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2015 Vuelta stage 15: Comillas > Sotres/Cabrales 175.8km

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Collado del Torno, 2ª (km 115,1): 530 m – 10,1 km – 3,3 %
Alto de Ortiguero, np (km 148): 443 m – 6 km – 5,2 %
Sotres – Collada la Caballar, 1ª (Meta): 1.230 m – 12,7 km – 8 %

The stage sets off in Comillas for a 70km ride along the coast, where the riders will enjoy a nice tailwind. Then the peloton turns inlands. The run-in towards the beautiful Picos de Europa is pretty easy. The final climb sure is not.
It can be divided in 3 parts. Steep-less steep-very steep. Especially the final kilometer is brutal.


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(the finish is at Collada de la Caballar, km 18)
 
There will be bigger gaps tomorrow. I hope Purito will take it. He needs the bonus seconds.

Quintana might attack early on the climb. Aru as well. Still need a lot of time on Dumoulin. It's harder than stage 14, so Aru has to gain at least 30-40 seconds on Tommy D. And 1,30-2.30 minutes on stage 16.
 
Dumoulin looked awful today. I expect him to loose around a minute tomorrow.

Really dislike the stage though, Unipublic stage, with a climb that has the steepidest part at the very end.

Aru will be more wary of Purito though, Purito might save Dumoulin's chances for overall victory.

Quintana ftw
 
Re:

Red Rick said:
Dumoulin looked awful today. I expect him to loose around a minute tomorrow.

Really dislike the stage though, Unipublic stage, with a climb that has the steepidest part at the very end.

Aru will be more wary of Purito though, Purito might save Dumoulin's chances for overall victory.

Quintana ftw

Nah, he mostly care about Dumoulin. And for a good reason. He is able to take 3 minutes (or maybe even more) on him in the ITT. He even said that he excepted to take at least 2 minutes on the rest of the GC guys. And as you stated, Aru needs to gain at least a minute on Dumoulin tomorrow. Gaining only 30 seconds would be a massive failure.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/vuelta-a-espana-aru-attacks-and-then-suffers-on-alto-de-campoo/

If he gains 1 minute tomorrow and 2 minutes in the final MTF stage. It's looking good.
If he gains 30 secs tomorrow and 1 minute in the final MTF stage. It's looking bad.
 
Re:

Escarabajo said:
It should be a good one. I wonder when Tom is going to crack? we might never see him crack.

Horner never cracked in 2013, au contraire. Why would Tom crack? He's almost 20 years younger than when Horner successfully managed to do the unthinkable, win Vuelta. Everything seems possible in Spain during this time of the year, even Valverde not reaching the podium.
 
Fuente del Chivo is ESP category and Jitu d'Escarandí isn't? These categorizations are ridiculous. This is a proper hard climb, and it's the brother of the vaunted and legendary Lagos de Covadonga. In a more realistic world, Fuente del Chivo is 1st category. This is ESP.

Here's what I wrote about the climb on the "21 ESP climbs the Vuelta should be using" thread:

Libertine Seguros said:
13. Jito de Escarandi (Asturias)
The silent brother

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The Picos de Europa mountain range is well known to the Vuelta, but Unipublic have only scratched the surface of what there is available in this range. Using a few Cantabrian climbs before the long and gradual summit to Fuente Dé in 2012 may have been a big success, and there may have been a few worthy outings for the long and painful Puerto de San Glorio, which is over 25km long at just under 5%, so not overly complicated but seemingly endless (we will see it in 2014, but unfortunately not in a position to be decisive); but more often than not, the contribution of this attractive mountain range to the Vuelta has been limited to a single climb. Of course, it is a pretty huge contribution, seeing as it is arguably the Vuelta's most storied and iconic ascent, the now legendary Lagos de Covadonga. This classic climb that has shaped many Vueltas in the preceding decades maxes out at around 15%, and has overall statistics of 14km at around 7%. Parallel to Lagos de Covadonga, similarly starting at the north of the Picos de Europa and similarly running in a southeasterly direction, lies its twin brother, the Jito de Escarandi (Jitu d'Escarandí in Asturianu)... which crests on the border between Asturias and Cantabria and is absolutely in no way a lesser climb than its more famous twin.

