104TH LIÈGE-BASTOGNE-LIÈGE 1.UWT April 22nd, 2018

[Rollthedice]

LA DOYENNE
THE 104TH LIÈGE-BASTOGNE-LIÈGE EDITION
2018, April 22nd
Liège > Ans - 258.5 km.


Start : N30 LIÈGE 258.5 10:25
Finish : N682 ANS 0 16:53 estimated at 40 Km/h


MAP:

COTES AND COLS

Cote de Bonnerue KM 72 2.4 Km at 5.8%
Cote de Saint-Roch KM 109 1 Km at 11.2%
Cote de Mont-Le Soie KM 152 4 Km at 6.1%
Cote de Pont KM 168 1 Km at 10.5%
Cote de Bellevaux KM 172 1.1 Km at 6.8%
Cote de la Ferme Libert KM 180 1.2 Km at 12.1%
Col du Rosier KM 198 4.4 Km at 5.9%
Col du Maquisard KM 211 2.5 Km at 5%
Cote de la Redoute KM 222.5 2 Km at 8.9%
Cote de la Roche-Aux-Faucons KM 239 1.3 Km at 11%
Cote de Saint-Nicolas KM 253.5 1.2 Km at 8.6%

PROFILE:

PROVISIONAL STARTLIST:

AG2R LA MONDIALE

BARDET Romain
CHEREL Mickael
COSNEFROY Benoit
DOMONT Axel
GASTAUER Ben
GAUTIER Cyril
VUILLERMOZ Alexis

AQUA BLUE SPORT

CHRISTIAN Mark
DUNBAR Eddie
HANSEN Lasse Norman
KREDER Michel
PEDERSEN Casper Phillip
WARBASSE Larry
WATSON Calvin

ASTANA PRO TEAM

FRAILE MATARRANZ Omar
FUGLSANG Jakob
HOULE Hugo
KANGERT Tanel
MOSER Moreno
VALGREN ANDERSEN Michael
VILLELLA Davide

BAHRAIN - MERIDA

GASPAROTTO Enrico
IZAGUIRRE INSAUSTI Gorka
IZAGUIRRE INSAUSTI Ion
NIBALI Vincenzo
PELLIZOTTI Franco
POZZOVIVO Domenico
VISCONTI Giovanni

BMC RACING TEAM

BETTIOL Alberto
CARUSO Damiano
DE MARCHI Alessandro
FRANKINY Kilian
GERRANS Simon
TEUNS Dylan
VLIEGEN Loïc

BORA-HANSGROHE

BENEDETTI Cesare
FORMOLO Davide
KONRAD Patrick
MAJKA Rafal
MCCARTHY Jay
MUHLBERGER Gregor
PFINGSTEN Christoph

COFIDIS, SOLUTIONS CRÉDITS

EDET Nicolas France
HERRADA LOPEZ Jesús
HERRADA LOPEZ José
MATE MARDONES Luis Angel
NAVARRO GARCIA Daniel
PEREZ Anthony
SIMON Julien

DIRECT ENERGIE

CALMEJANE Lilian
GRELLIER Fabien
HIVERT Jonathan
NAULEAU Bryan
OURSELIN Paul
SICARD Romain
TAARAMAE Rein

GROUPAMA - FDJ

MADOUAS Valentin
MOLARD Rudy
ROUX Anthony
SEIGLE Romain
VAUGRENARD Benoît
VICHOT Arthur
VINCENT Leo

LOTTO - SOUDAL

BENOOT Tiesj
LAMBRECHT Bjorg
MARCZYNSKI Tomasz
MONFORT Maxime
VAN DER SANDE Tosh
VANENDERT Jelle
WELLENS Tim

MITCHELTON - SCOTT

ALBASINI Michael
HAIG Jack
IMPEY Daryl
JUUL JENSEN Christopher
KREUZIGER Roman
NIEVE ITURALDE Mikel
VERONA QUINTANILLA Carlos

MOVISTAR TEAM

AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey
ANACONA Winner
BETANCUR GOMEZ Carlos Alberto
ERVITI Imanol
LANDA MEANA Mikel
ROJAS GIL Jose Joaquin
VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro

QUICK STEP FLOORS

ALAPHILIPPE Julian
CAVAGNA Rémi
GILBERT Philippe
JUNGELS Bob
MAS NICOLAU Enric
SCHACHMANN Maximilian
SERRY Pieter

SPORT VLAANDEREN-BALOISE

ALLEGAERT Piet
DECLERCQ Benjamin
DELTOMBE Kevin
SPRENGERS Thomas
VAN GESTEL Dries
VAN GOMPEL Matthias
VAN HECKE Preben

TEAM DIMENSION DATA

BERHANE TEWELDEMEDHIN Natnael
CUMMINGS Stephen
DAVIES Scott
JANSE VAN RENSBURG Jacques
KING Benjamin
PAUWELS Serge
SLAGTER Tom Jelte

TEAM EF EDUCATION FIRST-DRAPAC p/b CANNONDALE

CRADDOCK Lawson
HOWES Alex
MARTINEZ POVEDA Daniel Felipe
OWEN Logan U
ROLLAND Pierre
URAN URAN Rigoberto
WOODS Michael

