2012 Giro d'Italia, May 9th, stage 4: Verona → Verona, 33.2 Kms TTT

[Eshnar]

Startlist: (All times are in CET)
1 AG2R LA MONDIALE 15.25’00″
2 EUSKALTEL – EUSKADI 15.28’00″
3 ANDRONI GIOCATTOLI – VENEZUELA 15.31’00″
4 LAMPRE – ISD 15.34’00″
5 LOTTO BELISOL TEAM 15.37’00″
6 COLNAGO – CSF INOX 15.40’00″
7 FDJ – BIGMAT 15.43’00″
8 FARNESE VINI – SELLE ITALIA 15.46’00″
9 KATUSHA TEAM 15.49’00″
10 MOVISTAR TEAM 15.52’00″
11 TEAM NETAPP 15.55’00″
12 RABOBANK CYCLING TEAM 15.58’00″
13 TEAM SAXO BANK 16.01’00″
14 LIQUIGAS – CANNONDALE 16.04’00″
15 ASTANA PRO TEAM 16.07’00″
16 OMEGA PHARMA – QUICKSTEP 16.10’00″
17 VACANSOLEIL – DCM PRO C.TEAM 16.13’00″
18 SKY PROCYCLING 16.16’00″
19 RADIOSHACK – NISSAN 16.19’00″
20 ORICA – GREENEDGE 16.22’00″
21 GARMIN – BARRACUDA 16.25’00″
22 BMC RACING TEAM 16.28’00″

 

[Froome19]

Garmin are the logical favorites but after Tirreno even with a changed team it is difficult to discount Greenedge and of course a possible Maglia Rosa for Goss.

My bet would go with Liquigas their previous records in TTT outside the tour have been superb considering that none of their riders are relatively fancied when it comes to TT. Their bike handling and team work make them a good unit and this is one of their strongest team (bar sagan and nibali) they could field. Question is whether the power of Garmin can be defeated by such especially considering that Vaughters is widely recognised as the specialist in TTT and as Garmin generally put in very impressive TTT perfomances.

BMC's chances all depend on Phinney and whether he will be in there still, he says he just has a foot wound etc and he will be fine but how will it effect him and thus the team in the TTT? Marco Pinotti was impressive as well in the prologue and he has the Giro as effectively his only target (bar TT nats) and generally guys like Hushovd, Ballan are strong and very helpful in TTT. Also BMC's team surprised in the tour with a team which though led by Evans was certainly not the strongest so i wouldnt put it pass them this time around.

Sky's hopes were majorly dented by Ben Swift not starting due to injury as he was in great form after just coming off the track and becoming a world champion. Yet guys like Hunt and stannard are very powerful riders on the flat and will be able to sacrifice themselves early for the team whilst Cav is also a great help in TTT, Sky are also a team who pride themselves on practising theit TTT and with Thomas who is in great form they certainly have a chance, yet Thomas has just come off the track where he has been focusing mainly on shorter distances (even though they do ride as much as 80km a day) so he may not be as effective as his stage 1 perfomance suggests. One question Sky have is whether they will be hampered by their 2 colombian climbers Henao and Uran, who struggle in longer TT, will they wait for them or go for getting Cav in the Maglia Rosa.

Radioshack have a very well spread out team, with Nizzolo having come 2nd in Romandie prologue and of course Bennatti who is generally a good TT as seen by his TA perfomance even though his Prologue was pretty awful. Oliviera has also been impressive in recent races and Jesse Sergent did decently in the prologue and is a good TT as well so they could do well ,yet their team surely would have had a better chance of success if they had Fuglsang and not Schleck as their leader.

Garmin have a super team which is firing on all cylinders. Alex Rasmussen will surely be the main driving force, after looking strong in the prologue and the longer flat distance will surely suit him. Yet Navardauskas, Rosseler, Hesjedal and Van de velde are all very impressive TT in their own right, and Hunter and Farrar, both sprinters who are generally very useful in driving the team in TTTs.

