2015 Giro First Week Wrap Up

[Eshnar]

So what are your thoughts about these first 9 stages?
I'm quite satisfied with the racing tbh. I was also fearing Contador would crush everybody already, making the other two weeks useless, instead we have 3(4) riders still in contention.

 

[BigMac]

Landa will win after accidentally dropping Aru.

 

[Netserk]

Hmm, I was going to do it tomorrow, but will give you a heads up now Eshnar. Can you help me do the "By how much will Contador win this Giro" poll? Only polls made by you mods work... I'll do the thread, but is it best that I make the poll how I want it and you then remove it and make one similar that works, or should I just pm you the options etc.?

 

[SafeBet]

Contador still the big favorite for me. Wasn't expecting such a bad first week from Uran, which takes some excitment away from the ITT. Aru seems in the form of his life but I don't particularly trust him in multi mountain stages. I don't know what to make of Porte, he's surely riding perfectly thus far and could win some time in the TT. What if he doesn't crack as most people are predicting?

Interesting battle for the other top10 placements. There's still plenty of riders in the mix and a break from long distance could prove to be the difference maker even for top5 placement.

Overall a good first week of racing. A couple of letdowns here and there, but some very exciting stages. I'm really hoping to see Felline get a win sooner or later.

 

[Velolover2]

One of the most awesome GT I've seen in a long long time.

Very early action in almost every stage with hills and mountains. With a lot of top 10 candidates not afraid to attack from 100k out. Seeing Contador attacking on a soft medium mountain with 6k to go and Aru whenever he got the chance is what makes cycling watchable.

And even better, the break (or parts of it) has survived most of the time.

 

[Cookster15]

Contador is still the big favourite - especially as his injury seems to be at the lower scale of possible shoulder subluxation pain level and does not seem to be hindering his performance much. Aru remains the next biggest threat largely thanks to the strength of Astana. Porte remains an outsider for Pink in Milan - we will know more after the TT, then see how he performs in the 3rd week. But based upon the strength he has shown so far Porte should take some time in the TT - he may find himself in Pink then his Sky team will be called to defend in the big mountains - maybe Sky has been saving themselves for that? I also wouldn't count Uran out just yet if he recovers from his chest infection as reported. We will know much more after stage 14.

So for me not much has changed since my pre Giro thoughts but it certainly hasn't been boring.

 

[Eshnar]

Re:

Hmm, I was going to do it tomorrow, but will give you a heads up now Eshnar. Can you help me do the "By how much will Contador win this Giro" poll? Only polls made by you mods work... I'll do the thread, but is it best that I make the poll how I want it and you then remove it and make one similar that works, or should I just pm you the options etc.?

do it and I'll remake it. My poll was not working either, I had to delete it and make it again. It works only like that apparently.

 

[Netserk]

Re: Re:

Hmm, I was going to do it tomorrow, but will give you a heads up now Eshnar. Can you help me do the "By how much will Contador win this Giro" poll? Only polls made by you mods work... I'll do the thread, but is it best that I make the poll how I want it and you then remove it and make one similar that works, or should I just pm you the options etc.?

do it and I'll remake it. My poll was not working either, I had to delete it and make it again. It works only like that apparently.

Thanks.



On topic: I definitely think this has been as great as we could possibly hope for. Absolute killer first week. I'm looking very much forward to the Forli stage, which I think will be another good one.

 

[WheelofGear]

The lack of hard MTF stages is probably the best decision ever.

The Tour would be more entertaining with a race design like this.

 

[The Hitch]

I think the oracle of London got it spot on

And absolutely no hyperbole when I say this, but is the hardest 1st week of a gt I have EVER seen. Sure there's probably some from back in the day that were harder but this 2015 giro first week is at least 10 times as hard as the average gt first week. Just at face value its 1 ttt, 2 sprints, 2 mtfs and 4 hill stages.

