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2015 Giro d'Italia Stage 18: Melide > Verbania 170km

From Eshnar:

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Start time: 12:55, May 28th

Analysis:
The first of the final high mountain block of this edition starts in Switzerland, but gets back into Italy after just 15 kms. The first 120 kms of this stage are almost completely pan flat around the Lago Maggiore. The only thing worth mentioning is the little climb to Bieno (2.3 km at 6.8%), which, for reasons out of the reach of us mere mortals, holds a TV instead of a GPM. Whatever. The descent of this non-GPM brings the riders directly into Verbania, but luckily the fun is only about to start. At exactly 46 km to go, the biggest new climb of this Giro starts: the GPM1 Monte Ologno. With its 10.4 km at 9%, it is quite clearly the third hardest climb of the whole race. After the GPM, the riders will go downhill for only 2 kms, after which they'll climb again towards Piancavallo (no, not the famous one), 3 kms at around 8%. At the top, other 3 km of false flats, first slighlty descending and then ascending up to 7-8% in the final ramps. After those, the real descent starts. It is a very tricky and technical descent, which is divided in two parts by another little uphill stretch, 3 km long, with some serious ramps but mostly false flat. The descent ends at 5 km to go. These final kms are flat and mostly straight, running along the lake.

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Expectations:
This stage has big potential. However, it is the only descent finish of the race and comes before two high mountain stages, so we'll be very lucky if the GC riders will take this seriously. If they do, this will be awesome, with a big steep climb followed by a very rough terrain and a technical descent. The final 5 kms should not be much of a problem, and if the peloton has blown up they would even give a bigger advantage to those who still have some energy left.
 
Jul 12, 2013
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't will be carnage (If Astana decides to make it so)
Contador to be isolated by the half of the climb.
 
Mar 31, 2010
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Re:

Ataraxus said:
't will be carnage (If Astana decides to make it so)
Contador to be isolated by the half of the climb.
why would astana make it hard? so aru loses his podium?
 
1 Alberto Contador (Spa) Tinkoff-Saxo

2 Mikel Landa (Spa) Astana 4:02
3 Fabio Aru (Ita) Astana 4:52
4 Andrey Amador (CRi) Movistar 5:48

5 Yury Trofimov (Rus) Katusha 8:27
6 Leopold Konig (Cze) Sky 9:31
7 Damiano Caruso (Ita) BMC 9:52

8 Steven Kruijswijk (Ned) Lotto-Jumbo 11:40
9 Alexandre Geniez (Fra) FDJ 12:48
10 Ryder Hesjedal (Can) Cannondale-Garmin 13:01
Team Leaders in bold

With the rosa having long been won, there are now several sub-battles in GC; 1st group fight for final podium, 2nd group fight for top 5th place, and 3rd group of guys, with a long shot at top 5 (which requires a huge, epic ride AND the collapse of some guys in the 2nd group).
 
Jul 12, 2013
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Re: Re:

Ryo Hazuki said:
Ataraxus said:
't will be carnage (If Astana decides to make it so)
Contador to be isolated by the half of the climb.
why would astana make it hard? so aru loses his podium?

Astana believes Aru had just a bad day in Aprica and can outclimb Amador and Trofimov.
And they are right IMHO. Only once Amador has gained on Aru in the mountains and that was because of a bike change.
I believe (and hope) they won't settle for 2&3 just yet.
They will try tomorrow and at Cervinia stage at least.
 
So many possible winners here ... Has to be a strong climber but unlikely one of the top 3 on the GC.
Kruijswijk, Trofimov, Caruso all good prospects.

Mountains jersey is also very interesting. Kruijswijk and Intxausti the two main chances but maybe they save themselves for tomorrow when there are three Cat 1 climbs.
 
Jul 29, 2012
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Re: Re:

Ryo Hazuki said:
Ataraxus said:
't will be carnage (If Astana decides to make it so)
Contador to be isolated by the half of the climb.
why would astana make it hard? so aru loses his podium?

To who? Kruiswijk? Cause no one else is a better climber than aru besides him atm that's behind aru