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The Cycling Betting Thread

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06 Apr 2011 12:47

Moncoutie wrote:Saw the odds at 365, but where the fvck is he 17?! I've done Kloden 19's.


I actually got Freire @ 17 at Bet365, just after the odds were released. Now I'm just hoping that the quality breakaway will be brought back.

In addition the Kolobnev bet, I also backed L.Sanchez over Kolobnev at 2.36, so I'm guaranteed a profit of around 10% regardless of who's first. That covers my Freire bet.
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06 Apr 2011 14:29

Knew the odds would come in during the race... Should have waited.

I can't see Fischer finishing in the main group.

Freire over Fischer @ 1.40

Small risk Oscar will fail badly uphill too.
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06 Apr 2011 15:21

Squire wrote:Pais Vasco, stage 3
Freire @ 17


Annoying 2nd place. Made even more annoying by the fact that I considered backing Vino as well, along with Kolobnev. Ended up taking only Freire though.

Freire loss was made up by the Kolobnev/LLSanchez h2h sure win. Which means my balance is exactly where it started this morning.

Arrate tomorrow, should be interesting.
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06 Apr 2011 15:26

Vino FTW. Always a good chance on a profile like that where he can get away on a few km of flat.

That Freire H2H was free money. Thanks to the forum for talking up Fischer so Bet365 thought he was a chance.

93. [BRA] FISCHER Murilo Antonio GRM 07'05"

Good day soured a bit by Weylandt's fall.
Ferminal
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06 Apr 2011 23:06

Pais Vasco, stage 4

Klöden over Gesink @ 1.71
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07 Apr 2011 02:12

Rodriguez @ 7.5
Rodriguez over Sanchez @ 2.55

I can only guess the odds are like this because of what happened last year on this stage. But all things equal, they are very equal in climbing ability. I would have Rodriguez ahead on the steeper gradients near the top. Purito needs time if he wants a good GC finish, he will attack and be tough to chase down.

Hesjedal over Cunego @ 2.00

Ryder seems fairly strong this week, if anything, Cunego will be the one more likely to drop on the climb. By luck or otherwise, Hesjedal has finished ahead of Cunego (on same time) on first three stages.
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07 Apr 2011 04:29

So very tempted to take Horner at Betfair to win overall. Can't see Samu or Purito putting enough time into Horner and Kloden for the time trial. One of the Shacks win it. Could back both.
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07 Apr 2011 10:37

Sasquatch wrote:So very tempted to take Horner at Betfair to win overall. Can't see Samu or Purito putting enough time into Horner and Kloden for the time trial. One of the Shacks win it. Could back both.


Ye, I got Horner at 18/1 prerace. Was hoping the bookies would put up in running overall prices so could see what price should be looking for on betfair. Backing kloden would cover my bet i think but i think horner is gonna take the overall still. Think he will have very similar level of tt to kloden after he did very well on the same type of tough hilly tt last yr. Also think he will get some seconds today having put in a serious bid on this exact finish last yr. Radioschack would surely prefer an american winner anyway.
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07 Apr 2011 15:57

Squire wrote:Pais Vasco, stage 4

Klöden over Gesink @ 1.71


Did a few livebets as well. Went close with Vino ftw, and was stupid enough to take Frank over Tondo when Leopard pushed at the bottom of the climb.

Vinokourov over Seeldraeyers @ 1.85
Vinokourov @ 45
Sanchez Pimienta @ 11
F.Schleck over Tondo @ 1.50

All in all a small profit, but I'm not very pleased.
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07 Apr 2011 20:46

Was planning to sit out tomorrow's stage, as I'm convinced it will end in a breakaway win. But some of the odds are a bit too attractive despite my breakaway prediction. Not sure you can get the Freire one anymore. It quickly shortened at Paddypower.

Pais Vasco, stage 5
Freire @ 5
Ligthart over Gavazzi @ 3.13
Ponzi over Ratto @ 2
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08 Apr 2011 00:05

Paris-Roubaix:
Stijn Devolder - Sebastian Langeveld, 2 - 1,61 at Bet365.
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08 Apr 2011 10:52

Damiano wrote:Paris-Roubaix:
Stijn Devolder - Sebastian Langeveld, 2 - 1,61 at Bet365.


Unibet has that one much higher.
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08 Apr 2011 21:17

Squire wrote:Pais Vasco, stage 5
Freire @ 5
Ligthart over Gavazzi @ 3.13
Ponzi over Ratto @ 2


All three lost after the DQ. Why did he have to push? A Freire win would have covered my two h2hs. Bad day.

Pais Vasco, stage 6 TT
Intxausti over Hesjedal @ 2
Porte over Leipheimer @ 1.66
Tondo over Gesink @ 2
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08 Apr 2011 21:24

Pozzato 1.704 over Eisel @Pina

Yes Eisel finished 14th in RVV but that was a sprint of a pretty big group. Didnt see him being impressive during the race.
Eisel did great in 2006 but since then he didnt come closer then 5 minutes behind the winner.

2010: 38th - 9'33
2009: 47th - 6'43
2008: 17th - 5'20
2007: 65th - 12'21
2006: 5th - 3'24

Pozzato can fight for a top 5. If Eisel can repeat 2006 that would be a little miracle imo.

2010: 7th - 3'46
2009: 2th - 47'
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08 Apr 2011 22:22

Badeend wrote:Pozzato 1.704 over Eisel


I also got that one yesterday at Bet365.
Been collecting a few P-R bets during the week. Doubt anything interesting will come up tomorrow. Depending on Sportingbet's h2hs. I have these for Sunday:

Pozzato over Eisel @ 1.72
Ballan over Quinziato @ 1.33 (can see no way Ballan could lose this)
Cancellara @ 2.50
Haussler over Sagan @ 1.65

If I wanted, I could back The Field over Cancellara @ 1.62 at Centrebet and be guaranteed a small profit, but I prefer risking that the Canc might lose for a bigger profit.
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09 Apr 2011 06:18

Squire wrote:All three lost after the DQ. Why did he have to push? A Freire win would have covered my two h2hs. Bad day.

Pais Vasco, stage 6 TT
Intxausti over Hesjedal @ 2
Porte over Leipheimer @ 1.66
Tondo over Gesink @ 2


I didn't bet Squire but query your book.

They usually have rules saying that post race disqualifications don't count and will pay out the first over the line. Not sure on the exact terminology or their interpretation of the rule, but query it with them.
Sasquatch
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09 Apr 2011 07:53

Sasquatch wrote:I didn't bet Squire but query your book.

They usually have rules saying that post race disqualifications don't count and will pay out the first over the line. Not sure on the exact terminology or their interpretation of the rule, but query it with them.


no, it's always the Podium result that counts and it was Gavazzi, who was on there
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09 Apr 2011 10:10

search wrote:no, it's always the Podium result that counts and it was Gavazzi, who was on there


Indeed this time it was Gavazzi that was on the podium and therefore he is the correct winner also in betting terms. If Freire had been on it before being dq'ed he would have been.
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09 Apr 2011 14:29

At Nordicbet.com I found this:
Rasch-Arvesen, 2 - 2,40.

Except for the fact that Arvesen often ends up as a DNF I can't find anything that explains this odds.
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09 Apr 2011 16:46

search wrote:no, it's always the Podium result that counts and it was Gavazzi, who was on there


That's correct. Although they did pay out at first, but then resettled the bet. What would have happened if I had withdrawn the money before the resettlement? My account in red?
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