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There is only one way to climb the Jitu, and that's from Poncebos, a small village in the municipality of Cabrales, famous for its cheese. To ascend from here to the crest of the climb is a difficult 14,5km @ 7,5%. APM consider this to give it comparable stats to Isola 2000, perhaps because of the near-identical first 7km, but Isola's easing off comes more gradually than with El Jitu, and also Isola doesn't kick back up a second time either. You know another climb that has stats of just over 14km at around 7,5%? My beloved Fedaia (sorry Jitu, that's given you something impossible to live up to). Fedaia bundles all its most brutal slopes together at the end, however, and its brother Lagos de Covadonga bunches them in the start and middle of the climb, whereas here the toughest parts are split into two distinct sections.

This climb kicks off at full speed, with the first 4 kilometres averaging just under 9% and including some brutal slopes of up to 15% as we head along the Rio Cares and then the Rio Duje. And while it isn't the Serrai di Sottoguda, we do have a very attractive gorge to head through during these painful slopes, as well as a few dramatic tunnels before finally emerging to see Los Picos in all their glory. A strong pace here will burn off a lot of domestiques early on, with a number of ramps up to 14 and 15%. Passing Tielve, the road starts to level out, gradients reducing for a couple of kilometres (still at 6-7%) before giving riders a surprising treat in the form of a kilometre of false flat before ramping up again. The next 3 kilometres are fairly normal climbing kilometres, on roads in surprisingly good condition considering they only link a couple of very small mountain villages. Passing Tielve also gives us a wonderful waterfall, because the Picos de Europa are nothing if not pretty.

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With 5km remaining the road splits at a hairpin; we take the full hairpin rather than branching off to the right (that route does not stay paved for long) and continue up to the small town of Sotres, a picturesque mountainside establishment that is the largest population centre on the route. The first kilometre into Sotres is a vicious ramp twice as steep as its predecessor and getting up as far as 17%, which is steeper than the climb has managed to get to previously, and comes as part of a 500m ramp at a painful 15%; while the period from Tielve to the junction is for consolidation of the race situation developed on the early ramps, here is where the kick for home really begins. The gradient eases a little through Sotres itself, but leaving the town sees the road conditions worsen and the gradients hammer up to the highest that the Jito de Escarandi has to offer - 2km at 10,8%, including a 400m stretch averaging 17% and maxing out at 21%, and another 500m at 15%!

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This brutal stretch closes off at the signal station and widening of the road at the Collado de la Caballar. Of course with the previous 2km being the most brutal of the whole climb, Javier Guillén may prefer to finish the climb here than to continue to the Jitu; if he were to do so, the figures would be 12,9km @ 7,9%. Which, according to ASO's official stats, makes it the same gradient as Alpe d'Huez, but 900m shorter - though with a much higher maximum slope. Certainly the final 1600m from the Collado to the Jito de Escarandi are a long way from being imposing, but they aren't really a springboard to attack from, so for me it is ideal to go to the summit, as there will be a comparatively easy final 2km for the less featherweight climbers to try to claw back the gaps that those more adept on the really steep stuff can create on the slopes out of Sotres... and then the final 100m sees one final ramp up to 14% in case people are coming to the line together.

Now, Jitu d'Escarandí is a brother to Lagos de Covadonga, and as is well known, there has been much trouble in recent years trying to find sufficiently difficult run-in climbs to beef up the stage; Mirador del Fito, Collado del Moandi and Collada Llomena are perhaps the nearest to giving us genuine lead-in climbs, but they are still far enough from the base of Covadonga to mean that it's a one-climb stage in terms of meaningful racing. And yes, this problem affects Jitu too. Though the road descends, it is a dead end, running to the Cantabrian village of Tresviso but no further. The Alto del Ortigueiro, 3rd category in the 2008 Vuelta, is the nearest, as if we climb the easiest side we can descend to around 5-10km from the base of the final mountain. This could follow Alto de la Torneria from its hardest side, which would be a perfectly reasonable category 2 climb. It's hard to see much that could top that as a run-in, unfortunately, so this would likely be a one-climb stage.
 
