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2014 TDF Stage 19: Maubourguet Pays du Val d'Adour - Bergerac 208.5km

Who will win stage 19?

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Mar 14, 2009
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Stage details

Distance: 208.5km

Category: Flat

Highest point: 231m

Over 200 long, flat and probably hot kilometres away from the final mountains means that this is a transitional stage that's been nailed on for the sprinters. Or it should be. After three stages in the Pyrennees, where they'll have been battling time cuts in the autobus, it's a chance to rekindle the green jersey competition. But this late on in the race, whose powers of endurance and recovery are best? The stage is devoid of any real difficulty or traps so the GC leaders will hope an unthreatening break goes early and they can all have a breather before the sprinters' teams start winding up for the final bunch gallop into Bergerac.

The intermediate sprint on the outskirts of Tonneins, and, for the puerile-minded, a pass through the town of Condom, should be the only mid race diversions...
But hang on… It's also the last chance for the breakaway to stick, so it's reasonable to expect that all of the early adventurers who shoot up the road will be a classy group of wily, efficient riders hunting a last gasp victory before tomorrow's time trial and the glorified crit in Paris.

Verdict: a tense struggle between the race craft of the world's finest opportunists and the might of the sprinters' teams looking to score.

stage_19_profile_670.jpg
 
OPQS won't be chasing. They have their stage wins. Kwiatkowski and Martin will be saving their energy for Saturday as well as staying out of trouble considering both could finish 1st and 2nd in the time trial.

If Sagan was smart, he'd try to go in the break. Why bring it back to lose to Kristoff?

Break takes this unless Giant and Katusha really ramp it up. And why would they? They have their stage wins. Giant will be wanting to keep Dumoulin fresh as well.
 
Jun 5, 2014
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This stage: 1,3 km hill with 7,6% gradient - 13 km to go
Nancy stage: 1,3 km at 7,6 % with 5,5 km to go

In Nancy they arrived in 28, so it was pretty hard ( 1,3 km at 7-8% anywhere in the last 15-20 km is pretty hard for the sprinters.
Kristoff was the first dropped rider 14 seconds back. This time the sprinters have more time to reorganise. Kristoff is in better shape now. He can win this.
Kittel will be dropped. Giant will go with Degenkolb who could surviven or make it back. Trentin and Sagan also have a good shot.

If Kristoff is in the group he should be the strongest. Degenkolb should be almost as fast as him but could suffer more on the climb. Sagan I don't see him winning unless all 3 are not in the group. Or 2 don't make it and the remaining opponent gets boxed etc.
Trentin rode a 300 m sprint at Nancy, way too early but held off Sagan. Don't underestimate him and the power of Tony Martin.
OPQS will attack with Martin and a decimated field has to bring him back. Not easy.
 
Nov 26, 2012
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this looks like Trentin territory. OPQS will fight in the stage. they might not chase, but they will control the stage in the last part of race. i have never heard of panzer resting prior to an ITT. he might even attack in the last part of race to do some ITT practice:rolleyes:



Sagan as usual to end up 2nd ;)
 
I think enough of the sprinters' teams will be interested in controlling this. The finish looks too hard for Kittel, but not for the others. I'll go for Kristoff.

As I'm away from tomorrow, I'll predict the last two winners now
Stage 20: Martin
Stage 21: Kittel

I can't miss out on a chance of predicting the entire last week's winners correctly :) (although, tomorrow is the day I feel least confident about).
 
Jun 25, 2013
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Cannondale and Katusha should work together on this one to set a hard pace on the final climb to put Kittel and Greipel out of position. Cannondale never survives to lead Sagan out in the final kilometer anyway, might as well put the team to good use before they get there.
 
Nov 26, 2012
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i dont see the break succeeding tomorrow. there are still too many teams who havent won a stage.

lotto would want one more win. Cannondale havent exactly won yet.
Degenkolb is yet to win. No stage win for Europcar so far. that is a rarity. none of the usual suspects actually scored for them. Sky havent managed a single success this yr.
OPQS is always hungry.

This stage will be really interesting to watch, esp the later part of it.
 
murali said:
i dont see the break succeeding tomorrow. there are still too many teams who havent won a stage.

lotto would want one more win. Cannondale havent exactly won yet.
Degenkolb is yet to win. No stage win for Europcar so far. that is a rarity. none of the usual suspects actually scored for them. Sky havent managed a single success this yr.
OPQS is always hungry.

This stage will be really interesting to watch, esp the later part of it.

That's why it won't be a sprint

Coquard won't win. Eisel won't win. Sagan will only win by attacking.

Teams will be stupid to bring this back. Their plan tomorrow should be to send riders up the road and hope a 10+ break goes. If there's enough teams represented in the break it wont' come back.
 
Feb 19, 2014
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Dont see a bunch sprint happening.Alot of tired legs in the peloton,big break full of talent takes it.

Navardauskas or Albasini ftw.
 
Jul 15, 2011
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Peter Sagan: "I still hope for a stage win"

"I went pretty well uphill today. The Astana team pulled quite hard so in the Tourmalet I looked for a small group to climb at a decent speed. In the final climb, on the other hand, I rode slowly. Starting tomorrow, I have two stages left to ride as a sprinter. I don't have the stage win I want yet. I hope for the best. Up to now, there have been other stages adapted to my characteristics and yet I didn't win. I realize that every year, the race is different at the Tour de France. Some things go well, others don't."

http://www.letour.fr/le-tour/2014/us/stage-18/news/int/peter-sagan-i-still-hope-for-a-stage-win.html
 
Aug 15, 2012
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Personally i think he has a good chance since it isnt pan flat, and he is often punchier than some of the other pure sprinters. i guess we'll find out who saved the most team and energy....