2011 Tour de France - Alpe d'Huez stage

[nslckevin]

I've been thinking about this stage since they announced it and I think this could be one of the most exciting stages of the Tour. Here's why:

1. It's the last chance for any climber to gain time before the final TT.
2. It's a short stage and I think it will be raced more aggressively than most mountain stages.

Here's how I think it will play out.

They will go pretty fast over the Telegraphe/Galibier, but since it's 50km downhill to the bottom of Alpe d'Huez, nobody on GC will be willing to fully go for it on the Galibier. I think they will crest the Galibier with a fairly large group containing pretty much all the favorites and probably a fair number of their helpers. Then, over the next 50km of gradual downhill LOTS of riders will chase back on.

As they approach Bourg d'Oisans and the bottom of the climb I think that the group will be huge. Maybe 80-100 guys even. There will be lots of teams wanting to get their climbers up to the front for the bottom of the climb. I think that it will be like the peleton coming into the Forest in Paris-Roubaix. I think that guys like Cancellara and Jens Voigt will be on the front going 45-50 kph as they make the left turn to start the climb. The helpers will drill it as hard as they can until they blow and somebody else takes over until you're left with the favorites. I think that if a climber came around that first left more than 20 guys back they will have a very difficult time getting up to the front due to the pace.

It will be like the year when Ruberia hit it at the bottom for Armstrong when he gave "the look", but even more so. Guys will be exploding all over the place. It should be epic. At least I hope so.

What do you think?

 

[Race Radio]

I've been thinking about this stage since they announced it and I think this could be one of the most exciting stages of the Tour. Here's why:

1. It's the last chance for any climber to gain time before the final TT.
2. It's a short stage and I think it will be raced more aggressively than most mountain stages.

Here's how I think it will play out.

They will go pretty fast over the Telegraphe/Galibier, but since it's 50km downhill to the bottom of Alpe d'Huez, nobody on GC will be willing to fully go for it on the Galibier. I think they will crest the Galibier with a fairly large group containing pretty much all the favorites and probably a fair number of their helpers. Then, over the next 50km of gradual downhill LOTS of riders will chase back on.

As they approach Bourg d'Oisans and the bottom of the climb I think that the group will be huge. Maybe 80-100 guys even. There will be lots of teams wanting to get their climbers up to the front for the bottom of the climb. I think that it will be like the peleton coming into the Forest in Paris-Roubaix. I think that guys like Cancellara and Jens Voigt will be on the front going 45-50 kph as they make the left turn to start the climb. The helpers will drill it as hard as they can until they blow and somebody else takes over until you're left with the favorites. I think that if a climber came around that first left more than 20 guys back they will have a very difficult time getting up to the front due to the pace.

It will be like the year when Ruberia hit it at the bottom for Armstrong when he gave "the look", but even more so. Guys will be exploding all over the place. It should be epic. At least I hope so.

What do you think?

Good analysis. I have raced, trained, and floundered over those climbs. There are so many variables like weather, altitude, and a sketchy descent. I am not sure that there will be that many riders at the finish. This is the 3rd week of the Tour. Guys are going to be fried. The Telegraph/Galibier combo can do lots of damage, even if they hit it fresh

The joker is that descent. It is crazy long and if they work it they could bring many back.

 

[Marcus135]

I wouldnt be surprised to see someone like Carlos Sastre go for a long one man break other than that i think most of the big GC guys will hit the bottom with some helpers and it will be a big fight to the finish. A strong climber but weak TT rider like Schleck might go on the attack at the bottom to try to get as much time as possible.

 

[Anonymous]

It wouldnt surprise me if by the foot of the climb there arent about five guys left, the top 3 in the gc and a couple of chancers. The chancers go for the stage win while the top 3 completely nullify each others attacks and end up working together to put time into 4th placed Wiggins. All in all it turns out to be a complete dissapointment and a snoozefest.

In the other hand, Ricco and VInokourov attack after about 10k of the stage, and reach the base of the Alpe together. After constant attacking and counter attacking they eventually cross the line together, hand in hand.

 

[euanli]

I like Dim's take on it.

 

[Roland Rat]

It wouldnt surprise me if by the foot of the climb there arent about five guys left, the top 3 in the gc and a couple of chancers. The chancers go for the stage win while the top 3 completely nullify each others attacks and end up working together to put time into 4th placed Wiggins. All in all it turns out to be a complete dissapointment and a snoozefest.

In the other hand, Ricco and VInokourov attack after about 10k of the stage, and reach the base of the Alpe together. After constant attacking and counter attacking they eventually cross the line together, hand in hand.

And Rasmussen.

 

[euanli]

Miller was with them but blew up as usual

 

[galaxy1]

i am expecting this stage to be the most boring of the whole race. i bet they will all cruise over the galibier, then all the best climbers will arrive at the bottom fresh, in a largish group, and nullify each other.

 

[jens_attacks]

sastre and vino will attack on galibier.they will get caught 5 km to go on alpe d'huez.ricco will fly dropping basso,schleck and contador.david blanco will be the new yellow jersey because cadel will lose 9 minutes.morabito will cry with him.

