2013 Giro d'Italia, stage 16: Valloire - Ivrea (238 km)

[Afrank]

Might as well make a stage 16 thread so we have something to discuss in the rest day.

Technical overview:
This is perhaps the most underrated stage of the Giro. One of the few (if not "the only") hilly stages in which GC riders can definitely battle it out. 238 kms starting with the descent of Telegraphe and a long drag all the way to the top of Mont Cenis, then, after the descent, almost 120 kms of flat. Finally, after a first passage through Ivrea, the road goes up towards the climb of Andrate (6.4 kms at 8.4%) which isn't exactly easy, as you can see by the profile of the final kms. The descent is quite fast and technical, and after that there will be 8 flat kms (the original stage had a more irregular false flat and a shorter descent). This stage is a perfect trap: long stage, straight after the rest day, climb not long but steep enough, descent.


What to expect:
As I said, I have high expectation for this. In any case, a break could win it but GC riders will definitely do something, whether for the time bonuses or not.

Credit to Eshnar for the stage preview.

Edit: Some better profiles from RCS.

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[whittashau]

I feel Nibali would have attacked here if he didn't have a decent lead, but he wont given the situation and given that Cadel sits in 2nd place and is the next best descender among GC riders. And Cadel won't attack on the climb because he knows even if he drops nibbles that he'd get back on the descent. So I feel because the top two guys are the two best descenders among the top GC guys that this could end up being a little anti-climatic. However, given that the stage after is rather easy maybe we could be in for a surprise

 

[saneguy]

Might see a mini-bunch sprint on this one. If some of the sprinters can manage to get over the last climb. Nibali should be pretty confident about this stage given the descent at the end.

Whats the weather expected today?

 

[SafeBet]

I feel Nibali would have attacked here if he didn't have a decent lead, but he wont given the situation and given that Cadel sits in 2nd place and is the next best descender among GC riders. And Cadel won't attack on the climb because he knows even if he drops nibbles that he'd get back on the descent. So I feel because the top two guys are the two best descenders among the top GC guys that this could end up being a little anti-climatic. However, given that the stage after is rather easy maybe we could be in for a surprise

I reckon cadel will have a go here.

 

[Panda Claws]

Cadel is a very good descender himself, I can imagine him staying away from Nibali if he gets a good enough gap on the top.

 

[Fearless Greg Lemond]

If this is the correct profile:

then there will some action. Descent looks not to technical given the profile from the OP.

 

[ILovecycling]

Good stage for a breakaway,anyway there could be gc battle if the tempo is high enough,but imo 8 km of flat in the final is too much for GC attackers...
Maybe Betancur will have a go

 

[Red Rick]

Cadel might have a go here, cause if he cracked himself, he could come back on the descent. I've seen nothing pointing at Evans dropping Nibali however

 

[Eshnar]

Given the GC situation I reckon only 2nd tiers will try an attack, like yesterday.
But almost surely breakaway ftw.
Unless Lotto need more money that is.

 

[jens_attacks]

expect here more action than in the last two MTF's by far...
di luca or betancur ftw

if it's wet it's bad just saw there are cobbles on the descent...

 

[markene2]

Di Luca will win this. He has been good so far.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Looking forward to this stage.
Lets get one helluva break going early to put some pressure on Astana.

Many of these please:

15 PELLIZOTTI Franco ITA AND 62:10:49 8:15
16 HENAO MONTOYA Sergio Luis COL SKY 62:10:50 8:16
17 SANCHEZ GONZALEZ Samuel ESP EUS 62:11:10 8:36
18 CARUSO Damiano ITA CAN 62:12:31 9:57
19 KELDERMAN Wilco NED BLA 62:16:03 13:29
20 DI LUCA Danilo ITA VIN 62:17:18 14:44
21 PETROV Evgeni RUS TST 62:18:50 16:16
22 ATAPUMA HURTADO Darwin COL COL 62:19:29 16:55
23 DE GREEF Francis BEL LTB 62:21:11 18:37
24 SERPA PEREZ Jose Rodolfo COL LAM 62:24:43 22:09
25 MOUREY Francis FRA FDJ 62:26:36 24:02
26 MARTINEZ DE ESTEBAN Egoi ESP EUS 62:27:03 24:29
27 KRUIJSWIJK Steven NED BLA 62:27:10 24:36
28 VALLS FERRI Rafael ESP VCD 62:32:24 29:50
29 ROSA Diego ITA AND 62:33:19 30:45
30 HERRADA LOPEZ Jose' ESP MOV 62:36:08 33:34
31 DUARTE AREVALO Fabio Andres COL COL 62:36:29 33:55

 

[eljimberino]

Di Luca will win this. He has been good so far.