And that doesn't even begin to paint the picture. The ttt sounds crash prone. They do 1 sprint before they have a stage where they are just climbing all day and thats stage 3 which means theres no gaps on gt and could be nuclear all day. they have a Gap like stage which gc riders might have to contest, an actual MTF.

And that's the easy half of the first week.

That second half is ridiculous. A 264km stage? Its not flat either but with a challenging last 100k and hard finish. I remember the 230k flat stage from the 2013 Giro Rubiano won that wasn't even raced hard and some riders afterwards said it was the hardest day of their careers. Ok that was south Italy and 35 degrees iirc but this will be 264k and in Tuscany you very well could get 30 degrees, this stage is gonna kill people.

And thats not even the hardest stage of the week because 2 days later its 250k on a stage which from what I can see has like 3000m climbing, just up and down all day.
In between there's a hard MTF.

Like I said, hardest 1st week ever. Which is why I say its the hardest gt of the last decade, because while the Zomegnan gts gave you a packed 2nd and 3rd week, you really have to take into account the fact that this is a 3 week gt where the riders are going to be getting massively fatigued throughout the first 9 days, rather enjoying 180k sprint stages.

 

[Rollthedice]

As expected Contador in pole position with Aru behind. I would have thought Duran Duran to be third but RV Porte is doing great following wheels. Exciting racing, very hard, Formolo and Tiralongo winning stages. Astana doing a Harlem Globetrotters show (that's a quote). Looking forward to the 60k TT, we might be in for some surprises.

 

[ferryman]

No real surprises other than Contador doesn't have more time to take this home as easy as he expected. But blame the shoulder for that as it surely would have been otherwise. He's a shrewd guy...game was over for Aru and Porte 2 days ago...

 

[Eyeballs Out]

It's been hard racing but all mid-mountains stuff so far so it's all guesswork really.

If Uran has had a cold then now is the best time to have it when you lose 2 mins in a week rather than 2 mins a day which it will be from saturday onwards. My guess is Uran still makes the podium probably at the expense of Porte.

Sky have been conservative so far and probably not surprising since they must be concerned as to whether Porte can get through a 3 week tour. So even though Porte has done well so far and is Aus TT champ (which is generally saying quite a lot), ultimately he's got to prove he can finish top 5 in a GT let alone win one. If he was really going to win this race I think Sky would have done a lot better in the TTT

Contador wants to win this doing the bare minimum. I think his idea was to come here at 95% and with this looking like a weak renewal that would be good enough. Then he'd hit the Tour at 100% so the opposite of 2011. He probably wasn't expecting this from Astana though

Aru just looks strong every day which wasn't the case last year when he was more up and down yet still made the podium. This looks like his year and at worst I think he's going to force Contador to go pretty deep

 

[TheGreenMonkey]

Clear top three.

Uran does not have it, no way he finishes on the podium unless one of the top three falls apart. Landa could finish on the podium.

The stages to Imola and Vicenza could be interesting from a GC perspective but it is the TT which is the next major challenge. With it being so long it is hard to know who will go well and how much time will be gained. If someone goes out too hard they could lose massive time at the end. Porte did not that well in the similar length TT at the 2013 world championships. Not sure when Aru or Contador have done a TT of similar length

 

[Escarabajo]

Landa to pull a Froome!

 

[hfer07]

Re:

Landa to pull a Froome!

oh man- I honestly thought about it too. It would be the biggest soap opera in Italy

 

[Eshnar]

Re:

Landa to pull a Froome!

It's more likely he'll pull a Cunego.

 

[boringboy]

I still think Uran could come back to some sort of form, but seems he will have to without a team, as not seeing much help for him at all.

I hope that Rogers and Kreuziger will come into form, also expected a bit more from Basso and hope he will be stronger going forward, otherwise it might be difficult for Contador. Unless Astana end up burning themselves but using too much energy in first week(s).

Sky has also been very quiet, they might be saving themselves.

Will be interesting to see after the rest day.

