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Edit: will copy and paste from preview thread to supplement Windless's work.
THE OPPORTUNISTS’ STAGE 10 - Mâcon Bellegarde-sur-Valserine194.5 km
Climbs:
• Km 90.0 - Côte de Corlier - 6.4 km climb to 5.5 % - Category 2
• Km 151.5 - Col du Grand Colombier (1 501 m) - 17.4 km climb to 7.1 % - Category H
• Km 174.0 - Col de Richemond - 7.2 km climb to 5 % - Category 3
Sprint at Km 130.5 – BÉON
This stage will come after a rest day, yet more significantly it follows the time trial at Besancon. This will mean that a major GC shake up will have occurred yet once again more importantly it means that the time triallist will be in the ascendency. This will result in the climbers being required to attack in order to again time on the time triallists and if there was any stage suited for long range, desperate attacks it is this one.
The stage is dominated by the climb of the Grande Colombier is certainly one of the hardest that will ever be found within French borders, if not the hardest there is. At 17.4km at 7.1% it is long and leg breaking whilst also being consistent, yet is also has gradients of up to 18% It is also the first time it has ever been climber in the Tour and therefore it is somewhat of an unknown factor. It was raced in the Dauphine yet the racing was tame and Sky were more than able to control proceedings. Supposedly though at the Tour it will be a whole different story. The kms before the climb are not particularly hard but as Prudhomme has so debatably yet in my opinion so cleverly done, by placing the climb nearly 50km away from the stage finish. With a long downhill this will certainly play into the hands of the time triallists and weaker climbers who will very possibly be able to make up any time they lose on the descent. This is where the climbers have to truly show what they have. Instead of thinking of the next stage with its summit finish which would be foolhardy as there are limited opportunities to attack and gain time within the Tour and wasting this one may be irreparable.
The climbers will undoubtedly have a go but it is likely we will see a group of 6 or so riders who will break away and attempt to co-operate to the finish as occurred at the Dauphine, due to the fact that soloing on the descent will likely result in the rider getting caught by the peloton. In the Dauphine a similar type of break went including Evans and Nibali, yet Sky after an initial period of hesitation comfortable caught the break. It is evidently not enough to breakaway but you need to carry out a stinging attack which will shatter the peloton and by the time an organised chase comes along the rider will have gained enough time to take the win and valuable time on GC. As crucial therefore as the climb itself will be the descent and therefore it will be vital for riders who attack to be strong descenders. Of the modern peloton Vincenzo Nibali is certainly one of the best descenders along with Samuel Sanchez and if either one or both of them attack they can hold their own on the descent and then through to the finish. Likewise Cadel Evans is a strong descender as we saw last year when he joined with Sanchez and Contador to distance the Schlecks on a descent. Bradley Wiggins has struggled in the past on descents and Menchov and Gesink are infamously poor when it comes to descending and this may be the opportunity for the other contenders to take time out of them.
After the Colombier and its grand descent there is another rather less profiled obstacle in the riders’ way in the form of the Col de Richemond it is 7.2km at 5% and is ranked a category 3 climb which may not mean much but it in fact may impact heavily on the stage proceedings as riders may take it as an opportunity to drop those who were on the brink on the Colombier or who came back on the descent. There is then another 20 km to the finish for the riders to contend with.
This stage will certainly not decide the winner but it may very well give us and the riders themselves a good indication and it will also inform the peloton who really wants to go full out for the Maillot Jaune, by attacking 50km out.
In my opinion the rider who will battle it out will involve the strong descenders of the contenders as mentioned before along with the climbers who have nothing to lose because if they don’t attack on this they will never be capable of recouping the amount of time they lost and will lose in time trials These include Pierre Rolland, Frank Schleck and Alejandro Valverde.
“The rest day in Maçon will be necessary for the riders to attack this tenth, new and very promising stage. Before the descent to Bellegarde-sur-Valserine, the climbers who may have lost a few seconds in Doubs will have the opportunity to pull themselves together in the ascent leading to the summit of the Col du Grand Colombier. This is the first time that the peloton of the Tour de France has been there.”
Christain Prudhomme
Stage Contenders: Fränk Schleck, Jurgen Van den Broeck, Jelle Vanendert,
Daniel Martin, Michele Scarponi, Pierre Rolland, Cadel Evans, Alejandro Valverde, Bauke Mollema, Chris Froome, Bradley Wiggins, Haimar Zubeldia, Denis Menchov, Vincenzo Nibali, Sylvain Chavanel, David Moncoutie, Rui Costa
Rest tomorrow tuesday, shake up wednesday.
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