2012 Tour Down Under Stage 6: Adelaide Street Circuit, 90km, 2.WT

[auscyclefan94]

2012 Tour Down Under Stage 6: Adelaide Street Circuit, 90km, 2.WT

18 laps of the 5 km circuit.

Start Time: 1.10pm (3:10am CET)(King William Road, Elder Park)

ŠKODA King of the Mountain: Montefiore Hill
Jayco Sprint Locations: King William Road

Finish Time: 3.15pm* approximately

General Classification

1 Simon Gerrans (Aus) GreenEDGE 18:49:24
2 Alejandro Valverde (Spa) Movistar
3 Tiago Machado (Por) RadioShack-Nissan 0:00:08
4 Michael Rogers (Aus) Sky Procycling 0:00:14
5 Rohan Dennis (Aus) UNI SA - Australia
6 Edvald Boasson Hagen (Nor) Sky Procycling 0:00:18
7 Jan Bakelants (Bel) RadioShack-Nissan 0:00:19
8 Javier Moreno (Spa) Movistar 0:00:23
9 Michael Matthews (Aus) Rabobank 0:00:29
10 Eduard Vorganov (Rus) Katusha 0:00:32

 

[maxmartin]

in what condition can Valverde win?

 

[will10]

How many intermediate sprints are there?

 

[Spider1964]

How many intermediate sprints are there?

2 sprints
2 "hill climbs"... Don't shoot me down!!!

 

[will10]

I'll go for Gerrans then.

 

[iZnoGouD]

Machado breaks away for the win!

 

[canyonball]

Machado breaks away for the win!

Serious post or not, you can bet Machado will breakaway on the last few laps

Gerrans will take this. Valverde already proved his point anyway.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

I wonder who the highest placed rider GreenEdge would let get into an early break would be?

I recall Wes Sulz. starting a minute down but getting in a break and being virtual leader during stage 6 a couple of years back.

 

[PCutter]

in what condition can Valverde win?

Its very difficult to see how Piti wins, usually this course will see a few break aways who will eat up the intermediate sprint - the break will no doubt include a GE rider to help keep it away. Then for the final sprint the real sprinters - Andre et al - eat up all the bonus seconds. Piti may be a good uphill sprinter, but this is basically a crit. If Piti actually comes up against Gerro for a sprint bonification , GE's sprint train is a bit better at delivering Gerro than Movistar.

But as another poster noted, Piti has already achieved what he needed to achieve in winning the 'queen stage' of the race

To your question how can he win...Movistar put their team on the front and try and keep the race together until the first bonus sprint and hope Piti outsprints Gerro. If they actually achieved this (keeping the race together), I would think GE would swamp them with their strong sprint train before the intermediate sprint, but that is the scenario I would see which he might come out with a GC win.

 

[maltiv]

Sky has won this stage for the last two years so perhaps they can go for a third? However, they will have to find a way to tame the gorilla...

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Its very difficult to see how Piti wins, usually this course will see a few break aways who will eat up the intermediate sprint - the break will no doubt include a GE rider to help keep it away. Then for the final sprint the real sprinters - Andre et al - eat up all the bonus seconds. Piti may be a good uphill sprinter, but this is basically a crit. If Piti actually comes up against Gerro for a sprint bonification , GE's sprint train is a bit better at delivering Gerro than Movistar.

But as another poster noted, Piti has already achieved what he needed to achieve in winning the 'queen stage' of the race

In Tirreno 2010 we had a similar situation with Garzelli 2 seconds down on Scarponi, but Garzelli was ahead on placements and took 2 seconds for 2 3rd places at the intermediate sprints, and won the race based on countback.

Valverde and Gerrans are tied for time, but Gerrans holds the tiebreak.

This is based on:
Stage 1: Gerrans 35th, Valverde 58th
Stage 2: Gerrans 3rd, Valverde 4th
Stage 3: Gerrans 20th, Valverde 54th
Stage 4: Gerrans 17th, Valverde 33rd
Stage 5: Gerrans 2nd, Valverde 1st

Given Valverde is 73 places down on countback, he has to take some intermediate bonuses to win the race. Movistar could well try and haul the break in like Acqua e Sapone did for Garzelli, but then Valverde has to beat Gerrans to the sprint, or at least not be beaten by 3 other riders. Normally I would back Valverde in the situation, but Gerrans did beat Valverde in the sprint in Stirling on stage 2, those bonus seconds being what have him in ochre right now. However, the intermediates here will be pancake flat, and Valverde (in normal circumstances) has the superior sprinting kick of the two. However, one of the ways Androni tried to prevent Garzelli getting that time was by sending multiple riders to sprint for the time, as they knew Garzelli would beat Scarponi in a head-to-head. Androni couldn't do that successfully, but if there's any team who is well placed to do the blanket coverage of an intermediate sprint by sending multiple sprinters to contend it it's GreenEdge.

