2014 Vuelta al País Vasco, Stage 2: Ordizia → Dantxarinea (Urdazubi), 155.8 km

[Geraint Too Fast]

2014 Vuelta al País Vasco, Stage 2: Ordizia → Dantxarinea (Urdazubi), 155.8 km

The easiest stage of the race.

Contenders - Matthews, Swift, Ratto, Wegmann, Van der Sande, Martens/Hivert, Geschke, Gilbert...

 

[Jspear]

I wouldn't mind seeing Gilbert take the win. He has had a couple strong showings this year. Hopefully he can take his first win of the season here.

 

[Netserk]

Bling for the win.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Gerrans or Swift.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

It kind of bugs me to see Francia instead of Iparralde on the route there.

 

[skidmark]

If there's one thing I've learned from watching Pais Vasco over the years, it's that on profiles like this the answer is often 'who the hell knows'? Sure it looks 'easy' because there isn't a categorized climb in the last 50km, but there are like 6 uncategorized climbs on the profile in that space, and those have been killer in the past. Plus it looks like an uphill drag finish. Scenarios that wouldn't surprise me:

- Matthews wins a sprint from a group of 50;
- Valverde (or Kiwi, maybe) wins a sprint from a small group of favorites that drop everyone else on the unexpectedly steep final uncategorized climb;
- Contador sees a difficult section on the last 'climb', seizes the opportunity and accelerates, and gets the stage plus another 10-15 seconds;
- a small group makes it to the top of the last uncategorized climb and a reckless descender (does Samu still have it?) goes for it and gets it on an unexpectedly technical run down to the finish;

This stage seems like it could be more selective than stage 3, but who knows. The variety of climbs and opportunity for many different scenarios on each stage goes a long way towards making this my favourite weeklong race on the calendar, for sure.

 

[movingtarget]

I'm surprised that Gilbert is being considered as a winner of anything at the moment.

 

[hfer07]

Valverde needs a revenge
Gerrans, Samu, Lulu, the fat cat, Cunego among the possible winners

 

[Jspear]

If there's one thing I've learned from watching Pais Vasco over the years, it's that on profiles like this the answer is often 'who the hell knows'? Sure it looks 'easy' because there isn't a categorized climb in the last 50km, but there are like 6 uncategorized climbs on the profile in that space, and those have been killer in the past. Plus it looks like an uphill drag finish. Scenarios that wouldn't surprise me:

- Matthews wins a sprint from a group of 50;
- Valverde (or Kiwi, maybe) wins a sprint from a small group of favorites that drop everyone else on the unexpectedly steep final uncategorized climb;
- Contador sees a difficult section on the last 'climb', seizes the opportunity and accelerates, and gets the stage plus another 10-15 seconds;
- a small group makes it to the top of the last uncategorized climb and a reckless descender (does Samu still have it?) goes for it and gets it on an unexpectedly technical run down to the finish;

This stage seems like it could be more selective than stage 3, but who knows. The variety of climbs and opportunity for many different scenarios on each stage goes a long way towards making this my favourite weeklong race on the calendar, for sure.

Now that would suit me just fine.

 

[Jspear]

I'm surprised that Gilbert is being considered as a winner of anything at the moment.

I said I wouldn't mind if he won....I kinda like him, so it would be nice to see. But you're right, he may very well come home with nothing at this race. Even if he is not the top favorite, he should still be considered a candidate for victory though.

 

[Shardi]

From looking at the graph the last hill starts off with 2km at 5% then 2 more km at around 2-3%.

It will probably look abit different compared to yesterday, now that it isnt 10% anymore.

There is litterally no room between the decent and finish line so a daring descent might just win someone the game. Thinking about Samuel Sanchez here..

If no attack sticks, i guess we will see a pre-ardennes showdown.

