2012 Tour de France: Stage 4: Abbeville → Rouen (214.5km)

[Geraint Too Fast]

The 2nd mass sprint of the Tour de France 2012.

Weather Forecast - Fécamp

Favourite - Cavendish. The challengers - Greipel, Goss, Sagan, Petacchi, Van Hummel, Renshaw, Haedo, Hutarovich, Kittel/Veelers, Farrar, Freire...

 

[Bala Verde]

Rain, T-storms and wind coming from the southwest...headwind/side wind.

Could be fun if the wind is strong enough.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Cav first, hopefully.

Sagan about 7th, hopefully.

 

[will10]

The only sure thing is that Morkov will be in the break.

 

[Lance Armstrong]

What about that bump right before the finish? Looks something like 2km @ 4% to me.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

What about that bump right before the finish? Looks something like 2km @ 4% to me.

Based on what they categorised in the rest of the stage, it can't be much.

Someone will try to go away, and Orica Lotto will pull them back.

Kittel will likely get dropped there.

 

[Bala Verde]

What about that bump right before the finish? Looks something like 2km @ 4% to me.

I think they still have 4K to go after the bump. I am guessing that if the sprinters are in it for the win, they'll be able to hang on and power over it, catching a break or consolidating the sprint prep.

The only other thing that could have major implications, besides maybe the weather, is the last 1K or so which seems to involve a nasty right left combination over bridge (crossing the seine?)

"""""""""|_____

 

[l.Harm]

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

What do the numbers below that mean - the 59m makes no sense with that distance and gradient - and the profile itself does not show that gradient for that distance.

 

[l.Harm]

59m is the elevation at the selected point (white vertical stripe). I exactly copied the route, so.

 

[DominicDecoco]

The only sure thing is that Morkov will be in the break.

Actually, the only sure thing is that he won't

 

[taiwan]

Yeah I think maybe that's the max. gradient, it's location and it's elevation - in the order loc, ele, gra.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

I am going for that outsider guy. WHat is he called again... Cavendish?

 

[Froome19]

I am going for that outsider guy. WHat is he called again... Cavendish?

He was at his limit when he narrowly beat Greiepel today, he was easily faster than all the other sprinters last year (stage 3 isnt counted) besides for the Stage 10 against Greipel it shows the expected decline in pace and if he doesnt find himself in the supreme positioning of Stage 2 then he may not be able to beat Greipel and his leadout train.

 

[Froome19]

Greipel for the win imo on this stage

 

[Morbius]

He was at his limit when he narrowly beat Greiepel today

alternative view: He did his usual poor job on the first sprint stage, and still won

 

[dabaideschbi]

I'll go with sagan! i'm sure he can beat top sprinters...he is so enjoyable to watch and you can't support against talents!

 

[phanatic]

Any chance for echelons along the coast there?

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Obviously I know they're hamstrung by who pays to be the stage towns, but it always strikes me as a bit of a waste when they ride along the coast, promising potential echelon action if the weather plays ball, then turn inland long before the finish.

The wind could still be a factor tomorrow though.

 

[King Of The Wolds]

Greipel for the win imo on this stage

As good as Greipel is, and despite the fact that he's got the best train in the Tour, and despite the fact that Cav has or wants no train, and despite the fact that Cav may have lost some top end speed, Cav is still the favourite. No point saying otherwise.

 

[Froome19]

alternative view: He did his usual poor job on the first sprint stage, and still won

Generally the poor job is due to positioning which he got right this year

 

[Mellow Velo]

Yeah, 5.1% is the max gradient of the climb. The rest is between 3-5%.
Since it's 10kms from the finish, it will be the lone, mad frenchman (cue Jeremey Roy or suchlike) attack off the front, swallowed up by the Orica/Lotto massed trains.

A nifty crosswind is possible when they turn inland. Nice.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

He was at his limit when he narrowly beat Greiepel today, he was easily faster than all the other sprinters last year (stage 3 isnt counted) besides for the Stage 10 against Greipel it shows the expected decline in pace and if he doesnt find himself in the supreme positioning of Stage 2 then he may not be able to beat Greipel and his leadout train.

Or it shows that when you are 20m behind someone with 700m to go and catch them up by 400m to go when the whole peloton is going at max speed, it takes it out of you relative to the guy who did not change position.

That he still beat him after that shows that on a straight comparison he's still considerably better.

Of course, his leadout situation could be even worse tomorrow.

 

[Froome19]

As good as Greipel is, and despite the fact that he's got the best train in the Tour, and despite the fact that Cav has or wants no train, and despite the fact that Cav may have lost some top end speed, Cav is still the favourite. No point saying otherwise.

Cav is indeed still the favourite but I dont think he will win..

 

[Froome19]

Or it shows that when you are 20m behind someone with 700m to go and catch them up by 400m to go when the whole peloton is going at max speed, it takes it out of you relative to the guy who did not change position.

That he still beat him after that shows that on a straight comparison he's still considerably better.

Of course, his leadout situation could be even worse tomorrow.

You have mentioned this already and indeed you may possibly be right.. we will see tomorow.