108th Milano - Sanremo, 18th March 2017, 291 km, WT

[Max Rockatansky]

Cipressa & Poggio

Teams

Astana (Gatto, Moser, Valgren)
Trek - Segafredo (Degenkolb, Stuyven, Felline)
Team Sky (Viviani, Moscon, Kwiatkowski)
Bahrain Merida Pro Cycling Team (Colbrelli)
Bora - Hansgrohe (Sagan, Bennett)
Dimension Data (Cavendish, EBH)
Movistar Team (Bennati)
Team Katusha - Alpecin (Kristoff)
FDJ (Démare)
Cannondale-Drapac Pro Cycling Team (Slagter, Uran)
UAE Team Emirates (Swift, Modolo)
Team Sunweb (Matthews, Dumoulin, Arndt)
Team LottoNL-Jumbo (Lobato)
Quick-Step Floors (Gaviria, Boonen, Trentin, Alaphilippe)
Lotto Soudal (Wellens)
AG2R La Mondiale (Enger, Bakelants)
BMC Racing Team (GvA)
ORICA-Scott (Ewan, Cort Nielsen)
Bardiani - CSF
Androni Giocattoli - Sidermec
Nippo - Vini Fantini
Wilier Triestina
Team Novo Nordisk
Cofidis, Solutions Crédits (Bouhanni)
Gazprom Rusvelo


2016 | DéMARE Arnaud (31)
2015 | DEGENKOLB John (27)
2014 | KRISTOFF Alexander (26)
2013 | CIOLEK Gerald (7)
2012 | GERRANS Simon (3)
2011 | GOSS Matthew (7)
2010 | FREIRE Oscar (25)
2009 | CAVENDISH Mark (2)
2008 | CANCELLARA Fabian (1)
2007 | FREIRE Oscar (46)

(Riders in the same time as the race winner)

Weather forecast: 19C°, Periods of clouds and sun, Wind WNW 9 km/h (Gusts: 17 km/h)

 

[TommyGun]

There is just something about this race that makes it so exciting... I don't mind sitting in front of the TV for 3 hours watching riders cruising around the Ligurian coast, even if nothing happens: it is all about the tension slowly building up until the top of the Poggio, where all bets are off.

Anyway, after 3 years of "bunch" sprints, I would like to see a small group of strongmen making a decivise move before the descent, with the likes of Sagan, Kwiatkowsky or Alaphilippe.

 

[RedheadDane]

What's the requirement for getting a mention in the brackets? The bolded are winners, but the others? People who might do something?

 

[the asian]

First time I'm hoping for a bunch sprint in a race.

Gaviria FTW !

 

[Bye Bye Bicycle]

Re:

There is just something about this race that makes it so exciting... I don't mind sitting in front of the TV for 3 hours watching riders cruising around the Ligurian coast, even if nothing happens: it is all about the tension slowly building up until the top of the Poggio, where all bets are off.

This.

MSR is THE start of the main season for me, and the monument I love the most. I agree that others are bigger, harder or more important - but it is MSR that I fall for every year.

 

[May0maniac]

This race badly needs Le Manie, otherwise the chances of getting a bunch sprint are just too high.

 

[barmaher]

What is the latest on Le Manie and La Pompeiana (apologies if I have got the spelling wrong)?

Are there any plans to reintroduce them in the future?

 

[sQiD]

The most boring race of the entire calendar by far. They say : it's the riders who make the race not the route. But how is that possible if it's 264 km flat ?

 

[Valv.Piti]

Not really a big fan of this race, but its a monument and all the best riders will be here, so obviously gonna watch. The finale is terrific tho. My pick is Gaviria, but I wouldn't care too much either if Sagan won, it would look pretty on his palmarés. But history shows it has been an outsider who have won the last many years, a cheeky one could by Sonny.

 

[fauniera]

Re:

There is just something about this race that makes it so exciting... I don't mind sitting in front of the TV for 3 hours watching riders cruising around the Ligurian coast, even if nothing happens: it is all about the tension slowly building up until the top of the Poggio, where all bets are off.

And then the Poggio is almost always a disappointment...

Anyway, after 3 years of "bunch" sprints, I would like to see a small group of strongmen making a decivise move before the descent, with the likes of Sagan, Kwiatkowsky or Alaphilippe.

Very unlikely to happen without Le Manie and with good weather.

 

[SKSemtex]

Re:

The most boring race of the entire calendar by far !

Unless it is raining snowing and freezing like in 2013. I loved that edition. I admired so much every single rider who did not give up and finish the race.

Sagan looked like ironman that day. It was probably his last chance to win it. Unless they do something with the route (and I think they do not ) it is going to be very hard to defeat all top tier sprinters with their strong teams.

