2012 Tour de France: Stage 4: Abbeville → Rouen (214.5km)

Jul 5, 2011
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The 2nd mass sprint of the Tour de France 2012.

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Weather Forecast - Fécamp

Favourite - Cavendish. The challengers - Greipel, Goss, Sagan, Petacchi, Van Hummel, Renshaw, Haedo, Hutarovich, Kittel/Veelers, Farrar, Freire...
 
Mar 10, 2009
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Rain, T-storms and wind coming from the southwest...headwind/side wind.

Could be fun if the wind is strong enough.
 
Sep 9, 2009
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Lance Armstrong said:
What about that bump right before the finish? Looks something like 2km @ 4% to me.

Based on what they categorised in the rest of the stage, it can't be much.

Someone will try to go away, and Orica Lotto will pull them back.

Kittel will likely get dropped there.
 
Mar 10, 2009
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Lance Armstrong said:
What about that bump right before the finish? Looks something like 2km @ 4% to me.

I think they still have 4K to go after the bump. I am guessing that if the sprinters are in it for the win, they'll be able to hang on and power over it, catching a break or consolidating the sprint prep.

The only other thing that could have major implications, besides maybe the weather, is the last 1K or so which seems to involve a nasty right left combination over bridge (crossing the seine?)

"""""""""|_____
 
Sep 9, 2009
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What do the numbers below that mean - the 59m makes no sense with that distance and gradient - and the profile itself does not show that gradient for that distance.
 
Jul 24, 2011
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59m is the elevation at the selected point (white vertical stripe). I exactly copied the route, so.
 
Aug 18, 2009
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Yeah I think maybe that's the max. gradient, it's location and it's elevation - in the order loc, ele, gra.
 
Dec 30, 2011
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Vino attacks everyone said:
I am going for that outsider guy. WHat is he called again... Cavendish? :rolleyes:

He was at his limit when he narrowly beat Greiepel today, he was easily faster than all the other sprinters last year (stage 3 isnt counted) besides for the Stage 10 against Greipel it shows the expected decline in pace and if he doesnt find himself in the supreme positioning of Stage 2 then he may not be able to beat Greipel and his leadout train.
 
Jun 7, 2010
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I'll go with sagan! i'm sure he can beat top sprinters...he is so enjoyable to watch and you can't support against talents!
 
Feb 20, 2010
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Obviously I know they're hamstrung by who pays to be the stage towns, but it always strikes me as a bit of a waste when they ride along the coast, promising potential echelon action if the weather plays ball, then turn inland long before the finish.

The wind could still be a factor tomorrow though.
 
May 19, 2011
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Froome19 said:
Greipel for the win imo on this stage

As good as Greipel is, and despite the fact that he's got the best train in the Tour, and despite the fact that Cav has or wants no train, and despite the fact that Cav may have lost some top end speed, Cav is still the favourite. No point saying otherwise.
 
Dec 30, 2011
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Morbius said:
alternative view: He did his usual poor job on the first sprint stage, and still won

Generally the poor job is due to positioning which he got right this year
 
Mar 11, 2009
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Yeah, 5.1% is the max gradient of the climb. The rest is between 3-5%.
Since it's 10kms from the finish, it will be the lone, mad frenchman (cue Jeremey Roy or suchlike) attack off the front, swallowed up by the Orica/Lotto massed trains.

A nifty crosswind is possible when they turn inland. Nice.
 
Sep 9, 2009
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Froome19 said:
He was at his limit when he narrowly beat Greiepel today, he was easily faster than all the other sprinters last year (stage 3 isnt counted) besides for the Stage 10 against Greipel it shows the expected decline in pace and if he doesnt find himself in the supreme positioning of Stage 2 then he may not be able to beat Greipel and his leadout train.

Or it shows that when you are 20m behind someone with 700m to go and catch them up by 400m to go when the whole peloton is going at max speed, it takes it out of you relative to the guy who did not change position.

That he still beat him after that shows that on a straight comparison he's still considerably better.

Of course, his leadout situation could be even worse tomorrow.
 
Dec 30, 2011
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King Of The Wolds said:
As good as Greipel is, and despite the fact that he's got the best train in the Tour, and despite the fact that Cav has or wants no train, and despite the fact that Cav may have lost some top end speed, Cav is still the favourite. No point saying otherwise.

Cav is indeed still the favourite but I dont think he will win..
 
Dec 30, 2011
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Waterloo Sunrise said:
Or it shows that when you are 20m behind someone with 700m to go and catch them up by 400m to go when the whole peloton is going at max speed, it takes it out of you relative to the guy who did not change position.

That he still beat him after that shows that on a straight comparison he's still considerably better.

Of course, his leadout situation could be even worse tomorrow.

You have mentioned this already and indeed you may possibly be right.. we will see tomorow.