2015 Giro d'Italia, stage 11: Forlì - Imola 153km

[Flamin]

From Eshnar's thread:

Stage 11: Forlì – Imola 153 kms

Start time: 13:00, May 20th

Analysis:
Very tough and atypical stage. We start in Forlì and immediatly we head south into the Appennines for the last time of this year. After 15 km flat, the peloton hits a combo of 5 very tough hills, and three of them are not categorized, just for the lolz. It all starts with the GPM3 Passo del Trebbio (6.3 kms at 6.3%), then the Monte Casale (4.2 kms at 6.7%, with 2 kms at 10%... nothing to see here), then 6 kms flat, then the climb to La Valletta (2.7 kms at 9.8%... no category, yeah, seriously), then the Monte Albano (4.6 kms at 6.1%), and finally the other categorized climb, the GPM3 Valico del Prugno (5.6 kms at 6.2%). After this knackering combo, the riders will have 14 kms of deserved relax, going towards the mythical Autodromo "Enzo e Dino Ferrari", the famous circuit of Imola. Here they enter the final circuit of the stage, which is not equal to the "real" circuit, mind you. The circuit goes like this: starting from the finishing line (which is the same as the real circuit), the riders will face mythical bends like the Tamburello, Tosa, Acque Minerali and Variante Alta. Just after the latter chicane, they leave the circuit to climb the GPM4 Tre Monti (4.4 kms at 4.1%) which features a first couple of kms between 6-8%, then a km of flat, and then a final ramp of 700m at over 7%. This climb will be GPM only once, the third time they'll climb it. After the climb, a descent will bring everybody into the Autodromo again, just at the exit of Rivazza, after which it's just a long straight all the way to the finish. The peloton will enter the final circuit for the first time mid-way, at the very beginning of the climb, and will race it a first time and then other 3 full times.

Expectations:
This is very hard to predict. Surely the breakaway will have huge chances of surviving, but here the attackers have a very clear chance to win a stage without the sprinters' team nor the gc teams contesting, so they should really go for it.

 

[Flamin]

Obvious break away win. Those first 70k are great.

 

[Gigs_98]

Prediction:
Porte will attack on the passo del trebbio and win this stage by 3 minutes and 9 seconds...

 

[Eagle]

Hopefully Sky and Astana spend the whole day sending riders on the attack leading to mayhem

 

[SeriousSam]

Porte will do an Indurain. Get a minute in the hells, and 3 in the time trial.

 

[SkyTears]

people who think you can recover from a 3 minute loss from a flat and a stupid penalty are funny

Porte's Giro is over

and i hope is over for many people

this is a farce of a race

 

[Velolover2]

A break for sure.

In this Giro, the break even survive pancake flat stages.

 

[Flamin]

Re:

people who think you can recover from a 3 minute loss from a flat and a stupid penalty are funny

Porte's Giro is over

and i hope is over for many people

this is a farce of a race

Lol, you said you were quitting cycling after Mount Baldy, so why don't you do us all a favour?

 

[Eagle]

Re:

people who think you can recover from a 3 minute loss from a flat and a stupid penalty are funny

Porte's Giro is over

and i hope is over for many people

this is a farce of a race

You said you were going to give up following cycling after the Mount Baldy stage, yet you are still here

Edit: lol, too slow

 

[Flamin]

Where did Red Rick's thread come from all of a sudden? Created 15 mins before mine but I refreshed just before I submitted to check if no one else made one

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

people who think you can recover from a 3 minute loss from a flat and a stupid penalty are funny

Porte's Giro is over

and i hope is over for many people

this is a farce of a race

that was a joke...

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Yeah this looks like a Porte vs Matthews battle. I wonder who Clarke will help?

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Where did Red Rick's thread come from all of a sudden? Created 15 mins before mine but I refreshed just before I submitted to check if no one else made one

I dunno what happened really, didn't even realise it's not the thread that I started

Anyway, my prediction

Expectations:
This stage is in honour of the mighty doc Ferrari, expect total annihilation. Porte to go full ***, Astana to go full ***. Most of Tinkoff will rue the day they first sat their ass on a bike. The rest of the peloton will be pondering the meaning of their suffering and will hate their puny existence

 

[Campervan man]

I've been round the circuit twice this evening and it's got a couple of nice ramps. From the race track up there's maybe 4/5 ramps with the last before the summit the steepest I would say. Then it's good road surface back down, twisty, fast enough with a few kick ups should be a good circuit for action. Part of me wants to see Krezuger allowed to go to spice things up. Forecast isn't hot tomorrow as far as I'm aware and rains on the way next day or 2 so maybe wet. Defiantly a break away has a good chance again. Nice stage.

 

[Eagle]

Re:

Yeah this looks like a Porte vs Matthews battle. I wonder who Clarke will help?

I wonder who Matthews will help?

 

[Tank Engine]

A day for a strong breakaway with the last half not being hard enough for a GC battle though. I'll go for Battaglin.

 

[Metabolol]

Sky will go crazy and try to send Cataldo up the road. Landa will follow and Kreuziger will follow Landa. Porte will attack and try to join up with Cataldo.

 

[Red Rick]

Surely Astana wouldn't mind letting Sky send Cataldo up the road

 

[Metabolol]

Re:

Surely Astana wouldn't mind letting Sky send Cataldo up the road

I think they will try to reverse the game. I can't see them (with vino) sit back and just watch. Not his or their style. Tinkoff won't sit back either but they won't be as aggressive as Astana. That's why I see a chain reaction coming. Orica-Cataldo-Landa-Kreuziger.

 

[Vino's Mum]

Re:

Sky will go crazy and try to send Cataldo up the road. Landa will follow and Kreuziger will follow Landa. Porte will attack and try to join up with Cataldo.

Which Cataldo, bruv?

 

[manafana]

a nice interesting stage and a good balance, quiet like them nice and short

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re:

people who think you can recover from a 3 minute loss from a flat and a stupid penalty are funny

Porte's Giro is over

and i hope is over for many people

this is a farce of a race

Yup, in GT racing, nobody has ever recovered from a sizable deficit with a single ride.

 

[Irondan]

Re:

people who think you can recover from a 3 minute loss from a flat and a stupid penalty are funny

Porte's Giro is over

and i hope is over for many people

this is a farce of a race

But you seem to be pretty interested in it...

 

[Metabolol]

Re: Re:

Sky will go crazy and try to send Cataldo up the road. Landa will follow and Kreuziger will follow Landa. Porte will attack and try to join up with Cataldo.

Which Cataldo, bruv?

Sorry, that should be Nieve or König.

This **** is confusing.

 

[The Hitch]

Since the Giro is now, apparently over, as half the forum insists, the main interest will be in seeing if Bertie can go 17-0 with the jersey.

To do that he can't lose any time to Aru tomorrow or at Huy on Friday, then extend his lead in the tt.

What would be the previous longest consecutive days someone held the jersey at a gt? Wiggins 2012 Froome 2013 and Contador 2011 all if memory serves held it from the 2nd Sunday to the end. Nibs last year held the jersey for 20 days but only 11 consecutive.