TEAM FORTUNEO - SAMSIC

BARGUIL Warren
GESBERT Elie
HARDY Romain
LEDANOIS Kevin
MOINARD Amaël
PICHON Laurent
VACHON Florian

TEAM KATUSHA-ALPECIN

BELKOV Maxim
BOSWELL Ian
HOLLENSTEIN Reto
KISERLOVSKI Robert
KOCHETKOV Pavel
LAMMERTINK Maurits
ZAKARIN Ilnur

TEAM LOTTO NL - JUMBO

DE TIER Floris
GESINK Robert
LINDEMAN Bertjan
MARTENS Paul
TANKINK Bram
VAN EMDEN Jos
VAN POPPEL Danny

TEAM SKY

GEOGHEGAN HART Tao
HENAO MONTOYA Sergio
KIRYIENKA Vasil
KWIATKOWSKI Michal
POELS Wouter
THOMAS Geraint
WISNIOWSKI Lukasz

TEAM SUNWEB

DUMOULIN Tom
FROHLINGER Johannes
GESCHKE Simon
HAGA Chad
HAMILTON Chris
MATTHEWS Michael
OOMEN Sam

TREK-SEGAFREDO

BERNARD Julien
DANIEL Gregory
GOGL Michael
GRMAY Tsgabu Gebremaryam
GUERREIRO Ruben
MOLLEMA Bauke
SKUJINS Toms

UAE - TEAMEMIRATES

BONO Matteo
FARIA DA COSTA Rui Alberto
MARTIN Daniel
MORI Manuele
RIABUSHENKO Aliaksandr
SUTHERLAND Rory
ULISSI Diego

WANTY – GROUPE GOBERT

BAUGNIES Jérôme
DEGAND Thomas
EIKING Odd Christian
MARTIN Guillaume
MEURISSE Xandro
MINNAARD Marco
SMITH Dion

WB-VERANCLASSIC AQUA PROTECT

DERUETTE Thomas
JULES Justin
MORTIER Julien
PEYSKENS Dimitri
ROBEET Ludovic
VANTOMME Maxime
WARNIER Antoine

 

[Akuryo]

Alafpolak vs Valverde again. I wonder who will get 3rd place

 

[WheelofGear]

Michael Matthews easily if they don't make the race harder than last year.

Ala and Bala will be stupid enough to wait for the sprint. The final in Ans is easier than Mur De Huy and this year he is stronger for the Ardennes.

 

[Red Rick]

The Oracle hath spoken

Vincenzo Nibali of Messina will win this bike race.

It is known.

 

[Netserk]

Go attackers! Let Redoute be stormed this year _O_

edit: and if all fails and it ends with an Ans sprint, it'd be delightful if Bling teaches the favourites a lesson.

 

[WheelofGear]

Nibali is so overhyped for the hilly classics. There are better candidates from long range attacks such as Dumoulin or Thomas.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Go attackers! Let Redoute be stormed this year _O_

Think it might happen if the new Liege finish also includes ditching Saint Nicolas.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

Nibali is so overhyped for the hilly classics. There are better candidates from long range attacks such as Dumoulin or Thomas.

What, when?

 

[WheelofGear]

"Cote de Bellevaux KM 172 6.8 Km at 1.1%"

Something must be wrong here because this is not a climb then.

 

[WheelofGear]

Re: Re:

Nibali is so overhyped for the hilly classics. There are better candidates from long range attacks such as Dumoulin or Thomas.

What, when?

They are faster than him if it comes down to a sprint and I don't think he can drop any of them. If anything, both Dumo and Thomas can drop Nibali on those climbs.

 

[Netserk]

I hope Bahrain will force a furious pace over several climbs, but especially over Redoute. Then launch Ion at the top, and have Squalo ready for RaF.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Nibali is so overhyped for the hilly classics. There are better candidates from long range attacks such as Dumoulin or Thomas.

What, when?

They are faster than him if it comes down to a sprint and I don't think he can drop any of them. If anything, both Dumo and Thomas can drop Nibali on those climbs.

I like how a dudes who haven't done better than 4th in CSS and another with no results in hilly classics, neither of which are aiming for this race have a bigger chance than a double Lombardia champ who also won Sanremo this year, all 3 wins coming in solo moves.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

"Cote de Bellevaux KM 172 6.8 Km at 1.1%"

Something must be wrong here because this is not a climb then.

Changed it. You can't trust the official website.

 

[WheelofGear]

I'm willing to delete my account if Michael Matthews doesn't win it (if it comes down to a sprint). I'm 100% sure that they can't beat him. He was 4th after having worked (for a change) for Barguil.

There is no way on earth that Bala/Ala can outsprint him this year. The final is simply not hard enough.

 

[Frankschleck]

Re: Re:

Nibali is so overhyped for the hilly classics. There are better candidates from long range attacks such as Dumoulin or Thomas.

What, when?

They are faster than him if it comes down to a sprint and I don't think he can drop any of them. If anything, both Dumo and Thomas can drop Nibali on those climbs.