 

[42x16ss]

If there's one thing I've learned from watching Pais Vasco over the years, it's that on profiles like this the answer is often 'who the hell knows'? Sure it looks 'easy' because there isn't a categorized climb in the last 50km, but there are like 6 uncategorized climbs on the profile in that space, and those have been killer in the past. Plus it looks like an uphill drag finish. Scenarios that wouldn't surprise me:

- Matthews wins a sprint from a group of 50;
- Valverde (or Kiwi, maybe) wins a sprint from a small group of favorites that drop everyone else on the unexpectedly steep final uncategorized climb;
- Contador sees a difficult section on the last 'climb', seizes the opportunity and accelerates, and gets the stage plus another 10-15 seconds;
- a small group makes it to the top of the last uncategorized climb and a reckless descender (does Samu still have it?) goes for it and gets it on an unexpectedly technical run down to the finish;

This stage seems like it could be more selective than stage 3, but who knows. The variety of climbs and opportunity for many different scenarios on each stage goes a long way towards making this my favourite weeklong race on the calendar, for sure.

They seem fairly likely. If it's a bunch sprint, I'll go with Matthews. If there's a good break and attacks I'll go with Albasini, either Sanchez, Gilbert or similar. If the big names ramp it up in the last 30-40km I think we'll be treated to a Gerrans/Valverde/Gilbert showdown. IMO this may happen, as these guys may want a mental edge heading in to the Ardennes.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I'm backing Vichot for this. It's a good test for the Ardennes.

 

[vladimir]

I think this will be won from a breakaway. With over half the riders more than 9 minutes down on GC after stage one, and no obvious team to chase I predict a fierce battle to get into the breakaway on the first climb. I will go for Wellens to spark some life into my CQ team

 

[spanky wanderlust]

I think this will be won from a breakaway. With over half the riders more than 9 minutes down on GC after stage one, and no obvious team to chase I predict a fierce battle to get into the breakaway on the first climb. I will go for Wellens to spark some life into my CQ team

yep. after stage 1. cool race this is.

 

[theyoungest]

I'm surprised that Gilbert is being considered as a winner of anything at the moment.

Really, surprised?

 

[Roude Leiw]

Vichot and slagter seem good for me. A break might take it too, as there are no bonus, why would saxo chase everybody? There are a lot of people already at 10+minutes

 

[VeloHuman]

I'm backing Vichot for this. It's a good test for the Ardennes.

If Vichot can pull off a win here, he has truly made a step up to the next level. Very strong list of on-form punchy finishers here.

 

[nesocip]

Orica to chase down a strong breakaway and Matthews to take it.

 

[manafana]

vichot won with some racers in Paris Nice too,

I like Albasini more than Gerrans for this one he likes the though racing.

 

[Netserk]

http://www.itzulia.net/eu/2014/04/08/info#panel2

Better profile and map (you can zoom!).

Last 13.5 km:

 

[BigMac]

Is the very final any uphill?

edit: Well nevermind, thanks Netserk.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Race is now on.....

after 10km, peloton together.

Ticker: http://biciciclismo.com/cas/site/eventos_online-ficha.asp?id=509

 

[Dazed and Confused]

After 29km, gap 2:30

66º 4 IZAGIRRE, Gorka MOV + 06′ 32″
89º 13 DUPONT, Hubert ALM + 14′ 32″
61º 88 JUNGELS, Bob TFR + 04′ 15″
112º 135 MALACARNE, Davide EUC + 15′ 45″
85º 151 MARTIN, Tony OPQ + 11′ 36″
92º 152 BAKELANTS, Jan OPQ + 14′ 32″
63º 142 MONFORT, Maxime LTB + 05′ 06″

Fraile somewhere in the middle.

Anyway damn strong break. Should put Tinkoff under some pressure.

 

[veji11]

After 29km, gap 2:30

66º 4 IZAGIRRE, Gorka MOV + 06′ 32″
89º 13 DUPONT, Hubert ALM + 14′ 32″
61º 88 JUNGELS, Bob TFR + 04′ 15″
112º 135 MALACARNE, Davide EUC + 15′ 45″
85º 151 MARTIN, Tony OPQ + 11′ 36″
92º 152 BAKELANTS, Jan OPQ + 14′ 32″
63º 142 MONFORT, Maxime LTB + 05′ 06″

Fraile somewhere in the middle.

Anyway damn strong break. Should put Tinkoff under some pressure.

why ? If I am Tinkoff I just controle it so that the lead doesn't balloon above 4/5 minutes and leave it at that.