 

[auscyclefan94]

EDIT: Inappropriate post

 

[Marcus135]

sastre and vino will attack on galibier.they will get caught 5 km to go on alpe d'huez.ricco will fly dropping basso,schleck and contador.david blanco will be the new yellow jersey because cadel will lose 9 minutes.morabito will cry with him.

*Gain
Watch your spelling there mate

 

[Parrulo]

Go take a long walk on a short bridge, please!

cus cadel losing a bunch of minutes on a stage never happened never willl happen ofc . . .

 

[Matthijs]

I think some people here will be dissappointed. Short mountain stages tend to make smaller gaps, weaker riders are simply able to follow longer. Maybe the racing is faster, but there will be more domestiques for all the GCman.
Carlos Sastre has the best results in longer, harder stages. He isn't the best man in riding in the bunch I understand, so the slightly higher speed will probably not be in his interest?

 

[Christian]

This is one of the weirdest stages in a long time IMO.

I don't think a break will be able to make it, it's simply too short.

It'll be nervous as heck all the way from start to finish. Breakaway constantly at around 2-4 minutes ahead of the peloton, constant attacks from the peloton.

You'll need a really strong team to control this stage!

 

[El Pistolero]

Either a breakaway or Andy Schleck will win.

Unless RoboBasso returns or Ricco surprises everyone.

 

[Archibald]

Go take a long walk on a short bridge, please!

LOL!!
i'm I the only one getting a flashback to Biff in Back to the Future - "now make like a tree, and get outta here!"??

ACF, surely you've heard of a "jetty" before?

Anyway, back to l'Alpe - I reckon it'll go much the same way as the Tourmalet went this year, but more likely with a few staying with schlecklette a bit longer...
the other exception will be that I'll be at the roadside to watch

 

[Vonn Brinkman]

Sastre to go on the attack, followed by a few but they won't catch up with him. Sastre will take the KOM jersey here and win it. On the descent towards the Alpe Sastre will be caught, and a group of four, five guys will start the climb.
Peloton will come like a mad horse led by Cancellara and Voigt. 5 km from the line the breakaway will be caught. Ricco will destroy the field and take the win, but lose all the minutes he gained during the ITT the next day.

Menchov will crack, Basso will crack and Evans also. Andy to take second, followed by Anton and his brother.

OR Valverde will show up halfway through the race and beat Ricco in the sprint, only to be taken away by race commisars....Shame shame.

 

[The Hitch]

Having done absolutely nothing on any previous climb, all of which were soft peddaled, Andy Schleck takes his 10 second deficit to Samu Sanchez (the one guy who if not in yellow might attack on descent) onto the Alpe. He attacks at the 5k mark and gains 2 minutes and wins the tour.

Sorry guys it’s the tour not the giro

Alpe 2012 will be better.

Ps does anyone know if they are doing Alpe, Ventoux, Gallibier or neither in the dauphine?

 

[The Hitch]

OR Valverde will show up halfway through the race and beat Ricco in the sprint, only to be taken away by race commisars....Shame shame.

lol thats funny.

.david blanco will be the new yellow jersey because cadel will lose 9 minutes.morabito will cry with him.

so is that

 

[veganrob]

Contador has waited for this stage and destroys poor Andy, and Andy cries.

 

[benpounder]

The joker is that descent. It is crazy long and if they work it they could bring many back.

I'd say the wild card is Telegraphe/Galibier. Telegraphe is a tough climb, and when it comes at +20km of warm-up/downhill? I think you will see a very hard pace. With 4km of easy recovery after cresting Telegraphe till you hit Galibier, I suspect many riders will over extend themselves on Telegraphe. Many of those able to hang on over the first climb will think they have recovered enough to go hard on Galibier. Many will be mistaken. Sure, the ride down from Lautaret to Bourg-d'Oisans is "relatively" easy, but for the spent riders seeking to re-attach, they still have 15km of 7.9% up to the ski station of L'Aple D'Huez.

I agree that it will be a pivotal stage, but I think it will be higly animated from the start.

 

[royalpig180]

I wouldnt be surprised to see someone like Carlos Sastre go for a long one man break other than that i think most of the big GC guys will hit the bottom with some helpers and it will be a big fight to the finish. A strong climber but weak TT rider like Schleck might go on the attack at the bottom to try to get as much time as possible.

Yes but trying to predict who is impossible. That all depends on who is in the lead at that point (Shleck or otherwise), how large the gaps to other riders on GC are, and relative TTing skills. Obviously if Shleck is leading J. Rodriguez (unlikely that JRod would be that high probably, but roll wit me), he's not gonna attack. If he's behind Contador or Menchov, he will. There will be plenty of attacks though, don't worry from who.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Contador DNS and Gesink destroys the field

duh

 

[royalpig180]

Contador DNS and Gesink destroys the field

duh

wat about TGBM?

 

[Izzy eviel]

wat about TGBM?

Punctures on the first climb and doesn't make the time limit