Greenedge have Svein Tuft who literally towed them to their TA TTT win and I expect something similar here from him, they also have IP record holder bobridge yet he was a bit disappointing in the Prologue and he may like Thomas may not be as effective on the longer course. Their natural strongmen in Lancaster, meier will all be very helpful and they have the looks of a team who have no real weak links.

The Italian teams of Androni i expect will not lose too much for Jose Rujano but Pozzovivo may lose quite a bit with Colnago. Jan Barta as well may find his top10 hopes hindered due to the weakness of his Netapp team, but I cant imagine anyone but Euskaltel keeping up their record of coming last in TTT, especially as their team is weak even for their standards.

Kreuziger's Astana will may a good case for top5 and will a bunch of good climbers and strong riders, who all look to be in form, and of course led by Kreuziger himself they may very well make a case for a top5 and limited damage.

Similarly Scarponi's Lampre have brought one of their strongest teams and the Italian National TT Champion should Malori should ensure they do make a fairly good attempt at a top 10 or even higher

. Omega Pharma as well have a strong team, and in Dario Cataldo I believe they have a pretty strong GC contender and with Julien Vermote and Kwiatowski both of whom have put in impressive perfomances this year in TT and generally their team is made up of riders who are helpful in TTT like Golas and Veilts.

 

[Gloin22]

Garmin or GreenEdge to me. Rasmussen in the pink after the TTT.

 

[jens_attacks]

1.omega
2.greenedge
3.garmin
4.sky
5.astana

androni to lose under a minute to omega.
colnago,ag2r and lampre around 1:30

 

[sucotash]

Lampre riders performance on the first stage was awful. If they do not cooperate well as a team they will lose a lot of time.

Lquigas has one very good TT man in form Bodnar, others were also quite good on saturday + they usually work good as a team so Basso should gain some seconds on Scarponi.


Gadret and nieve will lose a lot of time.. Ag2R and Euskaltel look awful in terms of time trialing.

Garmin are huge favourites. Green Edge, Omega and BMC should do good.

 

[Richeypen]

Cav is great in a TTT given that its really a disciplined set of extended sprints. A lot for Sky will depend on how he has recovered.

Voted Garmin but it will be very close between them, Greenedge and BMC

 

[Captain Sensible]

I will go for Garmin .

 

[shalgo]

Garmin: 5 of the top 17 in the stage one time trial.

 

[The Hitch]

Garmin probably, followed i hope by Sky.

 

[DominicDecoco]

Hopefully Garmin. That would mean Alex in pink.

With BMC and Sky having two important riders eating asphalt today I think it will be between GreenEdge and Garmin.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

A well organized Garmin team will take the win.

 

[Ney the Viking]

Garmin and Alex in pink Hope Leakygas and basso does well too.

 

[Duartista]

One question Sky have is whether they will be hampered by their 2 colombian climbers Henao and Uran, who struggle in longer TT, will they wait for them or go for getting Cav in the Maglia Rosa.

Uran is a perfectly competent time trialist (see last year's Dauphine ITT for example). I'm a bit concerned for Henao though.

 

[meandmygitane]

Hoping for Vacansoleil for fanboy reasons but they will have done well if they are top 5.
I think Garmin will take it (a well-oiled machine of a team, at least historically) before Radioshack Nissan-Trek. BMC third.

 

[Froome19]

Uran is a perfectly competent time trialist (see last year's Dauphine ITT for example). I'm a bit concerned for Henao though.

Granted, even though that course was a bit hilly which would have suited him more. A course which is flat out is a different proposition but he should acquit himself quite well.
In fact looking back to the tour TTT Uran actually was one of the 5 sky riders to cross the line first, so yeh you're right he will be fine.

Question is whether Sky will ask Henao to work or not.

 

[Afrank]

Garmin for the win, and BMC to just barely hang on to the jersey.

 

[Catwhoorg]

I think Garmin will take it. Sky not too far back (assuming Cav recovers), BMC and OPQS fight for 3rd.