I like how a dudes who haven't done better than 4th in CSS and another with no results in hilly classics, neither of which are aiming for this race have a bigger chance than a double Lombardia champ who also won Sanremo this year, all 3 wins coming in solo moves.

Well Nibali got dropped by Jack Haig, and it is not like he has looked very strong this year compared to other climbers and hill specialist. But that is the good thing about Nibali, even though he almost never is the strongest, he will try anyway, and that worked in San remo. I do agree with that Dumo and Thomas will be stronger, but Nibali might still have a chance.

 

[WheelofGear]

Yeah.

Nibali is SOOO overrated for the hills. The man doesn't have a punch. He even has a better chance in Paris-Roubaix.

 

[Bardamu]

Re: Re:

Nibali is so overhyped for the hilly classics. There are better candidates from long range attacks such as Dumoulin or Thomas.

What, when?

They are faster than him if it comes down to a sprint and I don't think he can drop any of them. If anything, both Dumo and Thomas can drop Nibali on those climbs.

I like how a dudes who haven't done better than 4th in CSS and another with no results in hilly classics, neither of which are aiming for this race have a bigger chance than a double Lombardia champ who also won Sanremo this year, all 3 wins coming in solo moves.

I agree. Dumoulin has the skillset to potentially win it, but he is the 15th biggest favourite or so. Nibali has proven himself to take advantage of situations in races even when he is not the strongest. He can win but also end up 50th.

 

[Pantani_lives]

*****Alaphilippe, Valverde
****Nibali, Vanendert
***Fuglsang, Bardet, Teuns
**Kreuziger, Kwiatkowski, D. Martin, Wellens, Thomas
*Kangert, Gasparotto, Rolland, Gilbert, Dumoulin, Benoot

 

[WheelofGear]

Dumoulin has Matthews (the real pre-race favorite) in the peloton. He can just join the break without working and wait for Côte de Saint-Nicolas.

It's pretty simple.

 

[WheelofGear]

Re:

****** Matthews
*****Alaphilippe, Valverde
****Nibali, Vanendert
***Fuglsang, Bardet, Teuns
**Kreuziger, Kwiatkowski, D. Martin, Wellens, Thomas
*Kangert, Gasparotto, Rolland, Gilbert, Dumoulin, Benoot

FTFY.

 

[armchairclimber]

Re:

Alafpolak vs Valverde again. I wonder who will get 3rd place

This would suit me perfectly. Though I can't see the other teams let them have it their way. QS might work with movistar more now that they know that Alaphilippe CAN beat Valverde.

 

[Blanco]

Re:

Alafpolak vs Valverde again. I wonder who will get 3rd place

I don't know about that, it could be a very different race, it could be much more scenarios.
If it is usual uphill sprint in Ans then I agree, it's Bala vs Ala. I would give little advantage to Valverde, I think he's still the stronger of the two regardless of Wednesday's race.
But I think race will not end up that way. Whole peloton knows it will be a showdown of this two if they wait for that final drag. I predict a tactical war and all-out battle from La Redoute. Bahrain, AG2R, Mitchelton, Astana, Sky, Lotto, BMC all know what they should do. Fleche Wallonne showed them it's doable, and this is way longer and harder race, much harder to control.
Movistar will ride differently though, I think, with less controlling and more attempts to send riders in the break, something similar to what QS does. Valverde must be prepared to lose this race in order to win it.

 

[The Hegelian]

Re:

*****Alaphilippe, Valverde
****Nibali, Vanendert
***Fuglsang, Bardet, Teuns
**Kreuziger, Kwiatkowski, D. Martin, Wellens, Thomas
*Kangert, Gasparotto, Rolland, Gilbert, Dumoulin, Benoot

Some of those look a little off/maybe not paying attention to AG and FW? Nibali 4 stars after getting dropped by Haig in FW? D. Martin was dropped from the main group before the finale. Kreuziger has looked super good in both races, a three at least, I think he's a real chance to win. Matthews no star??

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re: Re:

****** Matthews
*****Alaphilippe, Valverde
****Nibali, Vanendert
***Fuglsang, Bardet, Teuns
**Kreuziger, Kwiatkowski, D. Martin, Wellens, Thomas
*Kangert, Gasparotto, Rolland, Gilbert, Dumoulin, Benoot

FTFY.

Yes, I overlooked him, but I think the race won't be as passive as last year and he will be dropped on the climbs.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re: Re:

*****Alaphilippe, Valverde
****Nibali, Vanendert
***Fuglsang, Bardet, Teuns
**Kreuziger, Kwiatkowski, D. Martin, Wellens, Thomas
*Kangert, Gasparotto, Rolland, Gilbert, Dumoulin, Benoot

Some of those look a little off/maybe not paying attention to AG and FW? Nibali 4 stars after getting dropped by Haig in FW? D. Martin was dropped from the main group before the finale. Kreuziger has looked super good in both races, a three at least, I think he's a real chance to win. Matthews no star??

D. Martin had bad luck. Something happened to Nibali in the descent, but he looked good on the climbs. Maybe Kreuziger should have three stars, yes.