaged weight-wise. I find it really hard to speculate whether Dumoulin does well or will lose time, but I doubt he'll crack completely.
Stella0596
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18 May 2018 16:33

I think the Giro will be decided tomorrow

Mostly because I think the range of possibilities where there's no huge clear favorite after tomorrow is super small.


I think what Kelderman says makes sense to some extent. On the Zoncolan you're going balls deep for the entirety of the climb because it's so steep. It's all out for 40 minute straight, not starting a little below and then maybe going over that in the last 10 minutes.
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Red Rick
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Re:

18 May 2018 16:36

WheelofGear wrote:I think people are overrating Pozzovivo on such climbs. He has the weight advantage but I actually expect him to suffer on this particular mountain.

It's gonna be too steady. He tend to be better at cat and mouse racing with a lot of tempo shifts, attacks and arrhythmic accelerations.

And Dumo is the polar opposite of Pozzo. He doesn't like it when it is too chaotic.

That's why I think it suits Dumo more although you would have throught I was the other way around on Zonco.
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18 May 2018 16:41

Looking back at the Vuelta he lost backs it up. Dumoulin limited the damage pretty well on the steep stuff. Then got slaughtered at a non-steep climb near the end of the Vuelta.
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18 May 2018 16:47

But Yates is the big, big favorite. He reminds me a be of 2012-Purito but with a better team. He is the best climber AND the most explosive. He is gonna be nearly impossible to drop.

They have to ambush him somehow. But it's unlikely to happen on Zoncolan.
WheelofGear
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18 May 2018 16:48

I'm with the Dumoulin optimists here. As I've said earlier, weight doesn't matter that much on the Zonc.

Just look at this:

1. BASSO Ivan 6h21'58" 70 kg
2. EVANS Cadel 01'19" 64 kg
3. SCARPONI Michele 01'30" 63 kg
4. CUNEGO Damiano 01'58" 58 kg
5. VINOKOUROV Alexandre 02'26" 69 kg
6. SASTRE CANDIL Carlos 02'44" 60 kg
7. NIBALI Vincenzo 03'07" 65 kg
8. PINOTTI Marco 03'20" 67 kg
9. MARTIN Daniel 03'31" 59 kg
10. GADRET John 03'46" 58 kg

Being able to grind it out has got a lot to do with it. Just look at Basso, Evans and Pinotti. And Dumoulin is the best at it from the current bunch. I wouldn't be completely shocked if he wins it.

But I can see Lopez destroying this climb. Aru could be solid, too. And Ciccone might win from a breakaway. I don't believe this is a climb for Yates. If he does well here, he truly has stepped up.

As for Dumoulin, I think he'll handle the Zonc just fine. If there's a place he could really crack, it's stage 20.
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18 May 2018 16:49

Betancur for the win and put two minutes on everyone. The forum to explode next!

Or

Dumo for the win. Equally the forum will explode.
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Re:

18 May 2018 16:49

Dekker_Tifosi wrote:Looking back at the Vuelta he lost backs it up. Dumoulin limited the damage pretty well on the steep stuff. Then got slaughtered at a non-steep climb near the end of the Vuelta.

Limited damage on steep stuff cause everyone waited for the final km. Then got wrecked when they attacked at 50km to go. He was consistently in the bottom end of the top 10 of GC climbing wise on the big mountain stages.
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Re:

18 May 2018 16:50

Dekker_Tifosi wrote:Looking back at the Vuelta he lost backs it up. Dumoulin limited the damage pretty well on the steep stuff. Then got slaughtered at a non-steep climb near the end of the Vuelta.

A 6-7% climb is properly the worst for Dumo.

He is great in rolling hills with shallow gradients AND super-steep hills but those in-between gradients is like kryptonite for him.
WheelofGear
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Re:

18 May 2018 16:50

Red Rick wrote:I think the Giro will be decided tomorrow

Mostly because I think the range of possibilities where there's no huge clear favorite after tomorrow is super small.


I think what Kelderman says makes sense to some extent. On the Zoncolan you're going balls deep for the entirety of the climb because it's so steep. It's all out for 40 minute straight, not starting a little below and then maybe going over that in the last 10 minutes.


I think Pozzovivo's primary problem in this race has been that the MTFs haven't been tough enough. On Etna he looked like the strongest and made a lot of attacks but couldn't get away. That day, Yates was cruising and after having shadowed everybody he distanced them easily.

On Montevergine di Mercogliano Pozzovivo again looked very strong (and he has been positioning himself excellently throughout the race) but the finale was simply too explosive for him despite his newfound sprinting abilities.

On Gran Sasso, he was again positioned extremely well and seemed to be biding his time. He was actually riding very defensively and smartly until 700 metres from the finish where he took the bull by the horns and tried to ride the others out of his wheel. But it was too short, and there was too much headwind so he was blown past in the finish.

