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So, the outsider I've gone 'small bet each way' on at the moment is Konig. He's bringing some decent form to the table in the Dauphine and is well suited to a climby parcours. With the big three watching each other so closely they might not be too worried about someone like Konig getting near...
Oh there are certainly good wins to be had. I bet peanuts each time, a pound or two here and there, mainly for the satisfaction of the wins. Only done it for about a year and don't have an amazing success rate; probably my best results were Majka e/w on Lombardia, Vanmarcke e/w on the Ronde...
OK, I took the 25% from here (p.6) but it looks like this is the 2012 regs, so presumably it's changed?
If it's 30% then I think 1°01'28" puts Bouhanni out.
Bouhanni's time was 1°19'55", yes?
So in seconds this is 3600+19*60+55=4795
And 4795 / 1.25 = 3836 as the time in seconds which would eliminate him
3836/3600 = 1.0655555
0.0655555 * 60 = 3.93333 (mins)
Therefore the winning time would need to be inside 1°03'56" to eliminate Bouhanni...
I used to think we knew where we stood with this team. Top Classics riders; a dominant force over the cobbles. Riders like Terpstra, Chava (at the time) and Boonen who can win short multi-stage races like De Panne. Some awesome time triallists, too, and national champions. And of course...
http://skysports.html.infostradasports.com/asp/lib/event/tour/default.asp?page=live&CompetitionID=20559&SeasonID=486&GenderID=1&EventPhaseID=888145&PhaseID=889572&StyleID=0&Cache=2&Taalcode=2
Seems pretty decent as a ticker - even includes GC for riders who have finished the stage - but...
I'm in a similar boat; before the Giro I took Scarpo, Pozzo and Aru all e/w. There was no massive value in Quintana, J-Rod, Uran and Evans (and especially now we see what happened to Rodriguez). So far so good, despite Scarponi's huffing and puffing at the weekend (good job I split my Astana bet).
Very hedgey but should make a small amount: e/w on Gilbert and Kwia. Decided I needed a random long range little punt and went for Nordhaug e/w - would require something to go wrong with Mollema I suppose but Nordhaug put in a great show last year.
Presume you know about Simon Yates' win in the Tour of Britain last year on Haytor?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ViSOuTK8ws
http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/tour-of-britain-2013/stage-6/results