2015 Tour dFrance Stage 12 Lannemazan - Plat de Beille 195km

[barmaher]

So here we are well into the second half of the race. The third of our three Pyrenees stages. And in my opinion the best designed.

Most people are calling the battle for yellow over already, with Froome in a commanding lead. But there are many difficult stages left. And this is no exception. The riders head from Lannemazan due east over a series of difficult climbs, with the notorious Plateau de Beille to finish things off.

It is not just the climbing that will be a factor, however. Weather is set to climb into the mid 30s in the valleys again tomorrow, so watch out for guys losing a lot of time if they get into difficulty. 35C with a chance of thunderstorms.

Wind is moderate due east, so a head wind for most of the day, with a crosswind on the final climb.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/fr/foix/145184/weather-forecast/145184

Four major climbs make this the perfect day out for those riders targeting the polka-dot King of the Mountains jersey.

The Col de Portet d’Aspet comes just over 40km into the stage; remember that 20 years ago, on the 15th stage from Saint-Girons to Cauterets, the then reigning Olympic road race champion crashed on the descent of the Portet d’Aspet, and died shortly afterwards.

From here, the race heads on to the Col de la Core,

The climbs just keep getting bigger as first the riders scale the Port de Lers, , before it’s on to the big one, Plateau de Beille — at 1,780m high and 16 kilometres long, with an average gradient of eight per cent, but with sections touching 10 per cent.

Standings:

General Classification after Stage 11
GBR 1 FROOME, Christopher (SKY) 41:03:31
USA 2 VAN GARDEREN, Tejay (BMC RACING) + 2:52
COL 3 QUINTANA ROJAS, Nairo Alexander (MOVISTAR) + 3:09
ESP 4 VALVERDE BELMONTE, Alejandro (MOVISTAR) + 3:59
GBR 5 THOMAS, Geraint (SKY) + 4:03
ESP 6 CONTADOR VELASCO, Alberto (TINKOFF - SAXO) + 4:04
FRA 7 GALLOPIN, Tony (LOTTO SOUDAL) + 4:33
NED 8 GESINK, Robert (LOTTO NL - JUMBO) + 4:35
FRA 9 BARGUIL, Warren (GIANT - ALPECIN) + 6:44
NED 10 MOLLEMA, Bauke (TREK FACTORY RACING) + 7:05
ITA 11 NIBALI, Vincenzo (ASTANA) + 7:47
SUI 12 FRANK, Mathias (IAM CYCLING) + 9:26
ESP 13 SANCHEZ GONZALEZ, Samuel (BMC RACING) + 10:27
FRA 14 ROLLAND, Pierre (EUROPCAR) + 13:57
USA 15 TALANSKY, Andrew (CANNONDALE - GARMIN) + 16:33
IRL 16 MARTIN, Daniel (CANNONDALE - GARMIN) + 16:38
COL 17 URAN URAN, Rigoberto (ETIXX - QUICK STEP) + 17:55
DEN 18 FUGLSANG, Jakob (ASTANA) + 19:14
ESP 19 RODRIGUEZ OLIVER, Joaquin (KATUSHA) + 20:42
FRA 20 BARDET, Romain (AG2R LA MONDIALE) + 22:07

KoM Standings

Froome 57pts
Porte 40pts
Majka 32pts
Quintana 32pts
Gesink 28pts
Martin 27pts
Pauwels 26pts

Prediction

I think we will see another strong break today, and I am not so sure Sky will have the inclination to chase it down. I expect riders like Hesjedal, Golas, Simon Yates, Majka (if he has the energy), Serpa, Vuillermoz, etc. And I don't expect Sky to be too exercised to chase them unless a rider within 10 minutes is in the lead group.

I don't expect too much from the group of favourites until Sky puts the hammer down.

So I go for break to win. Let's say Hesjedal. Froome to gain 30 seconds on Quintana. Contador to drop buckets of time. And Valverde and Thomas to overtake TJ on GC.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Break to win. Contador to be the third best of the GC guys.

 

[Warhawk]

I predict that Froome, in his hotel room tonight, suddenly and unexpectedly reaches Buddhist enlightenment, and announces he is leaving the Tour de France to travel the world and teach the Dharma.

Then Thomas wins the stage by 6 minutes.

 

[ice&fire]

The show must go on:

Pierre-Saint-Martin 2015 = Ax3 2013
Plateau de Beille 2015 = Mt Ventoux 2013

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Re: 2015 Tour dFrance Stage 12 Lannemazan - Plat de Beille 1

On climbs like Plateau de Beille, very steep from the bottom, Sky can make carnage during first 5 kms of the climb and Froome can make large gaps again with his turbo on. However this time, after lots of climbing, Quintana should be much closer and he could even match Froome. Other favourites could lose a lot of time again but I expect Contador to be stronger than yesterday. I can't see any long range attack because of Plateau de Beille fear.

 

[Walkman]

I hope they push it all the way on the last climb. I want to see how fast they climb 2015 vs 2007.

 

[dacooley]

froome's still worried about the alpes and obviously doesn't find a gap comfortable. another full *** attack. plateau de beille is one of the hardest mtfs used in the tour so all the big guys will be riding singly that's for sure.

 

[Guybrush]

Rafa Valls, after a long solo ride

 

[Red Rick]

Froome


Quintana


random order.


Rain would be an advantage for Contador and Quintana. Froome seems to thrive in the heat

 

[Kwibus]

I don't like the stage design at all. After all the climbs comes a valley which kills attacks on climbs before the final cllimb.