But he has also been riding very well in Altagirone, Santa Ninfa and Osimo which I think was quite impressive for a normally regular mountain guy like himself. This backs up your point (that he thrives in the chaotic finishes), but I don't think history backs it up that this should be his primary forté. So I am very much looking forward to seeing him on a real climb after a tough stage tomorrow.

Of course there is a risk that he may have peaked a bit too soon and he may be about to decline but I am giving him the benefit of the doubt and backing him for tomorrow.
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Re: Re:

18 May 2018 16:50

Red Rick wrote:
Dekker_Tifosi wrote:Looking back at the Vuelta he lost backs it up. Dumoulin limited the damage pretty well on the steep stuff. Then got slaughtered at a non-steep climb near the end of the Vuelta.

Limited damage on steep stuff cause everyone waited for the final km. Then got wrecked when they attacked at 50km to go. He was consistently in the bottom end of the top 10 of GC climbing wise on the big mountain stages.

He was still bottom of top 10 of the GC men in the stage he got slaughtered. Always between 8-12 from GC men back then. It wasn't like he got worse (worse, relative to other GC men that is)
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Re:

18 May 2018 16:51

Squire wrote:I'm with the Dumoulin optimists here. As I've said earlier, weight doesn't matter that much on the Zonc.

Just look at this:

1. BASSO Ivan 6h21'58" 70 kg
2. EVANS Cadel 01'19" 64 kg
3. SCARPONI Michele 01'30" 63 kg
4. CUNEGO Damiano 01'58" 58 kg
5. VINOKOUROV Alexandre 02'26" 69 kg
6. SASTRE CANDIL Carlos 02'44" 60 kg
7. NIBALI Vincenzo 03'07" 65 kg
8. PINOTTI Marco 03'20" 67 kg
9. MARTIN Daniel 03'31" 59 kg
10. GADRET John 03'46" 58 kg

Being able to grind it out has got a lot to do with it. Just look at Basso, Evans and Pinotti. And Dumoulin is the best at it from the current bunch. I wouldn't be completely shocked if he wins it.

But I can see Lopez destroying this climb. Aru could be solid, too. And Ciccone might win from a breakaway. I don't believe this is a climb for Yates. If he does well here, he truly has stepped up.

As for Dumoulin, I think he'll handle the Zonc just fine. If there's a place he could really crack, it's stage 20.

They are still light you know!
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Re:

18 May 2018 16:51

Squire wrote:But I can see Lopez destroying this climb. Aru could be solid, too. And Ciccone might win from a breakaway. I don't believe this is a climb for Yates. If he does well here, he truly has stepped up.

Oh, and I forgot to mention: Carapaz should be absolutely monstrous on this climb!
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Re:

18 May 2018 16:52

Dekker_Tifosi wrote:Looking back at the Vuelta he lost backs it up. Dumoulin limited the damage pretty well on the steep stuff. Then got slaughtered at a non-steep climb near the end of the Vuelta.


But back then, he didn't have any team support and I was already impressed he *almost* won it, without actually preparing as a gc contender.
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Re: Re:

18 May 2018 16:52

Escarabajo wrote:
Squire wrote:I'm with the Dumoulin optimists here. As I've said earlier, weight doesn't matter that much on the Zonc.

Just look at this:

1. BASSO Ivan 6h21'58" 70 kg
2. EVANS Cadel 01'19" 64 kg
3. SCARPONI Michele 01'30" 63 kg
4. CUNEGO Damiano 01'58" 58 kg
5. VINOKOUROV Alexandre 02'26" 69 kg
6. SASTRE CANDIL Carlos 02'44" 60 kg
7. NIBALI Vincenzo 03'07" 65 kg
8. PINOTTI Marco 03'20" 67 kg
9. MARTIN Daniel 03'31" 59 kg
10. GADRET John 03'46" 58 kg

Being able to grind it out has got a lot to do with it. Just look at Basso, Evans and Pinotti. And Dumoulin is the best at it from the current bunch. I wouldn't be completely shocked if he wins it.

But I can see Lopez destroying this climb. Aru could be solid, too. And Ciccone might win from a breakaway. I don't believe this is a climb for Yates. If he does well here, he truly has stepped up.

As for Dumoulin, I think he'll handle the Zonc just fine. If there's a place he could really crack, it's stage 20.

They are still light you know!

And as far as I know, Dumoulin is 71kg. 1kg heavier than Basso.
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18 May 2018 16:53

Carapaz
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Re: Giro 2018 stage 14:S.Vito Tagliamento-Monte Zoncolan 186

18 May 2018 16:53

Pozzovivo once won a Trentino stage on Punta Veleno, a climb a lot like Zoncolan. To be fair, it wasn't against the best of competitions, but it was still a decent field and it was in a very impressive manner. I also don't think the climb suits him perfectly but I don't think it's bad for him either.
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18 May 2018 16:55

@Squire: Dumoulin currently is 69kg.

edit: Carapaz is a good call. I don't fancy Pozzo's chances much. Yates is the obvious favorite.
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