2016 Vuelta a España, stage 11: Colunga > Peña Cabarga

[Flamin]

Km 168.6 - Peña Cabarga - 5.6km a 9.8% - categoría 1

After the rest day in Oviedo, the riders leave Asturias and await a long ride along the coast towards Cantabria. At the end waits another murito, the 4th uphill finish in a row. Peña Cabarga has made quite the impact since its reintroduction in 2010. On the run-in, race leader Antón crashed out of the race, meanwhile Purito countered an attack from Nibali with 1.5km to go and won the stage.

2011 saw an epic battle between Cobo and Froome. In 2013 Horner not only gained very important time on Nibali in GC, but surprisingly also outdid Purito on his own territory.

Can anyone beat Nairito this year? Though a break is likely since only Movistar may show interest in the stage and bonus seconds.

Weather
Perfect weather for a bike on the day. Temperatures in the lower 20's °C and a cool wind blowing from the sea. Not strong enough for a possible coup though I guess.

Top-10 GC
1. QUINTANA Nairo 7 MOVISTAR TEAM 38h 37' 07''
2. VALVERDE Alejandro 1 MOVISTAR TEAM 38h 38' 04'' + 00' 57''
3. FROOME Christopher 21 TEAM SKY 38h 38' 05'' + 00' 58''
4. CHAVES Johan Esteban 51 ORICA BIKEEXCHANGE 38h 39' 16'' + 02' 09''
5. CONTADOR Alberto 11 TINKOFF 38h 40' 01'' + 02' 54''
6. KONIG Leopold 26 TEAM SKY 38h 40' 04'' + 02' 57''
7. DE LA CRUZ David 133 ETIXX - QUICK STEP 38h 40' 10'' + 03' 03''
8. YATES Simon 59 ORICA BIKEEXCHANGE 38h 40' 13'' + 03' 06''
9. SCARPONI Michele 61 ASTANA PRO TEAM 38h 40' 21'' + 03' 14''
10. SANCHEZ GONZALEZ Samuel 37 BMC RACING TEAM 38h 40' 27'' + 03' 20''

 

[TMP402]

Another "Froome stage". If this is still a contest, Froome needs to get some time back.

 

[jsem94]

Froome to yoyo win this climb by 2 seconds over Nairo.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

2011 saw an epic battle between Cobo and Froome. In 2013 Horner not only gained very important time on Nibali in GC, but surprisingly also beat Purito for the stage win.

Kiriyenka disagrees

 

[Cookster15]

This is where the Tour would have a flat sprinters stage but the Vuelta instead puts in a beast of a little climb at the finish.

It seems this Vuelta is down to two men. This stage might go to a break with 160km of flat preceding the MTF.

 

[silvergrenade]

Re:

Another "Froome stage". If this is still a contest, Froome needs to get some time back.

Can he?
I mean, he generally likes the stage to be hard all the way to the finish; a day of attrition is what he "likes" to do well.
Everybody will be fresh wih doing just 160 Ks of flat.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Fraile, Felline, Bakelants and Laengen will be in the break. Fraile vs Felline for the win.

 

[Flamin]

2011 saw an epic battle between Cobo and Froome. In 2013 Horner not only gained very important time on Nibali in GC, but surprisingly also beat Purito for the stage win.

Kiriyenka disagrees

Ah yes of course. Stupid breaks winning MTF's... fixed it.

 

[DFA123]

Will be interesting to see if Quintana is content to just mark now or whether he wants to increase his lead further. Based on today and La Camperona he can win this race whichever way he wants to. I wonder if Valverde will be a factor in the decision making as well - an early Quintana attack which splits up the race may not be to his advantage.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re:

This is where the Tour would have a flat sprinters stage but the Vuelta instead puts in a beast of a little climb at the finish.

It seems this Vuelta is down to two men. This stage might go to a break with 160km of flat preceding the MTF.

It's not really a "little" climb either, this is a tougher version of Planche des Belles Filles. Good for crowds too, as it's very easily accessible from Santander.

silvergrenade,
Froome likes Unipuerto stages - La Covatilla, PSM, Mont Ventoux, those were his bag. Back as far as 2011, the one time he had trouble was on the La Farrapona stage where he lost time on San Lorenzo then rode himself back in and was then one of the best on the MTF, but Wiggins started to falter which allowed Cobo to ride over to de la Fuente who had been in the break. On La Manzaneda he dropped time not because he was weak but because they sacrificed him, because at that point he was a total unknown quantity and the team were as surprised as anybody at just how strong he was and wanted to capture that lightning in a bottle in case his form collapsed again - there was nothing in 3 years to judge his recovery against, and no performances at that kind of level to tell them how likely he was to keep going, so they toasted him for Wiggins, at that point the more proven commodity.