Other teams will have to attack before the final climb though.... If they want to isolate Froome. Movistar needs to send riders up the road tomorrow.

 

[Miburo]

 

[Red Rick]

I think PdB doesn't connect too well with other climbs and it does pretty well as standalone MTF, not that with Sky there would be long range attacks or waiting till the last 2 km.

 

[DBotero]

Re: 2015 Tour dFrance Stage 12 Lannemazan - Plat de Beille 1

I'm not so sure Froome will target this,i think he's got his eyes on stage 20.Breakaway ftw! Hopefully big enough to survive if some teams try to test Sky.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

Froome
Thomas
<commercial break>
Quintana and Porte
<lunch break>
Contador, Van Livestrong, Valverde
<cows>
Barguil
....
A bunch of others rolling in.

 

[veji11]

Re: 2015 Tour dFrance Stage 12 Lannemazan - Plat de Beille 1

I'm not so sure Froome will target this,i think he's got his eyes on stage 20.Breakaway ftw! Hopefully big enough to survive if some teams try to test Sky.

Problem aren't the Sky themselves, it's that some other moronic teams will do the job for them : if you end up having Movistar or BMC or MTN or FDJ or god knows who doing the work for Sky to keep the breakaway within distance, than not sure it will survive.

Normally we should get a big big group going ahead in stages : some on the flat and some climbers on Portet d'Aspet.

 

[Jspear]

Quintana for the win....I hope.

 

[Warhawk]

Re:

Froome
Thomas
<commercial break>
Quintana and Porte
<lunch break>
Contador, Van Livestrong, Valverde
<cows>
Barguil
....
A bunch of others rolling in.

<kid on a tricycle>
Michael Matthews
<tumbleweed>
Nibali

 

[MatParker117]

Re:

I don't like the stage design at all. After all the climbs comes a valley which kills attacks on climbs before the final cllimb.

Other teams will have to attack before the final climb though.... If they want to isolate Froome. Movistar needs to send riders up the road tomorrow.

Movistar's next best rider is half an hour down, Sky won't care.

 

[Pantani Attacks]

Contador to surprise everyone tomorrow. Thomas to drop out of the top 10.

 

[veji11]

Horrible heat tomorrow again : 34/35°C in the valleys, means that the perceived temperature on the road will be around 40°C on many stretches. This is Omanesque, some big dropouts tomorrow again, riders looking gaunt like Bardet will have a hard time surviving the day. There might be some thunderstorms in the end, but mostly dry.

Poor guys, I much prefer riding in the cold and rain than this. They will be utterly fried.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Omanesque?

Robert Gesink to dominate

 

[Warhawk]

Re: Re:

I don't like the stage design at all. After all the climbs comes a valley which kills attacks on climbs before the final cllimb.

Other teams will have to attack before the final climb though.... If they want to isolate Froome. Movistar needs to send riders up the road tomorrow.

Movistar's next best rider is half an hour down, Sky won't care.

Unfortunately the only two teams other than Sky with two riders within 10 minutes or so are BMC and Movistar. BMC is hanging onto second spot and would want Sammy to stay with Tejay, and Movistar have the third and fourth spots and probably wouldn't want to sacrifice any chance Valverde has to a failed long-range attack in support of Quintana. Tinkoff seems to be just waiting it out at this point to see if Contador finds his legs, and Astana is a hot mess. And the rest of the teams in that top 11 don't really have any cards to play here.

 

[Poursuivant]

Re: 2015 Tour dFrance Stage 12 Lannemazan - Plat de Beille 1

I'm not so sure Froome will target this,i think he's got his eyes on stage 20.Breakaway ftw! Hopefully big enough to survive if some teams try to test Sky.

I've seen a few people say this but has Froome said he is targetting Alpe d'Huez?

 

[Psalmon]

Can someone of substance please try to attack long before PdB? That's all I ask. Otherwise it's like watching lambs being led (on bikes) to slaughter. Nobody knows how Froome is feeling, but today was just a parade at the top end of the race. Thanks for letting me recover mates! Oh and the obligatory, "that was a really hard stage", by Froome (so now I can't wait to execute you all tomorrow, look lamb stew!).
.
I'm reminded of 2003 after the ITT and Armstrong's "dehydration" episode. If Ulrich and others would have just gone after him early on Stage 13 and 14 rather than ride conservatively to the last parts of Stage 15 and the bottom of Luz Ardiden, someone would have beaten Armstrong that year. But instead they all dutifully followed so Lance could recover and win on Luz. Lesson: Don't wait for the Alpe and Stage 20!

Quintana is a good climber, but I don't see him gaining all the time back in the Alps. Tejay is just hanging on from what I hear in the interviews so he's just a follower. He "wins" if he get's third. Maybe Valverde and Gesink or Bauke can all go on the attack and break it up. Why not? Otherwise the axe is just waiting up there for you anyway at the PdB. And the closer you get to Paris, it's slicing deeper everyday.

 

[damian13ster]

I think Froome targets every stage possible.
Sky is not going to chase though if it means spending too much energy which could cost them later in the race. Thats why stage 20 is pretty much a sure thing- it is a last serious stage so they can give it their all, plus with iconic climb riders will surely want to put on a show.

Tommorow hopefully another breakaway victory for Majka. I think the breakaway will be bigger and stronger though so no more 50km solo rides (how insane was that )