Re:

Libertine Seguros said:
Fuente del Chivo is ESP category and Jitu d'Escarandí isn't? These categorizations are ridiculous. This is a proper hard climb, and it's the brother of the vaunted and legendary Lagos de Covadonga. In a more realistic world, Fuente del Chivo is 1st category. This is ESP.

Here's what I wrote about the climb on the "21 ESP climbs the Vuelta should be using" thread:
...

Always enjoy your write-ups.

How do you feel about the way this climb was used in the stage? Could there have been a better combination with other climbs in the stage? Could there have been a better route for the middle of the 3-day mountain romp?
 
Re: Re:

More Strides than Rides said:
Libertine Seguros said:
Fuente del Chivo is ESP category and Jitu d'Escarandí isn't? These categorizations are ridiculous. This is a proper hard climb, and it's the brother of the vaunted and legendary Lagos de Covadonga. In a more realistic world, Fuente del Chivo is 1st category. This is ESP.

Here's what I wrote about the climb on the "21 ESP climbs the Vuelta should be using" thread:
...

Always enjoy your write-ups.

How do you feel about the way this climb was used in the stage? Could there have been a better combination with other climbs in the stage? Could there have been a better route for the middle of the 3-day mountain romp?
Like Covadonga (although that can be linked to Mohandi and Llomena to give a tougher stage, there would still be some distance flat before the final climb) Jitu kind of stands alone rising out of the foothills of the Picos, so there isn't really much more that the course designers could have done. I guess they could have gone south from Comillas and done a bunch of those cat.2 climbs in Cantabria before around 30k flat then Jitu (either Soplao-Ozalba-Hoz or Carmona-Ozalba-Hoz), but realistically there is no getting around that you can't put a hard enough climb next to this one to make it anything but all about the final MTF.

As such, I don't think it's too bad a stage, because the final climb is tough enough that there will be gaps. If they'd put this stage AFTER the mighty multi-climb opus on Monday, it would have been more likely to neutralize the racing that day because of concern about the tough final MTF (much as fear of the La Pandera slopes in a one-climb stage neutralized much of the racing on Velefique and Sierra Nevada in 2009). Fuente del Chivo is not a climb that allows for long-distance moves and so it doesn't really matter if a bit of racing is neutralized by fear of the days to come (maybe that's why they over-categorized it as ESP to try and entice people to race it harder). I honestly don't have a problem with the stage design here, as riders will have to go all out on the climb as it's a tough one, but as it's an MTF it can't be paralyzed by fear of the next day; the GC gaps will then be set so that people have to make moves on the multi-climb day.

It therefore falls between two of the great recent examples of this formula - the 2010 Vuelta used this formula with similar stages where Lagos de Covadonga saw the gaps produced as it's legendary and tough, and then these were fought out on the hardest overall stage, the Cotobello one won by Nieve after the Euskaltel mountain team time trial; the 2011 Giro had the Großglockner with the comparatively gentle (but still tough) MTF, then they had the effective one-climb stage to Zoncolan (all stages to Zonc are about the final climb, at least once Crostis was removed), but Zoncolan is too tough not to produce gaps; the brutality meant that there were some very tired legs ahead of the multi-climb stage to Rifugio Gardeccia the following day (once more Nieve won, because Mikel Nieve is awesome). This course is better designed for long-distance racing on the queen stage (Cobertoria should see action from the likes of Quintana if today is anything to go by) than Cotobello, but the preceding MTF to Jitu is not as tough as Zonc so legs won't be as tired.

So no problem with the individual stages. Not keen on the trio being Sat-Sun-Mon instead of Fri-Sat-Sun though, meaning they put the one-climb stages on the weekend, and the race most likely to see more than an hour of action while the audience is at work...
 
Aug 31, 2012
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Re:

Escarabajo said:
It should be a good one. I wonder when Tom is going to crack? we might never see him crack.
In the last third of the TT after having set an infernal pace.
 
Re: Re:

ice&fire said:
Velolover2 said:
hrotha said:
Another stage that looks like it was designed so that nobody moves before the last 2-3 km.
I'm expecting Quintana to make a move with 9k to go. He has to do so.
I'm expecting he doesn't stop attacking until Monday's stage finish.

And I'm hoping Valverde doesn't come back to life or else I can see Quintana having to sit up and wait for him, which would be a real disappointment.