Log in:  

Register

The Cycling Betting Thread

Come in and talk about betting, computer games and cycling simulations, and your office's or online fantasy cycling leagues.

Re: Re:

23 Apr 2015 11:27

Hugo Koblet wrote:
CiclistaSportivo wrote:For Fleche-Wallone I don't bet, too unpredictable imho :)


Too unpredictable? The last 5 years, the favorite has won 4 times :D



You know, the trend is going to change just when you are relaxed and confident about it lol :D
CiclistaSportivo
Junior Member
 
Posts: 11
Joined: 18 Apr 2015 19:44

23 Apr 2015 11:58

Things just have their surprises. I mean, they usually come when we least expect it. Image
clippittee
Junior Member
 
Posts: 6
Joined: 23 Apr 2015 11:50

Re: Re:

23 Apr 2015 12:53

Hugo Koblet wrote:
CiclistaSportivo wrote:For Fleche-Wallone I don't bet, too unpredictable imho :)


Too unpredictable? The last 5 years, the favorite has won 4 times :D


Moreno was the bookie's favorite last year, a bit shorter than Gilbert. Valverde was available at ~8-1
User avatar search
Junior Member
 
Posts: 1,742
Joined: 29 Aug 2009 10:43

06 May 2015 17:21

So where does everyone think the value is with the Giro GC. I don't think Contador is a good bet at anything below even odds. Maybe Richie at 3.75? I think giving him 30% to win isn't unreasonable.
User avatar SeriousSam
Senior Member
 
Posts: 2,020
Joined: 31 Aug 2012 00:06
Location: Now here

Re:

06 May 2015 17:39

SeriousSam wrote:So where does everyone think the value is with the Giro GC. I don't think Contador is a good bet at anything below even odds. Maybe Richie at 3.75? I think giving him 30% to win isn't unreasonable.


Contador is the best GC rider here, but evens is never tempting. Porte has still something to prove over three weeks, so I would probably go for a small bet on Pozzovivo (currently 40/1 at Betfair) on an exchange market in hope that he will be near the front in the first week and a half.
User avatar vladimir
Junior Member
 
Posts: 289
Joined: 20 Aug 2011 14:04
Location: Norway

06 May 2015 17:52

Contador has more than 50% chance to win, so even is fine. Porte has like 10% chance at best.
Cancellara is like The Black Album. Really good but way overrated.
User avatar Netserk
Senior Member
 
Posts: 15,738
Joined: 30 Apr 2011 13:10
Location: Denmark

Re:

06 May 2015 18:46

Netserk wrote:Contador has more than 50% chance to win, so even is fine. Porte has like 10% chance at best.


I don't think your >50% statement is a good estimate, as I think the odds of failure through injury/illness/other bad luck can make up a fair percentage.

But I'm surprised, 10%! Who are the other lucky guys you think are able to win? I'd put Uran equal to Porte, at the max., not much more. Unless you give Contador 70% chance, that's the only reason I could see for Porte only getting 10%. More like 25%, I'd personally say.
NairoQ
Junior Member
 
Posts: 145
Joined: 05 Jan 2013 11:43

06 May 2015 18:50

If you really think Porte has at best 10% you should hurry and quickly bet against him on betfair exchange. Right now you can lay him; Risk 4x euros, win x euro if he doesn't come first and lose 4x euro if he does come first. If he comes first with at best 10% chance, that's a very good bet, ie it has substantial positive expectation.

As for Contador, 50-55% sound about right.
User avatar SeriousSam
Senior Member
 
Posts: 2,020
Joined: 31 Aug 2012 00:06
Location: Now here

Re: The Cycling Betting Thread

20 May 2015 21:13

I very much recomend you odds for tomorow stage of Giro...looks like bookmakers are drunk or never seen a profile of Berico and Crosara. ;)

Good luck
Alberto Contador fanboy
Vamos Colombia!
Ryo Hazuki in August 2013 wrote:what? quintana is already better climber than froome. see final stages of the tour and he's only 23. quintana is the best climber I've sene since pantani. he will become a legend
User avatar ILovecycling
Senior Member
 
Posts: 7,063
Joined: 04 Aug 2010 12:00
Location: Prague

23 May 2015 20:29

Alright, what is the best site to go to if I want to try cycling sports betting and that doesn't ban winning punters? Don't want to have to worry about stuff like that
Red Rick
Senior Member
 
Posts: 3,744
Joined: 20 Feb 2012 18:15
Location: The Netherlands

Re:

23 May 2015 21:49

Red Rick wrote:Alright, what is the best site to go to if I want to try cycling sports betting and that doesn't ban winning punters? Don't want to have to worry about stuff like that

Best way to bet is to have at least 4 sites and then bet with better odds.betfair,paddypower,williamhill,bet365,betfred etc :D

Made a mistake with Rigo today, :mad: but still great balance in past weeks.
Alberto Contador fanboy
Vamos Colombia!
Ryo Hazuki in August 2013 wrote:what? quintana is already better climber than froome. see final stages of the tour and he's only 23. quintana is the best climber I've sene since pantani. he will become a legend
User avatar ILovecycling
Senior Member
 
Posts: 7,063
Joined: 04 Aug 2010 12:00
Location: Prague

24 May 2015 02:34

Uran is $10 in the betting without Contador market. Definitely on that. I can see him grinding Aru down this week to take 2nd to Contador.
Sasquatch
Senior Member
 
Posts: 2,462
Joined: 16 Sep 2009 09:59

Re:

24 May 2015 07:08

Sasquatch wrote:Uran is $10 in the betting without Contador market. Definitely on that. I can see him grinding Aru down this week to take 2nd to Contador.

ehmm I dont believe he will, but would like to, good luck :)
Alberto Contador fanboy
Vamos Colombia!
Ryo Hazuki in August 2013 wrote:what? quintana is already better climber than froome. see final stages of the tour and he's only 23. quintana is the best climber I've sene since pantani. he will become a legend
User avatar ILovecycling
Senior Member
 
Posts: 7,063
Joined: 04 Aug 2010 12:00
Location: Prague

Previous

Return to Games and Fantasy Cycling

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: FoxxyBrown1111 and 0 guests

Back to top