in this very situation i liked the waiting because
1. nobody was going to win or loose anything from the waiting
2. it was not clear immediately for the riders whose fault it was [and to some it still is not, as it seems]
Milan shifted line. Coquard was already next to his backwheel, thus shifted even more (probably a bit too much) and bumped into other rider, then bumped back left and into Philipsen. Thats what I saw from the replay.
Even if you say that probability that Roglic is the "best of the rest" is 50% (which is too high imho), you have still to multiply with the probability of 50% that he does not DNF. Which would bring you to 25%.
If you would increase mitochondria and thereby muscular metabolism / energy turnover:
you still would also have to increase oxygen transport to the muscles, isn't it?