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2011 Tour de France, Stage 10: Aurillac - Carmaux, 158 km

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jobiwan

jobiwan

Jul 28, 2010
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As the riders get back into the swing of things, we all hope that Stage 10 will have NO IMPACT WHATSOEVER on the GC. Hopefully the GC riders (and everyone else) can stay safe for the Pyrenees, and these next two days can shed some light on the Battle for Green.

The question is, will this stage be too hard for the likes of Cav and Farrar?

Green Jersey Classification:

1 Philippe Gilbert (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto 217 pts
2 Jose Joaquin Rojas Gil (Spa) Movistar Team 172
3 Mark Cavendish (GBr) HTC-Highroad 153
4 Thor Hushovd (Nor) Team Garmin-Cervelo 137
5 Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team 135
6 Romain Feillu (Fra) Vacansoleil-DCM Pro Cycling Team 99
7 André Greipel (Ger) Omega Pharma-Lotto 78
8 Tyler Farrar (USA) Team Garmin-Cervelo 76
9 Sébastien Hinault (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale 60
10 Denis Galimzyanov (Rus) Katusha Team 55

Map:

tdf2011_10sm_600.jpg


Profile:

tdf2011_10sp_600.jpg


Last KMs:

PROFILKMS.jpg


My pick: Cavendish to win and get closer to the Green.
 
just some guy

just some guy

Apr 9, 2011
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weird the highest point of the day gets no KOM points ?

Could be mayhem again with every man women and child wanting in on the break.
 
Ramira

Ramira

Mar 27, 2010
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Cobblestones said:
I feel a break takes this. Europcar would have to take control, but do they have the power?
Click to expand...

I think Sky will help out for Boasson Hagen (with Uran not showing to much yesterday he's pretty much all they got) and considering the likelyhood that Cavendish will get dropped Omega Pharma will probably work too.
 
jobiwan

jobiwan

Jul 28, 2010
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just some guy said:
weird the highest point of the day gets no KOM points ?

Could be mayhem again with every man women and child wanting in on the break.
Click to expand...

A good point. What teams really need to get in the break in the next two days? Obviously I think Stage 10 is a better opportunity.

Teams that need a Break:

Radioshack (Paulinho for a 2nd straight Stage 10 win?)
Non-Europcar French Teams
Euskaltel
Sky
Movistar

and probably more. Could be a BIG BREAK tomorrow.
 
Ramira

Ramira

Mar 27, 2010
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jobiwan said:
A good point. What teams really need to get in the break in the next two days? Obviously I think Stage 10 is a better opportunity.

Teams that need a Break:

Radioshack (Paulinho for a 2nd straight Stage 10 win?)
Non-Europcar French Teams
Euskaltel
Sky
Movistar

and probably more. Could be a BIG BREAK tomorrow.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure that Sky (with Boasson Hagen) and Movistar (with JJ Rojas) will really want a break, especially since they both already won a stage (Boasson Hagen and Rui Costa). I think it's more likely Vacansoleil (as always), Astana and Quickstep will want to be up front.
 
M

michaeld

Mar 6, 2010
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There are enough riders far enough back to send a non-threatening break up the road. Europcar might even place a rider up there to police it.

If the sprinters/green jersey contenders want the stage win, they'll have to chase. But watch BMC chase anyways:)
 
just some guy

just some guy

Apr 9, 2011
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michaeld said:
There are enough riders far enough back to send a non-threatening break up the road. Europcar might even place a rider up there to police it.

If the sprinters/green jersey contenders want the stage win, they'll have to chase. But watch BMC chase anyways:)
Click to expand...

I bet BMC are in the break
 
O

Old&slow

Jun 30, 2010
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Unless there is a crash like Stage 9 I don't see how a break stays away. There are to many teams interested in containing a break. Eurocar will want to hold onto yellow. HTC was talking it up 3-4 days ago that this is the stage for Goss although I would imagine that plan may change if Cav makes it over the hills. Moviestar will want a sprint as this stage is an excellent opportunity for a Rojas win. Sky will want a sprint for EBH or Thomas. VCD will want a sprint for Feillieu. Ag2r possibly for Hinault. Lotto for Greipel or more green points for Gilbert. A number of these teams really have nothing left in this tour other than the few sprint stages left. This is their best opportunity.

If one is looking for a successful break stage 13 looks to be the earliest best chance.
 
hrotha

hrotha

Jun 10, 2010
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Lotto is low in manpower and Garmin appear to be tired, but HTC and Sky should really work for a sprint finish for EBH and Goss/Cav. The profile looks like a breakaway made up of strong riders like the one we saw yesterday would be pretty hard to control, but it's a short stage so that should make it easier.
 
Ramira

Ramira

Mar 27, 2010
1,781
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hrotha said:
Lotto is low in manpower and Garmin appear to be tired, but HTC and Sky should really work for a sprint finish for EBH and Goss/Cav. The profile looks like a breakaway made up of strong riders like the one we saw yesterday would be pretty hard to control, but it's a short stage so that should make it easier.
Click to expand...

While it is true Lotto is low in manpower they also lost at least 1 if not 2 (Greipel might have to be a helper on everything but the pancake flat stages, remember how he helped Gilbert in MSR) leaders allowing the remaining riders to focus fully on getting opportunities for stage wins and the green jersey for Gilbert.
 
El Pistolero

El Pistolero

Jul 16, 2010
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tobsie said:
Looking forward to see how OLO is going to handle the Greipel/Gilbert situation.
Click to expand...

Greipel will be happy to work for Gilbert now. Greipel thanked Phil for the good work on the last stage Cav won. I think Greipel now knows he can't beat Cav and knows green is more important. That said, Greipel will still have his chances for the sprint even if he worked for Phil.

Let's not forget that VDB leaving doesn't have a negative effect on OPL's manpower. It has a "positive" effect as now they don't have to work for him anymore. Although Frederik Willems is gone as well...
 
T

tobsie

Aug 10, 2009
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El Pistolero said:
Greipel will be happy to work for Gilbert now. Greipel thanked Phil for the good work on the last stage Cav won. I think Greipel now knows he can't beat Cav and knows green is more important. That said, Greipel will still have his chances for the sprint even if he worked for Phil.

Let's not forget that VDB leaving doesn't have a negative effect on OPL's manpower. It has a "positive" effect as now they don't have to work for him anymore. Although Frederik Willems is gone as well...
Click to expand...

I really hope so. Phil winning the green jersey would be awesome
 
taiwan

taiwan

Aug 18, 2009
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It's a pain in the bum that even with JVDB gone, Greipel will be overlooked on every stage.
 
W

Waterloo Sunrise

Sep 9, 2009
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•Km 62.5 - Côte de Figeac - 2.3 km climb to 6 % - Category 3
•Km 70.5 - Côte de Loupiac - 2.5 km climb to 4.1 % - Category 4
•Km 99.5 - Côte de Villefranche-de-Rouergue - 4.1 km climb to 5.9 % - Category 3
•Km 143.0 - Côte de Mirandol-Bourgnounac - 3.9 km climb to 4.1 % - Category 4



Cav will make it if he tries. The only concern is if tomorrow has been pre-assigned to Goss. If that happens, Boassen will smoke him again.
 
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