The Hitch said:
You and others talk about anti doping as if there was only 1 side in this battle. As if the technology methods and products in doping were stagnant, a fixed point, which anti doping year by year moves towards and will eventually reach.
What yall totally overlook is what Hamilton i think it was called the arms race.
I certainly don't think that. I'm a PhD analytical chemist who has done research in pharmaceutical development.
With all due respect to Hamilton, he knows sod all about the pharmaceutical industry. He knows a lot about a tiny, peripherally related area, but expanding that to the industry would be wrong.
The reality is that there is also a doping organization, so to speak, a very well funded one (considering how much money there is in pro sports) which seeks to stay ahead of anti doping, by creating new drugs, methods and technology, and new ways to evade the testers.
So the strenght of anti doping matters now compared to a few years ago, which is what you and others are focusing on, matters very little.
I'm sorry, in terms of creating new drugs I'm calling BS. How much money do you think there is in sport? Because it costs approximately £800M to bring a new drug to market. That's one drug. No drugs are designed for athletes.
in terms of evading the testers there seems to be a couple of choices. Firstly, If you want to set up a lab to determine detectable levels of particular drugs in your system you'll need about £500,000 for instrumentation, for example an Exactive Mass Spectrometer, which I believe was the main instrument used during London 2012. Those ones are now in Ian Wilson and Jeremy Nicholsons lab at Imperial College London. You then need about £200,000 a year to staff the lab and hire experts and about £50,000 to run it. You could farm it out, but ethics requirements will state any athlete involved in testing doping products, and there are some in studies although obviously not top level guys, must not compete, so you'd struggle to find a lab willing to risk it. Enough guys using the same lab can fund it, but they will invariably get found out.
You could go the pharmacokinetics route which is much less expensive but is less accurate so more risky and they already do this anyway.
otherwise you just dope and miss 2 OOC tests then stop, but again, I'm sure they do this anyway.
I'm sure they are coming up with new methods, but short of making sure the levels are undetectable there seems to be little more that they can do that isn't done already such as surfactant on hands, catheterise yourself for urine replacement or using masking agents and hope you get lucky.
EPO was so good because it was endogenous so it was extremely difficult to determine doping levels. Most drugs are not like this, but some are.
take the example of the recent GW compound. There is already a method in place to detect it because these methods are developed in the pre-clinical trial phase using spiked plasma. I know, I've done it for a few studies on already licensed drugs.
What actually matters is the position of anti doping vs doping.
And neither you nor I know where that relationship stands. Maybe anti doping has closed the gap. Maybe it hasnt. But we dont know so we really cannot jump to conclusions about anti doping being particularly more efficient now. There is no evidence either way.
I'm probably in a unique position on this forum in that I have met, professionally, two members of European WADA boards, most notably the one time head of the laboratory standards board. The gap is shortening. There will always be a gap and people will always slip through but new methods are making it much harder to get away with.
Pinotti also speaks out against dopers. Hes not very young.
Kittel spoke out against Contador and after the fact against Lance. Thats 1 youngish rider. Hardly representative of the whole generation. Moreover Kittel accused Mustafa Sayer of doping and Mr Sayer has not yet failed a test.
Anyway, the youth always gets branded as the source of a new era. Not just in cycling and doping (though its hardly the first time) but pretty much all walks of life. And usually as in this case with absolutely no basis.
It never really works out, and it contradicts with other assumptions made about young people. For example it is said that older riders are less likely to take risks on descents because they have kids to think about.
Yet here this logic is 180 degrees flipped and now argued that older riders are more likely to take risks with their health by doping. Also people under 25 are less likely to have a strong moral code- what is allegedly behind this change of opinion about doping.
The idea that the sport is cleaner because anti doping is more efficient. That makes sense. I think there is a lot left to argue, and its not so black and white, but i can understand why that might happen.
The idea however that a new generation will have different midsets to a previous one and that this will have a major impact on anti doping is naive and utopianistic. Sounds beatiful but in reality, the nature of athletes under 25 is that if you offered them a means to dope succesfuly, the same % would say now as did 10 years ago.
It's not just Kittel, but other names have slipped my mind. Can't argue this point though as it's both our opinions without any solid evidence on either side. You say I'm being naive, I say you're unfairly tarring the new generation with the same brush.
the last point though, offering them the means to dope successfully isn't a fair point. If you guarantee it people who may not consider it previously might now, it's a loaded argument.