2016 Vuelta a España, stage 15: Sabiñánigo > Aramón Formigal

[Flamin]

Km 41.3 - Alto de Petralba 6.3 km a 5% - categoría 3
Km 76.5 - Alto de Cotefablo 12.5 km a 4.3% - categoría 2
Km 97 - Alto de Bubal 6,2 km a 4 % (uncategorized)
Km 118.5 - Aramón Formigal 14.5 km a 4.6% - categoría 1

After la etapa reina, the shortest stage of this year's Vuelta. It's kind of an unpredictable stage because of its length. Sky would obviously be happy to let a break go, but what will Movistar do? Wait until the 3rd week or seize every opportunity? Considering Quintana's great recovery, I'd say why not give it a go after a big mountain stage.

Remember Formigal was also a MTF the day after the Peyragudes stage in 2013 and Nibali lost almost half a minute to Purito, Valverde and Horner.

Top-10 GC
1. QUINTANA Nairo 7 MOVISTAR TEAM 58h 41' 40''
2. FROOME Christopher 21 TEAM SKY 58h 42' 34'' + 00' 54''
3. CHAVES Johan Esteban 51 ORICA BIKEEXCHANGE 58h 43' 41'' + 02' 01''
4. YATES Simon 59 ORICA BIKEEXCHANGE 58h 43' 57'' + 02' 17''
5. KONIG Leopold 26 TEAM SKY 58h 44' 18'' + 02' 38''
6. CONTADOR Alberto 11 TINKOFF 58h 45' 08'' + 03' 28''
7. SANCHEZ GONZALEZ Samuel 37 BMC RACING TEAM 58h 45' 39'' + 03' 59''
8. TALANSKY Andrew 141 CANNONDALE-DRAPAC PRO CYCLING TEAM 58h 46' 10'' + 04' 30''
9. SCARPONI Michele 61 ASTANA PRO TEAM 58h 47' 17'' + 05' 37''
10. MORENO FERNANDEZ Daniel 6 MOVISTAR TEAM 58h 47' 32'' + 05' 52''

 

[Kwibus]

The day with the shitty climbs. Not much will happen.

 

[Inquitus]

Hard to see big gaps on this one, should favour Froome more than today, looks hard for Quintana to gain time tomorrow,

 

[bob.a.feet]

The climbs are pretty much flat and the distance is laughable.

 

[Red Rick]

This is what you get when try to rip off the Fuente De stage and fail horribly, terribly, and absimally. Besides that it is fine

 

[Dazed and Confused]

On paper it looks like Knees could single handily drive the peloton all the way to a GC related stage win, but lets see what happens.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Formigal is a pretty lame climb, but it will forever have some legend, which you should all make yourselves aware of. This was the first 'true' MTF in the history of the Vuelta, in the 1972 edition, and was one of the greatest exhibitions of climbing in the history of Spanish cycling, and when you consider how much of Spanish cycling lore has been built around its escaladores despite the often unfavourable parcours up to that point - from Vicente Trueba, Fermín Trueba, Jesús Loroño, Federico Bahamontes, Julio Jiménez, José Manuel Fuente, Luís Ocaña, Vicente López Carril, Ángel Arroyo, Alberto Fernández, Pedro Delgado, José María Jiménez and Roberto Heras to Alberto Contador.

 

[classicomano]

Brambilla from a break.

 

[hrotha]

Not sure what the point of this stage is. Surely it's too late for an early first week shuffle, Monte Sirino kind of showdown.

 

[carton]

Have to agree with most of the above, in that I don't see much happening before that last climb. Wide straight roads and gradual climbs nearly all the way, Cotefablo is too gentle to serve as a true springboard for attacks, and the descent into Biescas features a 4km false flat likely against a slight headwind. It won't reward aggressive racing.

However, I disagree with this being a Froome stage. Outside the flat initial loop back to Sabiñánigo, where the break will have to go if it is to get there, the whole stage is above 800 mamsl and pretty rolling. Aramón Formigal's tiny average gradient belies a long, grueling climb riddled with false flats.

