2014 Tour de France, Stage 11: Besançon - Oyonnax (187.5 km)

Sep 29, 2012
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2014 Tour de France, Stage 11: Besançon - Oyonnax (187.5 km)

Tuesday is rest day, so let's prepare the ground for Wednesday! :)
The usual stage analysis and predictions by rghysens:

rghysens said:
Stage 11: Besancon – Oyonnax: 187.5km, hilly
Overview:
This is the first of two transition stages between the Vosges and the Alps. It heads south from the town where the rest day was held for about 140km and then makes a loop of about 45km east of the finishing town. Oyonnax is a Town in the Jura, a medium mountain range on the border of France and Switzerland. It would not be very difficult to design a more mountainous stage between the same two cities (by using the Col du Berthiand and the Col du Sentier, f.e.), but with 4 decent climbs in the last 50km and some more uncategorized bumps we can’t complain.





Predictions:
The final will definitely be too hard for the pure sprinters (Cavendish, Kittel, Greipel, Demare,…) and looks tailor-made for Sagan, and to a lesser extent for Kristoff and Degenkolb. The main problem for Sagan is that we’re already halfway through, that he may have lost one or two teammates and that most teams will be reluctant to assist in the chase on a likely breakaway. So, probably one for the breakaway.
After the rest day, the final part can be tricky to ride. Definitely not worth a GC battle but well, maybe it's finally the day for Sagan :)
 
May 19, 2011
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it could be a Nibali stage, now I say a breakaway will take it, any one fancy Sagan's chance? He is free wheeling in the final climb today. LOL
 
Mar 9, 2013
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lol this say's it all about how people think of the TDF now. Ill make the 2nd comment.:)
 
Mar 19, 2009
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maxmartin said:
it could be a Nibali stage, now I say a breakaway will take it, any one fancy Sagan's chance? He is free wheeling in the final climb today. LOL
He'll find a way to not win, or riders who won't let him.
 
Nov 16, 2011
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Some no-name rider will take it in a large break. GC guys will take it easy and I think Sagan too as he's in less of a need to worry about sprint points now.
 
sagard said:
Tell Marcel to get over some bumps and we wouldn't have this problem!
Marcel is actually quite clever in not going for the green jersey which I am sure he can win. He always comes into the Sprint with freshest legs having watched his rivals already Sprint once. It could win him stages.
 
Besancon is the birth place of Gribaldy aka le vicomte ... for those who might be newish to cycling he was the one who discovered Sean Kelly and JoaquiM Agostinho.

Anyone knows whether this the first time that Oyannax feature in the tdf?
 
I think it could be more exciting than stage 10. Yea, I know the bar is pretty low.

Once again I must praise ASO about the parcours this year. Nothing wrong with the design today. Gives almost everybody a chance to make a race.

Can Garmin pull themselves together and get going here? What about Tinkoff's trio (Rogers, Roche and Majka)? They have nothing to lose, why not start the party on Cote de Rugua? Others will follow I'm sure. Hell Sky looks perfect for an attack. Vasil, Thomas, Nieve and Porte could do some damage if Tinkoff/Garmin starts the action relatively early. But some of this requires a favorable break.

Anyway as a minimum we will see an aggressive Cannondale and Sagan at the business end.

Descent action is my favorite in the "mountains".

Looking forward to it.
 
Sep 16, 2009
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Purito may as well go for the break. He is a legit chance to win by breaking away on the final climb and descending to victory.
 
Apr 15, 2013
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It should be a Sagan stage, but his team is too weak to rein in all the attackers, because there will be plenty ! Nibali has it under control so the Astanas would be happy to let a big breakaway go.

My bet is that Cannondale takes the day of and focuses on the next stage : less demanding transition stage where they could more easily controle a breakaway, and might get support from teams like Orica for Albasini.
 
Apr 15, 2013
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Dazed and Confused said:
I think it could be more exciting than stage 10. Yea, I know the bar is pretty low.

Once again I must praise ASO about the parcours this year. Nothing wrong with the design today. Gives almost everybody a chance to make a race.

Can Garmin pull themselves together and get going here? What about Tinkoff's trio (Rogers, Roche and Majka)? They have nothing to lose, why not start the party on Cote de Rugua? Others will follow I'm sure. Hell Sky looks perfect for an attack. Vasil, Thomas, Nieve and Porte could do some damage if Tinkoff/Garmin starts the action relatively early. But some of this requires a favorable break.

Anyway as a minimum we will see an aggressive Cannondale and Sagan at the business end.

Descent action is my favorite in the "mountains".

Looking forward to it.
agreed. This is the perfect stage for offensives strategies combining early breakaway and leaders. why ? Because it comes after rest day, because there are already som big time gaps and some leaders are in the doodoo (Talansky...), and because this course is demanding but not too much : the last 60ks never stop going up and down, but the gradients are mainly around 5% : draft plays a major role and gregarii can be critical because they can pul for 5/10ks whereas on real climbs they are of hardly any help to a leader.

Probably won't happen, but the worst scenario for Astana is a breakaway with the usual attackers (Chavanel, Voeckler, Cancellara, the orphaned Saxo boys,etc...) + quite a few leader's teammates (some skys, some Garmins, some Movistar) + some in between GC riders who have already lost time and don't seem that dangerous, but that you can't just let go (Geraint Thomas, Ten Dam, Konig)... Put all this together in a group of 25 riders.. Have them have 4/5 minutes at the 55ks to the end mark.... AND... watch Porte or Valverde attack sometime near the 40 to 30 ks mark... AND have Sagan go with them... Nightmare scenario for Nibali.

Won't happen of course, but this is the type of stage that can tire out the leader's team because it has to be kept under controle. Ideal for them is if a breakaway like on stage 8 goes.... pfiooo, sigh of relief, no GC relevant rider or teammate in there... but my bet is on a breakaway more akin to stage 9.
 
Jun 19, 2013
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A long lazy day for the opportunist, expect to see the usual suspects strut their stuff. Maybe a last huzzah from Jens. Hope Voeckler remains quiet, if he attacks Katusha will chase.
 

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