Since that day I have been considering him as a rider for "armageddon" weather but that was actually probably the last time I saw him doing good in terrible weather conditions. Probably his last two Sierra Nevada preparation made him like riding in rainy days again.

 

[May0maniac]

Re:

What is the latest on Le Manie and La Pompeiana (apologies if I have got the spelling wrong)?

Are there any plans to reintroduce them in the future?

No idea, last year there was a ton of crying about the boring race and the rather odd winner in Italy (that wouldn't have happened if a 2nd rate Italian sprinter, let's say Cimolai, had won it) and even La Gazzetta talked about how the race became a sprinters classic and a possible route change, they even interviewed great Italian winners of the past and asked them about it, so I assumed that RCS wanted to change the route, but now we still have the same route.

 

[Flamin]

Damn you, good weather. I hope for a super elite break to go on Poggio or the descent but not gonna happen most likely. I think a late surge on the flat has more chances (thinking of Trentin here) but still slim. There's so many guys that rightfully think they can win by gambling on their sprint, I would be very surprised if this doesn't end in a bunch sprint.

Quick Step just announced their team. No Stybar... Gaviria, Alaphilippe, Boonen, Gilbert, Trentin, Bauer, Vermote and Sabatini. Sick team.

 

[sQiD]

Re: Re:

The most boring race of the entire calendar by far !

Unless it is raining snowing and freezing like in 2013. I loved that edition. I admired so much every single rider who did not give up and finish the race.

Sagan looked like ironman that day. It was probably his last chance to win it. Unless they do something with the route (and I think they do not ) it is going to be very hard to defeat all top tier sprinters with their strong teams.

Since that day I have been considering him as a rider for "armageddon" weather but that was actually probably the last time I saw him doing good in terrible weather conditions. Probably his last two Sierra Nevada preparation made him like riding in rainy days again.

Last year, Peter's tactic was to mark Cancellara. So he didn't take any initiative and it ended with a disapointing finish.
This time, having won already a monument and with Bennett behind, he has 3 options :

1. Attack early on the Pogio, create a big gap on the descent and time trialling to the finish line alone (dream scenario).
2. Follow attacks from Kawazaki or GVA on the Pogio, work with them until the sprint (could lose to Kwito if he dosen't collaborate).
3. Wait untill the buch sprint if Bennett dosen't make it to the Pogio (30% of winning vs Demarre & Gaviria).

 

[frisenfruitig]

Re: Re:

The most boring race of the entire calendar by far !

Unless it is raining snowing and freezing like in 2013. I loved that edition. I admired so much every single rider who did not give up and finish the race.

Sagan looked like ironman that day. It was probably his last chance to win it. Unless they do something with the route (and I think they do not ) it is going to be very hard to defeat all top tier sprinters with their strong teams.

Since that day I have been considering him as a rider for "armageddon" weather but that was actually probably the last time I saw him doing good in terrible weather conditions. Probably his last two Sierra Nevada preparation made him like riding in rainy days again.

His last chance to win it? Come on man, don't be ridiculous. He will be a contender every single year. He could win in a sprint if the other sprinters are tired enough or he could win by attacking on the Poggio.

 

[SKSemtex]

Re: Re:

The most boring race of the entire calendar by far !

Unless it is raining snowing and freezing like in 2013. I loved that edition. I admired so much every single rider who did not give up and finish the race.

Sagan looked like ironman that day. It was probably his last chance to win it. Unless they do something with the route (and I think they do not ) it is going to be very hard to defeat all top tier sprinters with their strong teams.

Since that day I have been considering him as a rider for "armageddon" weather but that was actually probably the last time I saw him doing good in terrible weather conditions. Probably his last two Sierra Nevada preparation made him like riding in rainy days again.

Last year, Peter's tactic was to mark Cancellara. So he didn't take any initiative and it ended with a disapointing finish.
This time, having won already a monument and with Bennett behind, he has 3 options :

1. Attack early on the Pogio, create a big gap on the descent and time trialling to the finish line alone (dream scenario).
2. Follow attacks from Kawazaki or GVA on the Pogio, work with them until the sprint (could lose to Kwito if he dosen't collaborate).
3. Wait untill the bunch sprint if Bennett dosen't make it to the Pogio (30% of winning vs Demarre & Gaviria).

I dream of attack with Kwia and GVA as well but I am afraid the bunch will be too big and too fast with all those dedicated sprint teams and especially QS and its rising star Gaviria, that nobody has a chance to escape from inevitable bunch sprint finish . Only strong tailwind and rain can make it happen.

 

[GP Blanco]

Re:

Quick Step just announced their team. No Stybar... Gaviria, Alaphilippe, Boonen, Gilbert, Trentin, Bauer, Vermote and Sabatini. Sick team.

Makes sense. Sabatini is a dedicated lead out.

