2013 Giro d'Italia, stage 18: Mori - La Polsa 20.6k

[Red Rick]

Technical overview:
An unusual MTT for the Giro. The climb of La Polsa is long and fairly gentle, with two stretches at over 6% and a more irregular and easy sector in the middle. A MTT of pure power.

What to expect:
This could provide big gaps among the favorites... Wiggins FTW

Il CaNibali will take this one down

 

[Netserk]

Evans to podium.
Garzelli to top-10.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Be careful out there Evans:

 

[nesocip]

I predict a Cuddles win (that will change pretty much nothing in terms of GC) and small differences. Top 10 within 1:30, top 20 within 2:30

 

[il_cobra]

d-day comes. with 2 dolomiti stages almost neutralised due to route change i think all will decides there.
niemiec for the podium, gogogo

 

[LaFlorecita]

Majka will win

No it will probably be Nibali

I'm hoping for a surprise winner though

 

[whittashau]

This could very well end up being the last good chance for any change in GC depending on what happens with the weather in coming days. I expect we'll see decent time gaps here, but I can't imagine any of the main GC guys to be separated by more than two minutes. I expect this to be a two way battle between Nibali and Evans. I think Scarponi will get third.

 

[Netserk]

Majka to finish 8-12th

 

[Geraint Too Fast]

Nibali, comfortably.

 

[Miburo]

The best thing for the giro to right now happen is that nibali loses 2 minutes.

For the excitement of the race guys like nibali should never be in the lead

Anyway back to reality, nibali wins this.

 

[Netserk]

The best thing for the giro to right now happen is that nibali loses 2 minutes.

For the excitement of the race guys like nibali should never be in the lead

Anyway back to reality, nibali wins this.

What the race really need is for the other riders to grow a pair matching Nibali's

 

[LaFlorecita]

What the race really need is for the other riders to grow a pair matching Nibali's

Maybe they want to attack but are not strong enough

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Giro '11 MTT (stage 16):

Result:

1 Alberto Contador (Saxo Bank-SunGard) 20:55
2 Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas-Cannondale) + 0:34
3 Michele Scarponi (Lampre-ISD) + 0:38
4 José Rujano (Androni) + 0:39
5 Stefano Garzelli (Acqua&Sapone) + 0:51
6 Roman Kreuziger (Astana) + 0:49
7 Denis Menchov (Geox-TMC) + 0:52
8 Marco Pinotti (HTC-Highroad) + 0:58
9 Branislau Samoilau (Movistar Team) + 0:59
10 Vladimir Miholjevic (Acqua&Sapone) + 1:04

Perhaps a marker.

 

[LaFlorecita]

The best thing for the giro to right now happen is that nibali loses 2 minutes.

For the excitement of the race guys like nibali should never be in the lead

Anyway back to reality, nibali wins this.

Agreed but let's be honest we don't care about the excitement of a race when Alberto leads so we are hypocrites.

 

[Miburo]

Agreed but let's be honest we don't care about the excitement of a race when Alberto leads so we are hypocrites.

Yea of course. I know that, as a fan you want your guy to win. But even then for example the tour of 2009 was really lame and even though Contador won i was pretty disappointed.

On the other side the tour of 2011 was way better and Contador didn't win. I really enjoyed that tour, well at least the last 5 days .

I think the nibali fans are happy with the result obviously but at the same time they want some more excitement in this giro. Maybe even praying for an attack of Evans so Nibali can do something more than waiting.

 

[SafeBet]

Evans looked uber strong in the final climb during the ITT. Maybe that doesn't tell much about this MTT, but I'm expecting a tight battle between him and Nibbles. No big gaps between the main contenders.

 

[infeXio]

Kangert!...

 

[hfer07]

As Nibali himself stated it: He could have been more concerned about Evans had the course been flat. I see Nibali claiming the stage win & wrapping up the Giro title.

If Nibbs won't win the stage-I'm putting my men Betancur & Henao to get the honors

Ps: What's up with Pozzo BTW??

 

[The Hitch]

A mtt is the race most likely to be won by the favourite, since wind and corner taking become a lot less important, and those are 2 major variables in time trials that can cause a favourite to lose.

There is also a far clearer picture of who has form or who doesn't than when Martin and Cancellara for eg are soft pedalling the race waiting for a tt on stage 19 or something.


So therefore id say chances Nibali wins are probably 95%. 5% is Evans has been hiding something or someone pulls a Garzelli.

 

[theyoungest]

Nibali FTW. He has done practically zilch for a few stages now, should be nice and recovered for this one.

 

[Afrank]

Nibali to take the first of his 3 stage wins in a row.

 

[all_in]

Evans is very strong in MTT's.I think he can beat Nibali.Uran will also do very good.

 

[Red Rick]

For reference, the only mtt that was similar like this (but harder) in recent memory: Klausenpass TT

Results

1 Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Liquigas 1.00.22.82 (24,848 km/h)
2 José Rujano Guillen (Ven) Caisse d'Epargne 0.15.73
3 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Astana 0.17.25
4 Damiano Cunego (Ita) Lampre 0.53.29
5 Frank Schleck (Lux) Team CSC 1.26.20
6 Jens Voigt (Ger) Team CSC 1.34.96
7 Igor Anton Hernandez (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi 1.48.46
8 Thomas Lövkvist (Swe) Team High Road 2.08.06
9 Andy Schleck (Lux) Team CSC 2.19.53
10 Laurens Ten Dam (Ned) Rabobank 2.49.74
11 Christian Knees (Ger) Team Milram 2.59.66
12 Johann Tschopp (Swi) Bouygues Telecom 3.20.37
13 Pietro Caucchioli (Ita) Crédit Agricole 3.21.92
14 Steve Morabito (Swi) Astana 3.23.71
15 Kim Kirchen (Lux) Team High Road 3.24.90
16 Markus Fothen (Ger) Gerolsteiner 3.29.12
17 Michael Albasini (Swi) Liquigas 3.34.43
18 Volodymir Gustov (Ukr) Team CSC 3.47.88
19 Rubens Bertogliati (Swi) Saunier Duval - Scott 3.49.31
20 Jesus Del Nero Montes (Spa) Saunier Duval - Scott 3.58.25

Bit time gaps

 

[Dazed and Confused]

For reference, the only mtt that was similar like this (but harder) in recent memory: Klausenpass TT

Profile:

 

[Red Rick]

Thanks, I was a bit lazy