Recent content by mikks

It’s just a game. I do feel sorry for Matthews though — games are games, but injuries are real. And by the way, my thought process when picking him was very similar to slow_climber.

I do not want to talk about the elephant, as it is not allowed in this part of the forum, but also, personally, I do not think there is an elephant in the room. Maybe a tiny little pony, but not an elephant. I do think there is a reasonable chance that you overestimate what kind of knowledge or...

Talk about co-leadership is completely insane. If Ayuso thought about it, expected it, or hoped for it, he was delusional. And if we haven’t seen the exact wording in the contract (I am sure there was something in the small print), claims about contractual promises are pointless. Having said...

More or less how I would interpret these results. Useful tool. Interesting. It shows general trends and the broader picture, but the specifics are debatable. In some cases (like Evenepoel index 88.1 and Roglič index 87.7), the difference is so small, basically within the margin of error, that...

I watched the video and depending on the exact location of the last right turn, it is either 1484–1485 or 1475–1476. But I’m not sure about the final turn.

I see I’m not the only one who has read Tetlock. Here is a thread comparing Bernal, Pogačar and Evenepoel, created in 2020. I recently re-read it, and it’s interesting that most posters were right in a broad sense—they all recognized the talent and predicted a strong future—but nobody was...

Agree with others. Lipowitz was the only real disappointment. All the others were more or less as expected.

Actually, I’ve been reading this forum almost from the beginning—I just had to make a new account recently. So I remember a lot. I remember the kinds of predictions people who “trusted their own eyes” made about Ayuso, Uijtdebroeks, Evenepoel, Quintana, and countless other riders. But in...

Seixas is overhyped. The futures of young riders are generally very hard to predict because the uncertainties are so high. I was very confident back in the day that Quintana would become a Tour winner. In 2019–2020, I was also quite confident that Evenepoel would win at least one Tour (though I...

I agree, Evenepoel is a better rider than Onley and would have better chances. But my point is that if you take Pog and Vingegaard out, then the rest of the bunch is quite similar, and race becomes more open. Factors such as luck, who has a bad day and who doesn’t, who loses time in echelons...

I just checked Oddschecker, and it gives Pogačar a 75% probability, Vingegaard a 17% probability, Evenepoel 7%, and Almeida 4.1%(though, only few bookmakers list Almeida), Lipowitz 5% and Onley 3,5% etc. So yes, Evenepoel has better odds than Onley, but in the grand scheme of things, Pogačar...

There are no solutions, only trade-offs. Maybe he loses some muscle mass and the end result is that he finishes one minute closer to Vingegaard, but still comes third. And on the other side of the trade-off, his results in the rest of the season are worse. Is it worth it? If I had to advise...

Evenepoel has proven that he can climb really well on his day. But he has also shown over the years that he is somewhat fragile or vulnerable to even small bumps (heat, gradient, wrong pace, bad legs, or whatever), and it costs him. I still remember the 2021 Lombardy, where he had something...

But it is also counterintuitive. Pinot has won only three Tour de France stages. The first one was from a breakaway and not a mountaintop finish. Another one, although it was a mountaintop finish, also came from a breakaway. Only the third was a mountaintop finish that did not come from a...

How would your model rate Contador vs Rasmussen climbing style in 2007? My memory is a bit hazy, but wasn’t it more of a constant stop-and-go effort — sprinting, pausing,sprinting, pausing and so on and on. I would guess that this kind of pacing wouldn’t produce the fastest climbing times...