DFA,
I think Quintana wants more time ahead of Calpe but it will depend on how his legs feel (and how his opposition's do) as the race goes on. Somewhere like Peña Cabarga, if he feels good, Valverde can anchor any chase of an attack Nairito makes, but if he doesn't, then a stage finish like this that suits Valverde can at least let him steal any bonus seconds from Froome or anybody else who attacks. I think the onus will now be on Valverde to play anchor, which will suit Valverde down to the ground because annulling moves and then sprinting is usually his plan A when he IS the leader.

 

[Tank Engine]

Well, it's the day after the first rest day, so you might think that the GC guys will be up for a stage win as well. On the other hand, the following days are real days of attrition. I think Movistar have bigger fish to fry and no-one will want to help them chase a break. I think that there will be a strong break, from which the stage winner will come. Fraile and Stybar might fancy this one.

I think Quintana will still be looking to put time into the Alien. If there is going to be a serious GC fight, the Alien should keep close to Stoneface, but I expect him to be on the defence against Nairo.

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

Another "Froome stage". If this is still a contest, Froome needs to get some time back.

Can he?
I mean, he generally likes the stage to be hard all the way to the finish; a day of attrition is what he "likes" to do well.
Everybody will be fresh wih doing just 160 Ks of flat.

Haven't all of his amazing peformances come in one-climb stages, or at least easy stages before a climb? Not many great performances on attritional stages than I can remember

 

[Amnes2015]

Froome will finish s.t. with Quintana, win from the break.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I love Pena Cabarga, it always delivers.

Nobody will help Movistar and I very much doubt they will control the break on a day like this. Quintana to gain 10 seconds on Froome.

 

[yaco]

Will be two races - Breakaway and GC race.

 

[Mr.White]

If Froome yo-yo's again he'll concede couple of seconds, 10-15 the most. But if he attacks time loss will be much bigger. Breakaway will not succeed only if Froome gets some silly ideas

 

[SafeBet]

It would be nice to see someone like Meintjes or Latour get in the break instead of being the 25th best climber of the GC group.

Movistar won't waste too much energy on this stage unless there are dangerous riders in the break. This week stages could be very tough to control.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Re:

It would be nice to see someone like Meintjes or Latour get in the break instead of being the 25th best climber of the GC group.

Yes. I have nothing against Bakelants and Domont, but AG2R has better options. I'm also sad to see Péraud just hanging on in the 3rd GC group. It's your last year, go crazy Jicé!

 

[silvergrenade]

Re:

I love Pena Cabarga, it always delivers.

Nobody will help Movistar and I very much doubt they will control the break on a day like this. Quintana to gain 10 seconds on Froome.

Please NO!
Let them come together with Froome in front.
This is where Froomey was born. This is his mountain.

 

[StryderHells]

Re: Re:

It would be nice to see someone like Meintjes or Latour get in the break instead of being the 25th best climber of the GC group.

Yes. I have nothing against Bakelants and Domont, but AG2R has better options. I'm also sad to see Péraud just hanging on in the 3rd GC group. It's your last year, go crazy Jicé!

Latour is here for the experience and AG2R most likely have a stage or 2 later in the race picked out for him to head out into a break, the same would go for Riblon and Peraud which is why we would have seen Bakelants and Domont being so active leading into the 1st rest day. I wonder how much Meintjes has left in the legs to go after a stage win after his Tour performance.

Oh and someone from the break will take this stage.

 

[SeriousSam]

One of the mythical climbs where The Great One's ascent to GC supremacy began in 2011. Should be a close duel against the young Colombian, with lesser riders reduced to watching the spectacle unfold from a distance

 

[Lexman]

Froome FTW, reborn after the restday

Quintana to lose 15 seconds after a big yo yo from Froomie

Contador to lose 45 seconds

Valverder to lose 1 minute due to a mechanical otherwise he would have been with Froome...

Chaves at 1:05

 

[veji11]

Re: Re:

It would be nice to see someone like Meintjes or Latour get in the break instead of being the 25th best climber of the GC group.

Yes. I have nothing against Bakelants and Domont, but AG2R has better options. I'm also sad to see Péraud just hanging on in the 3rd GC group. It's your last year, go crazy Jicé!

Re Péraud, after a tough beginning of the Vuelta he finished 9th of the leader's group yesterday. His form is ticking up, his motivation probably too, and he could start picking up on guys faltering and aim for the bottom of the top 10. It would be a nice way to finish his career.

 

[hfer07]

Its all about Nairito vs Yo-Yo-man

SKY has regained confidence in his man, so they will set up the conditions for another epic Yo-Yo pacing and of course the infamous Yo-Yo peddling display will yet again shock the world...

Nairito will do his thing, while having his best ally Don Alejandro keeping an eye on Yo-Yo-man if the situation calls for it.

 

[jens_attacks]

i hope movistar goes for the stage win here too. not a stage very hard to control

anyway, i believe that contador will be the strongest.