 

[Froome19]

Just as some posters seem to have forgotten:
Giro TTT stage 4 2010 33km
1. Liquigas - Doimo 36'37"
AGNOLI Valerio, NIBALI Vincenzo, KISERLOVSKI Robert, DALL'ANTONIA Tiziano, BASSO Ivan, SZMYD Sylwester
2. Sky Professional Cycling Team 13"
BARRY Michael, WIGGINS Bradley, CUMMINGS Stephen, CIONI Dario David, HENDERSON Gregory
3. Team HTC - Columbia 21"
GOSS Matthew, PINOTTI Marco, LEWIS Craig, RABON Frantisek, GREIPEL Andre
22. Ag2r - La Mondiale 02'50"
KRIVTSOV Yuriy, EFIMKIN Alexander, MANDRI René, BONNAFOND Guillaume, TURPIN Ludovic, DUPONT Hubert, RAVARD Anthony, GADRET John


The Liquigas team also included: Bodnar, Sabatini and Vanotti

So 5 of those 9 are racing here and lets just remember that they put a commanding 13 seconds into their closest rivals and this course is basically indentical to the course of the TTT on this years Giro and this TTT was the last we have seen of this distance.

 

[DominicDecoco]

Garmin with quite a stronger setup this year though.

 

[Tigerion]

Voted greenedge for fanboy reasons, they have an outside shot at it so more heart than head

 

[meat puppet]

There was this postin the yesterday's race thread predicting rather large gaps in the TTT. It was an interesting post, speculations tend to be!, but I think the gaps were perhaps a tad too big.

Also the gaps were computed with the assumption of 52kph avg speed. That assumption migh be a bit too slow, IMO. In the 2010 Giro TTT, the winner's avg speed for a similar distance was considerably higher than 52kph (32,5k covered in 36m37s), and tomorrow's course is more than a bit flatter. The 2010 course was basically a sloooow burning false flat drag @1%. Tomorrow the first 12,7k are like that and then it's a false flat downhill to the finish.

Then again, if we disregard the way too big winning margin for Garmin in the predictions, in comparison to the 2010 Giro TTT, the predicted gaps were not that much off.

I also think Garmin will smoke it, BMC, Greenedge, Sky, RSNT following suit. OP test team and Cataldo's GC hopes is the question mark for me. Apart from the usual suspects, I somehow expect Lampre to lose big time. Might be wrong though.

I usually dislike the TTTs, because more often than not they contribute not that much to the race for GC since the favorites tend to gain time in TTTs anyway (see TDF 2011). This year though, and I know I'm a bit biased here, if Hesjedal gains say 1-1min30 that might actually make the race more interesting - the big guns will have to drop him one way or another. I'm pretty sure he will be put into serious difficulty come the mountains proper, but drop him they have to.

 

[theyoungest]

Now that Garmin is so overwhelmingly the favourite, they probably won't win. Although I don't see who could realistically beat them.

Liquigas have indeed done some good TTTs in the last few years, without having the best time trialists on their team. Just goes to show, it's a weird discipline.

 

[classicomano]

Euskaltel to finish outside the timelimit.

 

[RHRH19861986]

One has to say, TTTs really have become interesting since we have teams like BMC, GreenEdge, Sky, or Garmin... Only few years ago, it was USPS/Disco and CSC vs. Rest of the world, particularly in the Tour...
Looking forward to tomorrow, BMC/GEC/SKY/GAR/LIQ likely Top5, but in which order? It´ll be close, that´s for sure.

EDIT: Yes, and of course Astana, I forgot these guys...

 

[greenedge]

Garmin, GE, BMC.

Sky, Liquigas, Astana.

I don't know whether Phinney could actually keep the jersey but for some reason i do- it even feels harsh to put them as 3rd but GE/ Garmin are big favourites along with Sky ( but i do not know how well they will go )- so i shall say they will not top 3 as an outside pick.