2015 Ardennes Classics: 50th Amstel Gold Race - 4.19 - 258km

[Asero831]

Ardennes is on.. Will the odd guards continue to feature or there will be changing of the guards?

Route

Final 10 kms

2014 Top 10
1.GILBERT Philippe
2.VANENDERT Jelle
3.GERRANS Simon
4.VALVERDE Alejandro
5.KWIATKOWSKI Michal
6.GESCHKE Simon
7.MOLLEMA Bauke
8.GASPAROTTO Enrico
9.MORENO Daniel
10.ARASHIRO Yukiya

Current Odds

 

[SafeBet]

Old guards. New guards. I don't give a ***.
I just hope it's not the immense borefest it was the last couple of years (not strictly AGR, all of them).

 

[Flamin]

I have good hopes for Liège to have decent action from Roche, but Amstel? Nope, not with this sh*t route.

 

[Netserk]

I like the new finish line, but I wish they'd drop the last circuit, though we all know why it's there.

 

[Asero831]

Why is Spilak and Zakarin not racing here? It also seems that Quintana opted out.

 

[May0maniac]

Felline could be a darkhorse.

 

[Jagartrott]

I'm quite liking Lotto for this: Wellens, Gallopin, Vanendert. That's three contenders.
But I doubt any of them will win this. Gilbert, Valverde and Matthews would be my top picks.

 

[Panda Claws]

Will be interesting to see what Gilbert's form is like in Brabantse Pijl.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Will be interesting to see what Gilbert's form is like in Brabantse Pijl.

Yep, will also be interesting to see what kind of form Gerrans has - I guess that the Ardennes has come just a bit too soon for him.

 

[Asero831]

Samu Sanchez would be a factor here knowing the final decent will determine the winner of the race.

 

[Brullnux]

I'd quite like to see Degenkolb here, we saw what he can do on a steep uphill, so he could be a factor in this and La Flèche if he participates. He couldn't win Liege, though. Felline will be good here. If he managed to out sprint Matthews then he surely is a better bet than him? Especially considering he finished about 35th in GC at Pais Vasco, and got a top 10 up the Col d'Ospedale, so he can climb.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re:

I'd quite like to see Degenkolb here, we saw what he can do on a steep uphill, so he could be a factor in this and La Flèche if he participates. He couldn't win Liege, though. Felline will be good here. If he managed to out sprint Matthews then he surely is a better bet than him? Especially considering he finished about 35th in GC at Pais Vasco, and got a top 10 up the Col d'Ospedale, so he can climb.

Fleche I think needs someone whose "climbing ability to sprinting ability ratio" is no more biased in favour of sprinting than that of a Simon Gerrans. I just don't see how Degenkolb holds the wheel of Valverde, Purito, Martin and co.

Degenkolb would be a super middle weight if he was a boxer, which really isn't ideal for the Mur de Huy. He's between 10 and 17 kgs heavier than the main contenders. He's very good on hills for a sprinter, but sprinters who can climb a bit don't win Fleche.

 

[BigMac]

Re:

I like the new finish line, but I wish they'd drop the last circuit, though we all know why it's there.

Subscribed.

Makes it slightly more about enduring 'til the line rather than bombing your way to the summit.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Hopefully Dumoulin will lunch a long range attack and get some serious riders with him.

 

[DBotero]

Re: 2015 Ardennes Classics: Amstel Gold Race - April 19 - 25

Valverde vs Gilbert should be a close battle.

 

[SafeBet]

Re:

Hopefully Dumoulin will lunch a long range attack and get some serious riders with him.

Yeah, we gotta hope the likes of Dumoulin, Wellens, maybe Arredondo try from distance. They have the engine and ambition to do that.

Lotto in particular has options and has been racing aggressively this spring. Trek also has weapons to use.

 

[ray j willings]

Lets see if Gilbert can get back his wonderful form of a few years ago. That really was something special.
Valverde will be heavily marked. He will have to wheel suck until the end. He is a tactical master.

 

[Fernandez]

Re:

Lets see if Gilbert can get back his wonderful form of a few years ago. That really was something special.
Valverde will be heavily marked. He will have to wheel suck until the end. He is a tactical master.

I guess you are joking but i tell you one thing. Of course Valverde will be heavily marked, like he has been all his career, and do you know why? Because he is the fu... master of this kind of races. Valverde has been winning and podiumed since Gilbert was a boy and he will be doing it after Gilbert had retired. Gilbert has had 2 or 3 good years meanwhile Valverde has mainteined his level all his career. And he doesnt win more because everybody is looking at him always. Its very dificult to win when you are fighting against everybody.

 

[SafeBet]

Re: Re:

And he doesnt win more because everybody is looking at him always. Its very dificult to win when you are fighting against everybody.

That's not the only reason why he hasn't won more in his career (granted he's won a gazillion races).

 

[Mr.White]

Re:

I'd quite like to see Degenkolb here, we saw what he can do on a steep uphill, so he could be a factor in this and La Flèche if he participates. He couldn't win Liege, though. Felline will be good here. If he managed to out sprint Matthews then he surely is a better bet than him? Especially considering he finished about 35th in GC at Pais Vasco, and got a top 10 up the Col d'Ospedale, so he can climb.

Yeah he would come 58th

 

[Kwibus]

I bet Weening will be attacking in the final 20-30km of Amstel and Liege again and then once a nice group forms he starts to wheelsuck and take weak turns at the front so that the break is garanteed to fail.
All this so that attacking doesn't work and Gerrans can do his final sprint.

I've noticed these tactics by Greenedge for 2 years now. It is as if they attack, but they attack to disturb attackers.

One of the lamest tactics I've seem so far and most don't even notice they do it.

 

[Shardi]

Re: 2015 Ardennes Classics: Amstel Gold Race - April 19 - 25

So do you reckon the tables will turn this Brabantse Pijl around?

Matthews looks good.
Gallopin looks good.
Gilbert looks.. on his way but not so sure
Chavanel?
Bakelants?
Bardet?
Kelderman?
Hows Moreno Moser doing nowadays?

 

[Netserk]

I bet Weening will be attacking in the final 20-30km of Amstel and Liege again and then once a nice group forms he starts to wheelsuck and take weak turns at the front so that the break is garanteed to fail.
All this so that attacking doesn't work and Gerrans can do his final sprint.

I've noticed these tactics by Greenedge for 2 years now. It is as if they attack, but they attack to disturb attackers.

One of the lamest tactics I've seem so far and most don't even notice they do it.

What's lame about it? All tactics that have the purpose to increase the chance to win are not only legit, but also welcomed. Every single one.

 

[SafeBet]

Re: 2015 Ardennes Classics: Amstel Gold Race - April 19 - 25

Hows Moreno Moser doing nowadays?

He's feeling very good.
Exactly like the past two years.

 

[Red Rick]

The Dutch will all be riding for 9th place, except for Dumoulin. Expect a boring uphill sprint