When exactly?

 

[Netserk]

When exactly?

Everywhere

_O_

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

DiLuca will go. Sky will send Henao with him. Pirazzi will go too.

 

[whittashau]

When exactly?

On the last two MTFs where he finished only a few minutes down on the main GC guys?

 

[Panda Claws]

Looking forward to this stage.
Lets get one helluva break going early to put some pressure on Astana.

Many of these please:

15 PELLIZOTTI Franco ITA AND 62:10:49 8:15
16 HENAO MONTOYA Sergio Luis COL SKY 62:10:50 8:16
17 SANCHEZ GONZALEZ Samuel ESP EUS 62:11:10 8:36
18 CARUSO Damiano ITA CAN 62:12:31 9:57
19 KELDERMAN Wilco NED BLA 62:16:03 13:29
20 DI LUCA Danilo ITA VIN 62:17:18 14:44
21 PETROV Evgeni RUS TST 62:18:50 16:16
22 ATAPUMA HURTADO Darwin COL COL 62:19:29 16:55
23 DE GREEF Francis BEL LTB 62:21:11 18:37
24 SERPA PEREZ Jose Rodolfo COL LAM 62:24:43 22:09
25 MOUREY Francis FRA FDJ 62:26:36 24:02
26 MARTINEZ DE ESTEBAN Egoi ESP EUS 62:27:03 24:29
27 KRUIJSWIJK Steven NED BLA 62:27:10 24:36
28 VALLS FERRI Rafael ESP VCD 62:32:24 29:50
29 ROSA Diego ITA AND 62:33:19 30:45
30 HERRADA LOPEZ Jose' ESP MOV 62:36:08 33:34
31 DUARTE AREVALO Fabio Andres COL COL 62:36:29 33:55

Hell yeah!

 

[Merckx index]

I agree with the others saying this is a good place for Cadel to try to pick up some time. That last climb, fairly short and reasonably steep looks made for him, and if he can catch or go with another rider or several on a breakaway (DD?) they could work together to the finish. Even if he can't get some seconds back on Nibs, he might consolidate his second place, or even his podium place, which really isn't at all secure at this point. So definitely something to gain and not a lot of risk.

Interesting that this stage and the following one on Wed. end in virtually identical fashion, with a 5-6 km, fairly steep climb followed by about 10 kms of descent and another 10 kms of flat finish. So Evans might have a go on either one of these stages or both.

 

[manafana]

Evans doesnt do those low percentage attacks, hes not going risk expending that much energy for small time gains.

I see a few of non contenders getting job done

 

[taiwan]

Betancur to attack yet again and wake the top 5 up a bit.

 

[will10]

I just don't think we're going to see much in terms of GC.

Usual suspects for the stage win, Rubiano, Rabottini, Di Luca, Felline, Garzelli, Voeckler, Virenque, Durand...

 

[Orbit501]

Visconti taking big KOM points yesterday now adds some real spice to that cat 1 tomorrow. Will he try to gap Pirazzi on the early descent, get in the break and nick the early big points I wonder?, or will a break already be away and both save themselves for a KOM battle on Friday & Saturday?

 

[Orbit501]

I just don't think we're going to see much in terms of GC.

Usual suspects for the stage win, Rubiano, Rabottini, Di Luca, Felline, Garzelli, Voeckler, Virenque, Durand...

Aren't you forgetting Sir Thomas of De Gendt?

 

[hfer07]

Betancur to attack yet again and wake the top 5 up a bit.

this.
My man Bananito will do a massive attack on the last Km of the climb, just be captured by the 200 meter finish line mark

It could well be Di Luca's lucky day..... just a thought

 

[Lil_Tommy_V]

Egoi Martinez!