 

[motty89]

great first week! Will be very interesting to see how landa/aru do in the tt. I wonder if he's still close to aru after the tt he'll be so willing to pull for him...
I don't think porte looked great yesterday, seemed to struggle to close the gap. My prediction is aru's not got a good enough tt and porte won't be good enough in the mountains, leaving of course Landa to win!

 

[Netserk]

Re:

I think the oracle of London got it spot on

And absolutely no hyperbole when I say this, but is the hardest 1st week of a gt I have EVER seen. Sure there's probably some from back in the day that were harder but this 2015 giro first week is at least 10 times as hard as the average gt first week. Just at face value its 1 ttt, 2 sprints, 2 mtfs and 4 hill stages.

And that doesn't even begin to paint the picture. The ttt sounds crash prone. They do 1 sprint before they have a stage where they are just climbing all day and thats stage 3 which means theres no gaps on gt and could be nuclear all day. they have a Gap like stage which gc riders might have to contest, an actual MTF.

And that's the easy half of the first week.

That second half is ridiculous. A 264km stage? Its not flat either but with a challenging last 100k and hard finish. I remember the 230k flat stage from the 2013 Giro Rubiano won that wasn't even raced hard and some riders afterwards said it was the hardest day of their careers. Ok that was south Italy and 35 degrees iirc but this will be 264k and in Tuscany you very well could get 30 degrees, this stage is gonna kill people.

And thats not even the hardest stage of the week because 2 days later its 250k on a stage which from what I can see has like 3000m climbing, just up and down all day.
In between there's a hard MTF.

Like I said, hardest 1st week ever. Which is why I say its the hardest gt of the last decade, because while the Zomegnan gts gave you a packed 2nd and 3rd week, you really have to take into account the fact that this is a 3 week gt where the riders are going to be getting massively fatigued throughout the first 9 days, rather enjoying 180k sprint stages.

By profiles, 2011 was harder. First week as well.

Best raced =/= Hardest

 

[Sasquatch]

Red Jersey looks like it will go to Viviani. Two stages in the next week suits Matthews more than him, but that is not going to be enough for Matthews to get the points back.

Blue jersey is going to be an interesting battle. There's only 2 stages this week where you can score points, but not many. Geshke will probably try to defend it on Wednesday or Thursday.

Geshke: 50 pts
Intxausti: 39 pts
Kruijswijk: 37 pts
Betancur: 33 pts
Tiralongo: 23 pts
Zardini: 14 pts
Pirazzi: Yet To Score

Sunday, Tuesday and Friday are going to be the key stages. Geshke has a slight chance to do a Matthew Lloyd here. He could get maximum points on the Sunday stage on the first two clibms and with the rest day between the two big mountain stages, who knows. It's doubtful though. It all depends if Intxausti, Betancur and Kruijswijk target it. They are after stage wins so they might not care about it but they will get points on the final climbs and Tuesday's stage will be too hard for Geshke to stay with the pure climbers from the outset of the stage. Pirazzi is a slight chance but his focus will now be a stage win. If they want it in their team, they are better off going with Zardini.

In the overall scheme of things I wouldn't write off Uran yet to finish 2nd to Contador. I've said it the last week. He will perform next week when it matters. He will get back time on Aru in the time trial and then Porte will have a dog day sometime next week and Uran will get stronger.

 

[Taxus4a]

My conclusions:

This Giro is hard but there is not one specially hard stage or three stages in a row crazy hard as Hesjedal Giro. Mortirolo and Finestre are quite alone this year, so people has flying in this first week, they are not saving a lot. There have been already some hard stages and they attacked in all of them-

Astana is impresive strong, but not only Astana, Saxo as well, and the time od SKY, with Koning and Nieve has not yet arrived. With this level of domestiques is impossible a breakaway take influence in GC, so Cunego or Hesjedal options fade away.

Landa is in the best moment of his career. I know him and he is a quite and shy guy but he has a big confidence in his talent and in his capacity. We will enjoy if Astana alow him to attack more. He could lose a lot in the ITT (5-10 minutes), but he will continue as one of the most important riders of this Giro.

