2016 Vuelta a España, stage 12: Corrales de Buelna > Bilbao

[Flamin]

Km 49.0 - Pto. de las Alisas 10 km a 6% - categoría 1
Km 89.4 - Alto La Escrita 6.4 km a 4.5% - categoría 3
Km 151.0 - Alto El Vivero 4.2 km a 8.5% - categoría 2
Km 180.3 - Alto El Vivero 4.2 km a 8.5% - categoría 2

*Until the 4.7km mark

A very similar stage to the one in the 2011 Vuelta, also finishing in Bilbao and including Vivero twice. A very memorable and emotional stage since the Vuelta's last visit to the País Vasco at that point was in 1978! A Basque rider simply had to win, and that's what Antón did from a break, in front of an amazing home crowd. He said it was the most beautiful win in his career, above Zoncolan.

Matthews won more or less the same stage in the 2015 Vuelta al País Vasco in a reduced bunch sprint.

It's most likely going to be won by a break again this year. There's a clear favourite for me, but I'm waiting to put his name down until I've placed a bet on him

Weather
Nice 27°C with a 3 bft wind blowing from the north. Dry all day.

Top-10 GC
1. QUINTANA Nairo 7 MOVISTAR TEAM 42h 21' 48''
2. FROOME Christopher 21 TEAM SKY 42h 22' 42'' + 00' 54''
3. VALVERDE Alejandro 1 MOVISTAR TEAM 42h 22' 53'' + 01' 05''
4. CHAVES Johan Esteban 51 ORICA BIKEEXCHANGE 42h 24' 22'' + 02' 34''
5. CONTADOR Alberto 11 TINKOFF 42h 24' 56'' + 03' 08''
6. KONIG Leopold 26 TEAM SKY 42h 24' 57'' + 03' 09''
7. YATES Simon 59 ORICA BIKEEXCHANGE 42h 25' 13'' + 03' 25''
8. SCARPONI Michele 61 ASTANA PRO TEAM 42h 25' 22'' + 03' 34''
9. DE LA CRUZ David 133 ETIXX - QUICK STEP 42h 25' 33'' + 03' 45''
10. SANCHEZ GONZALEZ Samuel 37 BMC RACING TEAM 42h 25' 44'' + 03' 56''

 

[carton]

Probably not much here, my bet's Felline, but someone like Yates or Chaves might just get away on that last climb. Also, can someone tell Nairo not to grab a bottle on that descent. Thanks.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: 2016 Vuelta a España, stage 12: Corrales de Buelna > Bil

Maybe Contador will try something. He doesn't have anything to lose, there is a flat stage on the next day and he really needs time. Put one or two riders into the break so they can help him after the top of the last climb and it might work.

 

[DFA123]

Re: 2016 Vuelta a España, stage 12: Corrales de Buelna > Bil

Maybe Contador will try something. He doesn't have anything to lose, there is a flat stage on the next day and he really needs time. Put one or two riders into the break so they can help him after the top of the last climb and it might work.

Even if he could get away, I think Orica and Astana have enough fire power to chase him and a couple of helpers down in the run into the finish. He's probably better off waiting for the Aubisque stage and hoping Chaves and Valverde both crack a bit, like they did at times in the Giro.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: 2016 Vuelta a España, stage 12: Corrales de Buelna > Bil

It's most likely going to be won by a break again this year. There's a clear favourite for me, but I'm waiting to put his name down until I've placed a bet on him

What chance of winning do you give this specific rider? In percentage?

 

[Tank Engine]

Re:

Probably not much here, my bet's Felline, but someone like Yates or Chaves might just get away on that last climb. Also, can someone tell Nairo not to grab a bottle on that descent. Thanks.

Felline was way down today. On the basis of that and his form in the first week, he was resting up to get the freedom to go in tomorrow's break, which is ideal for Mr. All-Rounder.

 

[Billie]

A rider ever won a stage in a town/city with same name as him?

 

[carton]

Re:

A rider ever won a stage in a town/city with same name as him?

LeMond won the Championnat du Monde, FWTW.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: 2016 Vuelta a España, stage 12: Corrales de Buelna > Bil

Maybe Contador will try something. He doesn't have anything to lose, there is a flat stage on the next day and he really needs time. Put one or two riders into the break so they can help him after the top of the last climb and it might work.