 

[SKSemtex]

Re:

Damn you, good weather. I hope for a super elite break to go on Poggio or the descent but not gonna happen most likely. I think a late surge on the flat has more chances (thinking of Trentin here) but still slim. There's so many guys that rightfully think they can win by gambling on their sprint, I would be very surprised if this doesn't end in a bunch sprint.

Quick Step just announced their team. No Stybar... Gaviria, Alaphilippe, Boonen, Gilbert, Trentin, Bauer, Vermote and Sabatini. Sick team.

I would not be surprised if Alaphilippe ( dear Forum, please, give this buy a nick name ) will attack on Cipressa just to wear Sagan down a little.

 

[SKSemtex]

Re: Re:

The most boring race of the entire calendar by far !

Unless it is raining snowing and freezing like in 2013. I loved that edition. I admired so much every single rider who did not give up and finish the race.

Sagan looked like ironman that day. It was probably his last chance to win it. Unless they do something with the route (and I think they do not ) it is going to be very hard to defeat all top tier sprinters with their strong teams.

Since that day I have been considering him as a rider for "armageddon" weather but that was actually probably the last time I saw him doing good in terrible weather conditions. Probably his last two Sierra Nevada preparation made him like riding in rainy days again.

His last chance to win it? Come on man, don't be ridiculous. He will be a contender every single year. He could win in a sprint if the other sprinters are tired enough or he could win by attacking on the Poggio.

I know he will have every year a chance to win. From 10 - 20 % I should have said "his last chance to win it by attack being the strongest guy in the race)

 

[sQiD]

Re: Re:

I dream of attack with Kwia and GVA as well but I am afraid the bunch will be too big and too fast with all those dedicated sprint teams and especially QS and its rising star Gaviria, that nobody has a chance to escape from inevitable bunch sprint finish . Only strong tailwind and rain can make it happen.

The dream scenario for me is to stay alone until the finish line. Last year, he had the power to respond to Cancellara
in the last KM but just didn't take the opportunity to counter attack. This time, he is stronger and already won 3 times, so he can takes risks on the Pogio. As Peter says, everything is possible and it's Roubaix which remain his first objective this season.

 

[Max Rockatansky]

Re: Re:

The most boring race of the entire calendar by far !

Unless it is raining snowing and freezing like in 2013. I loved that edition. I admired so much every single rider who did not give up and finish the race.

Sagan looked like ironman that day. It was probably his last chance to win it. Unless they do something with the route (and I think they do not ) it is going to be very hard to defeat all top tier sprinters with their strong teams.

Since that day I have been considering him as a rider for "armageddon" weather but that was actually probably the last time I saw him doing good in terrible weather conditions. Probably his last two Sierra Nevada preparation made him like riding in rainy days again.

Last year, Peter's tactic was to mark Cancellara. So he didn't take any initiative and it ended with a disapointing finish.
This time, having won already a monument and with Bennett behind, he has 3 options :

1. Attack early on the Pogio, create a big gap on the descent and time trialling to the finish line alone (dream scenario).
2. Follow attacks from Kawazaki or GVA on the Pogio, work with them until the sprint (could lose to Kwito if he dosen't collaborate).
3. Wait untill the buch sprint if Bennett dosen't make it to the Pogio (30% of winning vs Demarre & Gaviria).

It will stay a dream. There is always strong head wind in the Poggio. It's impossible to gain enough there and not die later. I have been there, it's tough. If it would be a possibility, Cancellara would have done it, no doubt. Maybe it's not that much wind this time. It looks a bit like it.

Best chance to avoid the sprint is a late Poggio attack, attacking out of the descent or on the last 2k. Still you need a monster engine or company.

What do you guys think of Nibali? Faking that he is not in good shape and then attacking on the descent? Just a feeling.

Edit: Nevermind, no squalo.

 

[SKSemtex]

I used to like this race. Especially 2013 edition, so I decided to visit it by myself on 2014 and to tell the truth I was very disappointed by its atmosphere. Nor in Milan neither in San Remo I had a feeling that something special is going on in the town. Monument? Maybe by history. It looks like people in Italy lost the passion to this sport.
The difference against the RVV is so huge. :sad:

 

[SafeBet]

I say this every year and I understand why some posters dislike this race, but I reckon the route is just fine.
I know what I'm getting: a doomed break, a couple of strong late attacks with a 1% chance, full gas up the Poggio, nervous descending and then let's check who's there and who's not.

Predictable, but I like it.

 

[sQiD]

Nibali !... he's overweight, so no chance.
As for a late attack on the Pogio, there are 3 guys who can collaborate with Peter : GVA, Matthews and Wellens.
If he goes with Kwiato, Alaphillipe or Felline, they won't work with him cause they have their main sprinter behind.

 

[SafeBet]

Nibali won't ride MSR.