Rigo has no team and he is not OK, he need to recover after this rest day, but things are getting bad for him, it was very dissapointing to see him yesterday again bad after to be in Campitelo with the best riders, and the stage suit him very well, that is not any excuse.

Contador is in his nest level. The crash put him in a defensive mode this weekend, but he will be after today again without problems. The crash dont affect him in his shape, just to take care and be less agresive, he need now to rest an heal totally.

Aru and Porte we dont know how they will be at the second of the Giro. Ones is very agresive, the other the oposite.

The position in GC after the ITT will be important, If Contador is still in pink or the best in GC of the favourites he has much done to win the Giro. If he has to attack he will have serious problems to win.

 

[Carols]

It's been a grand week of racing to date. Aside from 2 sprint stages (I'm not a sprint fan), one with its nasty crashes, every day has brought some kind of excitement. Breakaways succeeding with fresh faces Formolo and Polanc winning, old timer Tira winning. This is good stuff!

Aru and Astana aggressively take it to the injured Contador to see if they can dislodge him. Sky almost completely absent except for Porte sucking wheel when Aru goes and Contador follows. Those 2 teams have blown it IMO, Contador is obviously recovering. If they couldn't get rid of him in the last 3 days the odds are low they will do it from here on out. They are lucky he was injured otherwise he would have Attacked by now and most likely have a larger lead. Tinkoff looked weak in the medium mountains so that is in the others favor come the high mountains. Basso is useless, should retire ASAP.

Cons: Pozzo crash and abandon, spectator's camera causes mayhem; nauseating pics of Colli's broken arm, Contador dislocates shoulder in same crash.

Biggest surprise: Landa!

All in all I've enjoyed the race to date!

 

[IndianCyclist]

The opening moves have played out with 3 contenders and Astana as the strongest team with Landa as a dark horse. Everybody is now waiting for the TT to decide what to do.

 

[murali]

To quote Eshnar from his stage-by-stage analysis:

Speaking of GPMs, the categorization of some of them is laughable. I will point it out during the stage analysis. The organisers also left out a lot of climbs, probably trying to balance the mountain points competition or to hide from the official data the ridiculously high number of little climbs that will feature in this edition. Either way, I would say that when you force yourself to put only 3 GPMs in a stage that features no less than 9 climbs (as it happened in stage 11), maybe it's time to rethink the whole KOM concept.

this sort of rounds up what we really saw in this week. Half the freaking uncategorized "hillocks" would have been given Cat 3 in TdF or Veulta.

As everyone has been saying for a long time:

The riders make the race, not the course profile

Saxo guys had gone bonkers in the early part of almost every stage, almost leaving Bertie alone in every stage. Astana has been the most aggressive team so far. Considering that they managed to drop skyborgs by setting pace, i would say that they were a revelation. (i dont think they have any marginal gains working for them. their riders are coming to set pace with 50 kim left or so.) Sky, surprisingly, have been less prominent in the first week.

Best part: the GC riders are having their own race. They are happily letting break(or part of the original break) win. This will make lots of guys far behind in GC race to try to form a decent break and go for stage win.
Astana, and to some extent saxo, have really made the race so far. The sleeping sky will wake up soon.

Cons: EQS lost two riders a bit early. Abandon of Serry is going to affect uran's chances.(remember, Uran has already had his mandatory bad day).
the horrible crash. The giro organizers should seriously consider having double barriers. one for normal people. the other for morons who think that riding their bike into a charging peloton, or for imbeciles who think that shoving their camera(or mobile phone) on the way of riders.

I think that second week is going to be equally good. stage 10,13 is crash-prone. stage 11 is insane. expecting break to win here. stage 12 will see either break win or GC contenders battling it out. Then the crucial ITT, followed by the TT loser's chance to take revenge in the MTF.
Most likely, we will see GC riders going hard on just stage 12, ITT and 15.
But seeing how these guys are riding, i dont think Astana has any such intention. so we will still have break win on non-sprint stages.