2010 Giro d'Italia... Who will win?

[Moondance]

Only two weeks or so left until The Big One, the Giro, the undisputed best stage race of the year starts in Amsterdam.

So let the mud slinging start! Who will conquer the Zoncolan, Mortirolo and Gavia (all of them are in) this year?

 

[Moondance]

I'm personally torn between Pellizotti and Evans. Evans has been in great form all season so far, and will really go for it. Pellizotti's been invisible so far this season, but thats probably tactics, saving his energy given that the toughest Giro week is, as usual, the final one.

While I'd actually really like to see Evans win, I'm going with Pellizotti myself. When the course was announced some months back I was one of the many who said that it looked tailor made for Franco. I'm sticking to my guns now.

BMC, as a team, will be very week, while Liquigas will probably be stacked with climbing talent. If Evans and Pellizotti swapped teams I'd pick Evans without my of a 2nd thought, but situations being what they are (and there is a 32km TTT) I'm saying Pellizotti edges it in a thrilling battle, like Di Luca v. Menchov last year.

 

[issoisso]

Pellizotti and Sastre are very close in my eyes. A week ago I would've edged Pellizotti, but he's been beyond awful at the Trentino.

Evans is strong, but he's not going to drop them on the climbs, he won't gain much at all in the flat TTs and he's going to lose a bunch of time not only in the mountains, but also in the TTT.

 

[Moondance]

Pellizotti and Sastre are very close in my eyes. A week ago I would've edged Pellizotti, but he's been beyond awful at the Trentino.

Evans is strong, but he's not going to drop them on the climbs, he won't gain much at all in the flat TTs and he's going to lose a bunch of time not only in the mountains, but also in the TTT.

Sastre hasn't done much better this season

 

[kurtinsc]

Has the BMC squad been announced for the Giro yet?

Hincappie rides a solid TT, and Frank and Frei are okay.

Do they have the riders to have at least 5 TT guys to limit losses to an acceptable level?

 

[hfer07]

Sastre hasn't done much better this season

Moondance-I was going to start the threat-damn

Sastre has the same training like last year prior to the Giro and he finished 3rd.
So he's going to be there for sure. Evans will battle it out too-but I don't now how he'll handle the very steep mountains & now with the teammates situation ongoing ... Pellizotti has the credentials to pull the victory, unless something goes wrong...

top 3 (order no relevant)

Sastre
Evans
Pellizotti

 

[issoisso]

Has the BMC squad been announced for the Giro yet?

Hincappie rides a solid TT, and Frank and Frei are okay.

Do they have the riders to have at least 5 TT guys to limit losses to an acceptable level?

TTTs are short pulls. Look at the results of TTTs and you'll realize you need good prologue riders, not good TT riders.

Sastre hasn't done much better this season

Sastre is saving himself and riding little. Pellizotti isn't that type. When Pellizotti doesn't show something, that's smoke right there.

Still. Anything can happen. I can't wait.

 

[nvpacchi]

And Simoni makes this poll...??

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Evans can't win a Grand Tour, and Basso is not the same Basso he once was.
I think Vinokourov has a good shot

 

[Moondance]

Sastre is saving himself and riding little. Pellizotti isn't that type. When Pellizotti doesn't show something, that's smoke right there.

Still. Anything can happen. I can't wait.

Last year Pellizotti finished 2nd in the Giro and took a stage. According to CQ his pre-Giro record consisted of:

18th: Giro del Friuli
23rd: Tirreno-Adriatico
DNF: Giro del Trentino
47th: Liege-Bastogne-Liege
7th: GP Industria & Artigianato - Larciano
47th: Giro di Toscana

Saved himself last year (seems like) and is probably doing the same this year.

 

[Moondance]

And Simoni makes this poll...??

Old times sake.

If had had known Pozzovivo had won the Trentino stage when I made the poll I would've probably gone with him as the #9 man.... But I didn't know. I don't think Cunego, Scaponi or Garzelli realistically have any shot to win either, but it's better than leaving the spots blank, isn't it?

Also, since there is an "other" option technically everyone is in.

 

[nvpacchi]

Old times sake.

If had had known Pozzovivo had won the Trentino stage when I made the poll I would've probably gone with him as the #9 man.... But I didn't know.

Also, since there is an "other" option technically everyone is in.

Gotta give the old man some love-definitely good to see him riding the Giro one last time.

Looking at the elevation of Zoncolan makes me want to wet myself. The last six days seem perfect for the likes of Sastre considering he has all of seven days of racing under his belt. I feel he'll peak at the perfect time in the Giro.

Sastre wins in glorious form on stage 20 up Passo del Tonale. Pellizotti and Evans round out the top 3.

 

[Moondance]

Vino proving popular with the voters... Perhaps one of them would care to explain how they think he'll win?

I can't see Vino sticking close to Evans, Pellizotti or Sastre on the Zoncolan, and he'll get massacred on the Kronplatz... But perhaps one of his many supporters will say otherwise?

Don't get me wrong, i LOVE Vino... But I don't think he can win.

 

[issoisso]

Last year Pellizotti finished 2nd in the Giro and took a stage. According to CQ his pre-Giro record consisted of:

18th: Giro del Friuli
23rd: Tirreno-Adriatico
DNF: Giro del Trentino
47th: Liege-Bastogne-Liege
7th: GP Industria & Artigianato - Larciano
47th: Giro di Toscana

Saved himself last year (seems like) and is probably doing the same this year.