 

[Andy99]

Sky has won this stage for the last two years so perhaps they can go for a third? However, they will have to find a way to tame the gorilla...

Should be relatively straightforward given he's no longer in the race.

 

[maltiv]

Should be relatively straightforward given he's no longer in the race.

He's not?

I mean he finished yesterday's stage.

 

[canyonball]

but Gerrans did beat Valverde in the sprint in Stirling on stage 2, those bonus seconds being what have him in ochre right now.

Valverde lost third place to Gerrans on the last strokes of that stage, because he just stopped pedalling...damn you Piti!

 

[rgmerk]

He's not?

I mean he finished yesterday's stage.

Griepel is still very much in the race. He's out of the race for the GC, but he's every chance to win another stage (and hopefully he and EBH will fight out some intermediate sprints for the points jersey and prevent Valverde from getting bonus seconds).

 

[El Pistolero]

Valverde will win the TDU, Simon Gerrans will stuff up.

 

[Andy99]

Griepel is still very much in the race. He's out of the race for the GC, but he's every chance to win another stage (and hopefully he and EBH will fight out some intermediate sprints for the points jersey and prevent Valverde from getting bonus seconds).

Ha. Sorry, my mistake. I must have misinterpreted the Cyclingnews Headline; 'Greipel eliminated as final test looms for GreenEdge on Willunga'

Didn't read the article and just took the headline at face value...!

Though in hindsight how I could have thought anyone could be eliminated in a week of sprinters stages is beyond me!

 

[maltiv]

Griepel is still very much in the race. He's out of the race for the GC, but he's every chance to win another stage (and hopefully he and EBH will fight out some intermediate sprints for the points jersey and prevent Valverde from getting bonus seconds).

I highly doubt EBH will waste energy on the intermediate sprints. If he wins both it's still not enough for the podium overall and that's all that matters. A victory on the stage would put him up to 3rd though, so that's what they're going for I guess. As for the points jersey, I doubt he cares at all. He's won like 8 points jerseys since 2009 so I don't think he cares much about getting another one as they're fairly insignificant in everything outside GT's.

 

[Richeypen]

I highly doubt EBH will waste energy on the intermediate sprints. If he wins both it's still not enough for the podium overall and that's all that matters. A victory on the stage would put him up to 3rd though, so that's what they're going for I guess. As for the points jersey, I doubt he cares at all. He's won like 8 points jerseys since 2009 so I don't think he cares much about getting another one as they're fairly insignificant in everything outside GT's.

This is a GT

 

[auscyclefan94]

Movistar concede defeat...

“In a one-on-one sprint, Alejandro would beat Gerrans, as he would beat Petacchi, Freire, Boonen etc. Probably the only one he wouldn’t beat is Cavendish. But in the middle of 130 riders, it’s mission impossible. GreenEdge has the perfect riders for criterium racing and they’re used to this kind of cycling in Australia. In Europe, we don’t have any. But that’s ok, we’re happy with what we’ve achieved" - Guttierez

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Guti is perhaps referring to an uphill sprint, or a sprint after a hilly 200km or something. Ally Vally is fast, but faster than anybody but Cavendish? Let's see those calcs. No way he's faster one-on-one than Bos.

 

[Richeypen]

Movistar concede defeat...

“In a one-on-one sprint, Alejandro would beat Gerrans, as he would beat Petacchi, Freire, Boonen etc. Probably the only one he wouldn’t beat is Cavendish. But in the middle of 130 riders, it’s mission impossible. GreenEdge has the perfect riders for criterium racing and they’re used to this kind of cycling in Australia. In Europe, we don’t have any. But that’s ok, we’re happy with what we’ve achieved" - Guttierez

Think he is just playing things down but they have to try. To not at least try when you are level on time would be even more pathetic than last years Paris Nice after the TT

 

[rgmerk]

Guti is perhaps referring to an uphill sprint, or a sprint after a hilly 200km or something. Ally Vally is fast, but faster than anybody but Cavendish? Let's see those calcs. No way he's faster one-on-one than Bos.

What's the largest bunch Valverde has won a sprint from in recent years?

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Probably 81, in stage 2 of País Vasco 2010.

 

[Fetisoff]

Gerrans, as Movistar said they're not chasing the GC on the final stage