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2012 Tour of California May 13 Stage 1: Santa Rosa - Santa Rosa 186.5 km

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AntonioRossi

Nov 14, 2009
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So here it is. The big stage race of North America. Levi starting in his home town, but stating that he will not be riding for the GC. Since this is considered the biggest stage race of America there were some critics out there who were not pleased with which (pro) continental teams were invited. Team Type 1, Competitive Cyclist (mancebo) and Jelly belly for instance were not invited.
The first stage is almost 120 miles with close to 10,000 ft of climbing. This is the first time that the stage in Santa Rosa does not end in a circuit, it is just a straight finish.

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GC favorites: Horner, Danielson, Talansky, Tejay, Gesink, Roche, Nibali, Sutherland, Duarte.
Notable sprinters: Boonen, Ciolek, Kittel, Haussler, Matthews, McEwen, Howard, Oss, Sagan, Rodriguez, Hanson

After a strong showing in the Tour of the Gila, the bontrager - livestrong team will surely animate this race alongside the other (pro) continental teams.
 
El Pistolero

El Pistolero

Jul 16, 2010
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Kittel, Boonen or Sagan.

Don't think Boonen has trained too much since his inactivity though. Sagan and Kittel will probaby be more motivated than him to win here. So I'm going with Kittel as big favorite as well. I assume those "mountains" are exaggerated and he'll have no problem surviving them? Otherwise I'm going with Sagan. Anyway looking forward to the return of Boonen and Sagan. Always interesting to see the hard man of the classics in the peloton.
 
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AntonioRossi

Nov 14, 2009
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El Pistolero said:
Kittel, Boonen or Sagan.

Don't think Boonen has trained too much since his inactivity though. Sagan and Kittel will probaby be more motivated than him to win here. So I'm going with Kittel as big favorite as well. I assume those "mountains" are exaggerated and he'll have no problem surviving them? Otherwise I'm going with Sagan. Anyway looking forward to the return of Boonen and Sagan. Always interesting to see the hard man of the classics in the peloton.
Click to expand...

Yeah the highest point in stage 1 is about 450 meters
 
El Pistolero

El Pistolero

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gooner said:
Just reading procycling magazine and it says Coleman Valley(last categorised climb) is short and has steep sections and has been used before in the race but it has yet to produce a split which survived to the finish.

If there was splits though then Boonen and Sagan would be favourites.
Click to expand...

AntonioRossi said:
Yeah the highest point in stage 1 is about 450 meters
Click to expand...

Thanks, will probably be Kittel then.
 
Don Johnson

Don Johnson

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May 3, 2012
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El Pistolero said:
Kittel, Boonen or Sagan.

Don't think Boonen has trained too much since his inactivity though. Sagan and Kittel will probaby be more motivated than him to win here. So I'm going with Kittel as big favorite as well. I assume those "mountains" are exaggerated and he'll have no problem surviving them? Otherwise I'm going with Sagan. Anyway looking forward to the return of Boonen and Sagan. Always interesting to see the hard man of the classics in the peloton.
Click to expand...

Yep, 10,000 feet of climbing is pretty light and also the velvet smooth tarmac of West Sonoma County should provide a cakewalk for all the stage 1 participants.
Really hard to figure why the Astana team, AG2r,Radioshack, and BMC have had training camps in Sonoma County. Flat bland roads, no wonder "flatlanders" like Evans and Leipheimer train there. They must be lazy.
 
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karlboss

Mar 13, 2009
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Nice route detail by strava.

The most decisive point is 2.6km at 9.5% 30km from the finish. This won't be decisive for GC and is dangerous enough for the GC teams to control a break and bring it together for a sprint. If some of the continental teams go for broke for a stage win, it might be tough enough to put Kittel out the back.

Sagan for the win.

I like the design of the stage, but the context I fear will make it a little dull.
 
Don Johnson

Don Johnson

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karlboss said:
Nice route detail by strava.

The most decisive point is 2.6km at 9.5% 30km from the finish. This won't be decisive for GC and is dangerous enough for the GC teams to control a break and bring it together for a sprint. If some of the continental teams go for broke for a stage win, it might be tough enough to put Kittel out the back.

Sagan for the win.

I like the design of the stage, but the context I fear will make it a little dull.
Click to expand...

Coleman Valley is only a couple miles of 13 percent, a bump.

Pretty much fast downhill with a few bumps on the way into Santa Rosa. Plehty of room for a re-grouping and bunch sprint.
 
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greenedge

Mar 27, 2011
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I will go with Boonen, then Sagan and Haussler.

I think Boonen has a very strong team here and he has already won quite a few sprints this year so that's why i am picking him.

I will make a bold prediction and state Kittel will not make it to the finish, with the main group.
 
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GIBO SIMONI

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El Pistolero said:
Kittel, Boonen or Sagan.

Don't think Boonen has trained too much since his inactivity though. Sagan and Kittel will probaby be more motivated than him to win here. So I'm going with Kittel as big favorite as well. I assume those "mountains" are exaggerated and he'll have no problem surviving them? Otherwise I'm going with Sagan. Anyway looking forward to the return of Boonen and Sagan. Always interesting to see the hard man of the classics in the peloton.
Click to expand...

what a suprise m8 a belgian makes a sprint stage interesting you're just a cav hater must be tough tho seeing as gilbert failed and all year you said he'd be ready but you had tom to fall back on well guess what fab would of smoked him
 
El Pistolero

El Pistolero

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karlboss said:
Nice route detail by strava.

The most decisive point is 2.6km at 9.5% 30km from the finish. This won't be decisive for GC and is dangerous enough for the GC teams to control a break and bring it together for a sprint. If some of the continental teams go for broke for a stage win, it might be tough enough to put Kittel out the back.

Sagan for the win.

I like the design of the stage, but the context I fear will make it a little dull.
Click to expand...

If Liquigas drill it hard with the intention of dropping the faster sprinters this stage could indeed be for him. Hopefully the sprinters will get dropped, always good to see them suffer. :D
 
BillytheKid

BillytheKid

Jun 1, 2011
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Chris Horner with some comments that predict a watchful race among the GC until Mt. Baldy and the TT albeit he notes that the none WT staus and smaller field can change the dynamic of the racing....easier to get dropped and not regain the field for some sprinters...

http://www.steephill.tv/players/720...ia&id=Chris-Horner-discusses-early-st&yr=2012

Coleman road is at 10% and although it's 20K out, only about half of that is flat but there is real estate that could aid a splintered field.

This may not go to a the sprinters becasue they may have to chase, but that would depend on the strenth of an attack on Coleman. There's also room for a strong break, but I am probably California Dream'in.
 
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