Those placings are hard to get. In his current form he wouldn't be anywhere near them.

 

[nvpacchi]

Pellizotti and Sastre are very close in my eyes. A week ago I would've edged Pellizotti, but he's been beyond awful at the Trentino.

Evans is strong, but he's not going to drop them on the climbs, he won't gain much at all in the flat TTs and he's going to lose a bunch of time not only in the mountains, but also in the TTT.

The TTT has 200m of climbing in it, does anyone feel that would level the playing field out and cripple the pure time trialists a little bit?

 

[lucybears]

Has the BMC squad been announced for the Giro yet?

Hincappie rides a solid TT, and Frank and Frei are okay.

Do they have the riders to have at least 5 TT guys to limit losses to an acceptable level?

9 from
BALLAN Alessandro
BEYER Chad
BOOKWALTER Brent
EVANS Cadel
KOHLER Martin
LOUDER Jeff
MORABITO Steve
MURPHY John
SANTAMBROGIO Mauro
SCHÄR Michael
STALDER Florian
STEWART Jackson
WYSS Danilo
ZAHNER Simon

Wednesday, April 21, 2010 BMC Racing's Thomas Frei tests postive for EPO
http://www.velonation.com/News.aspx

 

[Ferminal]

Franco will be ahead after all miles against the clock are considered. Liquigas take at least a minute off BMC, and 20-30km ITT is only a minute which Cuddles will get back. The mountain ITT is an unknown but I think Pellizotti is probably ahead.

Evans needs to be super strong in the mountains, and I don't know if he has it over such strong climbs as Zoncolan.

 

[Moondance]

9 from
BALLAN Alessandro
BEYER Chad
BOOKWALTER Brent
EVANS Cadel
KOHLER Martin
LOUDER Jeff
MORABITO Steve
MURPHY John
SANTAMBROGIO Mauro
SCHÄR Michael
STALDER Florian
STEWART Jackson
WYSS Danilo
ZAHNER Simon

Wednesday, April 21, 2010 BMC Racing's Thomas Frei tests postive for EPO
http://www.velonation.com/News.aspx

Those guys are probably out too... Although it wouldn't surprise me if the self-imposed ban gets lifted in the next two weeks.

Either way, that's still a rather poor looking lineup for the TTT... Although I don't really know who's the clear favorite among the GC teams (Garmin will win the day I imagine, but Vande Velde is riding this for training not contending). Liquigas will be strong, even though Nibali and Kreuziger won't be there. Cervelo will have Sastre, Tondo, Konovalovas & others... A few strong guys there.

 

[trompe le monde]

I'm looking forward to the Giro as well.

I don't know why Cunego is there as a poll option as didn't someone either from Lampre or his manager say something to the effect that 'the Cunego that won the Giro no longer exists'. Cunego as a GC candidate, is dead.

I voted Sastre. I know the Cervelo Test Team ethos isn't injected with steroid induced rage to win at all costs, but surely they would like to be major players in the GC of at least one grand tour and I think Le Tour may be too hard/competitive for them to make a GC point this year. Plus the Kronplatz TT may be enough for Sastre to gain an advantage over others such as Cuddles for example.

Just my two kopeks.

 

[Moondance]

The TTT has 200m of climbing in it, does anyone feel that would level the playing field out and cripple the pure time trialists a little bit?

200m of climbing spread gradually over the 30+ kms. No decent time triallist should find it too difficult.

 

[Mellow Velo]

What's not to like about the Giro?
The fact that I can't call an outright favourite makes it special.
I'm wondering about the Liquigas team demographic.
How will that pan out and if they hold the expected double-edged sword, going into the third week, will they come up with a better tactic than they employed last year, against Big Den?
Can Sastre stay in contention and hit form in the third, gruelling week?
Can Cadel overcome the handicap of an inexperienced squad, put Tour dreams on hold and give his best for his only realistic GT shot?
Will old Mr Grumpy be able to "mentor" The Little Prince back to 2004 form?

Or will Vino conquer the Corones, Zoncolan and Mortirolo walls and put the clinic into meltdown?

 

[issoisso]

20-30km ITT is only a minute which Cuddles will get back

There is no such ITT. There's a prologue, a frighteningly hard mountain TT and a 15km TT that's 65% climb and technical descent.

 

[theyoungest]

Those guys are probably out too... Although it wouldn't surprise me if the self-imposed ban gets lifted in the next two weeks.

Either way, that's still a rather poor looking lineup for the TTT... Although I don't really know who's the clear favorite among the GC teams (Garmin will win the day I imagine, but Vande Velde is riding this for training not contending). Liquigas will be strong, even though Nibali and Kreuziger won't be there. Cervelo will have Sastre, Tondo, Konovalovas & others... A few strong guys there.

They've done a course recon already, so at least Evans feels like he's being taken seriously, which apparently is all he cares about (it can't be the quality of the team, after all).

 

[Andrichuk]

I'll be cheering for Astana (as long as AC isn't riding I like this team). I'm also excited to watch Bbox.

 

[ttrider]

Sastre can get on form with little racing, his experience will help
hes also broken the mental barrier of winning a gt
the course is made for him and the ttt wont be an issue
the harder the course mountain wise in the third week the better he is,
zoncolan, plan de corones, mortirolo and gavia are hard as you get