Would be nice to see, I don't expect it though.

 

[Brullnux]

Brambilla seemed to rest up today, was 9th in GC and is now below the top 20, so I imagine he wants space to get in the break tomorrow or Friday.

 

[classicomano]

Gilbert from a break.

 

[Flamin]

Re: 2016 Vuelta a España, stage 12: Corrales de Buelna > Bil

It's most likely going to be won by a break again this year. There's a clear favourite for me, but I'm waiting to put his name down until I've placed a bet on him

What chance of winning do you give this specific rider? In percentage?

No idea. He needs to make it in the break first because the first hour is going to be mayhem again no doubt.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Don't forget that Antón is from Galdakao, at the base of El Vivero, and he attacked in his hometown on the climb he grew up riding, for added bonus points. It was the headline story of the news (not the sports news, the main news) on ETB that night, and if I remember rightly several replays were shown in full all through the night.

Kevin Lebréton won a stage of the Kreizh Breizh Elites in 2014 if that's any help.

 

[Sciatic]

Re: 2016 Vuelta a España, stage 12: Corrales de Buelna > Bil

Maybe Contador will try something. He doesn't have anything to lose, there is a flat stage on the next day and he really needs time. Put one or two riders into the break so they can help him after the top of the last climb and it might work.

That's not a bad call . . . the last 4 riders to finish the stage today were all Tinkoff riding in together . . . clearly making it a 2d rest day for them before some fireworks ahead. Tomorrow? Or Saturday?

 

[ThePirate81]

Re: 2016 Vuelta a España, stage 12: Corrales de Buelna > Bil

It's most likely going to be won by a break again this year. There's a clear favourite for me, but I'm waiting to put his name down until I've placed a bet on him

What chance of winning do you give this specific rider? In percentage?

No idea. He needs to make it in the break first because the first hour is going to be mayhem again no doubt.

Is he Brambilla?

 

[yaco]

This looks a suitable stage for Gilbert,especially with the descent finish.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: 2016 Vuelta a España, stage 12: Corrales de Buelna > Bil

It's most likely going to be won by a break again this year. There's a clear favourite for me, but I'm waiting to put his name down until I've placed a bet on him

What chance of winning do you give this specific rider? In percentage?

No idea. He needs to make it in the break first because the first hour is going to be mayhem again no doubt.

How are you gonna make a bet with a positive expected value if you don't have any idea what chances you give him of winning? Lol

 

[Valv.Piti]

Good job on these threads, Flamin. Enjoying the information and the little write-ups.

I like the stage. Not hard enough to be GC-relevant, but should be a good battle in the break.

 

[Flamin]

Re:

It's most likely going to be won by a break again this year. There's a clear favourite for me, but I'm waiting to put his name down until I've placed a bet on him

What chance of winning do you give this specific rider? In percentage?

No idea. He needs to make it in the break first because the first hour is going to be mayhem again no doubt.

How are you gonna make a bet with a positive expected value if you don't have any idea what chances you give him of winning? Lol

I meant no idea how to put that in percentage. Like half the peloton will want to be in that break and much depends on who's in the break with him (assuming he's in). In some breaks I'd give him 90%, in another one 70% etc etc. Impossible to give it a meaningful % I'd say but obviously I fancy him in most breaks.

Good job on these threads, Flamin. Enjoying the information and the little write-ups.

No problem. Glad it is appreciated

 

[Valv.Piti]

Credit where credit is due

 

[Tank Engine]

Re: 2016 Vuelta a España, stage 12: Corrales de Buelna > Bil

That's not a bad call . . . the last 4 riders to finish the stage today were all Tinkoff riding in together . . . clearly making it a 2d rest day for them before some fireworks ahead. Tomorrow? Or Saturday?

Tinkoff chased the break down. Did you see the stage or is this sarcasm?

p.s. with regard to my Felline prediction, I forgot that Gilbert is riding. It's a good day for him.

 

[Sykes]

Risking everything in the breakaway win

 

[liamito]

Re:

Risking everything in the breakaway win

By picking a guy who won just once in his career of 13 years?

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re:

Risking everything in the breakaway win

Why Riblon?

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

Risking everything in the breakaway win

Felline could well win from a reduced bunch.