He's nineteen, two or three years growing and his body could have bulked out by twenty two and he's become a classics rider too heavy for the mountains.
Check the scheduled times for each race, best to aim to inplace for the first race to pass. Ensure your route does not include any of the race course roads which will be closed early.
I've only watched once so no expert, for whats its worth I went Carrefour hoping to perhaps seen a decisive move, but MVDP was already away and on his own.
The key thing for this year is that all four races are on the same day, so get there early.