Movistar can't get cute on this stage.They need to let the early break go early whoever's in it before smashing the heck out of this day. After that second pass through the start line they have to get Nairo as fast as they possibly can into Escarilla. That implies Valverde or Moreno emptying themselves through the slopes that lead to the base of the climb. And then they must let Nairito fly or fail, have him attack early and often, even if all of that means they burnt all nine of their riders for naught. The smart play isn't always the defensive play, even when you're wearing the leaders jersey. If they're really in this to win this, tomorrow is the day to let the chips fall where they may. After that it will be to late too do anything but hope Froome fails.

Though it's Movistar. I doubt they have the stones for it. In that case, nothing substantial happens, and Froomey wins the sprint and the stage.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Another breakaway win. I'll go for De Gendt.

 

[Sky train]

That final climb somewhat reminds me Fuente De

 

[DFA123]

Difficult to see who of the GC contenders would want to make action on this stage, and would have the ability to do so. Orica would possibly have most to gain from a chaotic, hard race, but will probably be too tired after today to do much.

Still, on such a short stage, with relatively little flat, you never know what may happen.

 

[jens_attacks]

horrible stage.

 

[carton]

BTW, great job, Flamin, of including the Formigal profile all the way from Biescas.

 

[Robert5091]

The only logic behind this stage's profile is for TV time for the sponsors Over 100 riders in the break as Moviestar, Sky & Orica take it easy. Anyone with some strength left over from the previous stage to win. (strangely I've a feeling someone's targeted this stage ... TJVG?)

 

[Richeypen]

No sure anyone can work out a good reason for this stage design.

Cue the best stage of the season ;-)

 

[Geraint Too Fast]

Re: 2016 Vuelta a España, stage 15: Sabiñánigo > Aramón Form

_O_

 

[Escarabajo]

I am not sure if agree with the other members here. This looks a little dangerous to me. Because:

1- It is short
2- After the queen stage everyone is tired.
3- Tactics with Oricagreenedge giving a fight could turn crucial.
4- This long lame climbs sometimes turn into disasters for the riders.

 

[TMP402]

Re:

Not sure what the point of this stage is.

The Vuelta needs a FFTF*.

*False Flat-Top Finish

 

[MikeTichondrius]

Re: 2016 Vuelta a España, stage 15: Sabiñánigo > Aramón Form

Expectations for this seem to be at Scheldeprijs levels.

As always, it depends on motivation mostly. Fuente Dé was supposed to be crap. The Grand Colombier stage was supposed to be a magnificent sawtooth stage. It's probably gonna be crap. But if someone feels like racing this...

 

[Lexman]

Orica might try to use the positif vibe to gain tome on AC and maybe gain some on NQ en CF and this could make the stage more interesting as the one of today.

Maybe Ac tries something...

OTOH it could a be really boring as well, hope for the best fear the worst

 

[Tank Engine]

At the end of the video highlights of Stage 15, there is a preview of Stage 16. It states that the final climb in 15km with an average of 8%. I thought "great a short mountain stage with a serious climb at the end", but where did they get that description of the finsal climb from?

Like others here, I'm left wondering what were the stage designers thinking about? I can't see Movistar having faith in Quintana to beat Froome here. I can't see that Sky will really be bothered after chasing today. I'll go for de Gendt.

On the other hand, the attrition from the last stage may leave its mark and their are opportunities for getting guys into a break to set up long range attacks, so it might turn out to be interesting (I hope). If not, the scenery will be impressive.

 

[liamito]

Just watched the latest Orica BSP. Yatesy suffers from motion sickness? Let's see how he shows up today. Maybe he went a little too deep.

 

[hfer07]

Re:

I am not sure if agree with the other members here. This looks a little dangerous to me. Because:

1- It is short
2- After the queen stage everyone is tired.
3- Tactics with Oricagreenedge giving a fight could turn crucial.
4- This long lame climbs sometimes turn into disasters for the riders.

Indeed. the stage appears to be easy but if it's ridden hard, some of the Top 10 riders can either gain time or tumble. A breakaway is likely to take it, depending on how ambitions & committed the top GC teams are to play their options....