2016 Vuelta a España, stage 17: Castellón > Mas de la Costa

[Flamin]

Km 20.0 - Alto del Desierto de las Palmas 7.3 km a 5.1% - categoría 2
Km 82.5 - Alto de la Serratella 14.5 km a 3.6% - categoría 2
Km 109.2 - Alto de Benasal 11.2 km a 3% - categoría 3
Km 177.5 - Llucena. Camins de Penyagolosa 3.8 km a 12.5% - categoría 1

After the rest day in Castellón, the Vuelta proudly presents a brand new murito. Mas de la Costa is a short but brutal climb. It's very regular: some 100m sections around or just below 10% where you can 'recover', but that's it. It's hell from bottom to top.

The rest of the stage ain't easy either, despite the lack of any real mountains. It's mostly up an down all day.

Most likely a win from the break. Movistar is happy with how it is, Sky doesn't have the strength to do anything, Contador has zero chance to win,...

Top-10 GC
1. QUINTANA Nairo 7 MOVISTAR TEAM 64h 57' 27''
2. FROOME Christopher 21 TEAM SKY 65h 01' 04'' + 03' 37''
3. CHAVES Johan Esteban 51 ORICA BIKEEXCHANGE 65h 01' 24'' + 03' 57''
4. CONTADOR Alberto 11 TINKOFF 65h 01' 29'' + 04' 02''
5. YATES Simon 59 ORICA BIKEEXCHANGE 65h 02' 34'' + 05' 07''
6. SANCHEZ GONZALEZ Samuel 37 BMC RACING TEAM 65h 03' 39'' + 06' 12''
7. TALANSKY Andrew 141 CANNONDALE-DRAPAC PRO CYCLING TEAM 65h 04' 10'' + 06' 43''
8. FORMOLO Davide 145 CANNONDALE-DRAPAC PRO CYCLING TEAM 65h 04' 44'' + 07' 17''
9. DE LA CRUZ David 133 ETIXX - QUICK STEP 65h 04' 50'' + 07' 23''
10. SCARPONI Michele 61 ASTANA PRO TEAM 65h 05' 06'' + 07' 39''

 

[LaFlorecita]

I can see Tinkoff and Orica work to bring back the break, Chaves and Contador will probably want a stage. Especially Chavito has a good chance IMO, he has looked good in the last few stages. But I too expect a break to take this.

 

[PremierAndrew]

If Sky have the strength to pull it back, they will. Bonus seconds will only help Froome at this point

 

[Laplaz]

Chaves ftw. The others to arrive together.

 

[DanielSong39]

Froome to lose time to Quintana, and perhaps to Chaves and Contador as well.

It would take a great performance for Froome to finish on the podium.

 

[DFA123]

Froome's going to crack big time.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: 2016 Vuelta a España, stage 17: Castellón > Mas de la Co

Quintana or Chaves ftw, Froome to lose some more time. He really didn't look good on Sunday, though the rest day might help him.

 

[carton]

Chaves for the win. Sky and Orica to keep it close for the bonus seconds. No use saving domestiques' legs for the time trial or for that lovely 12.5% climb.

 

[Anderis]

Re: 2016 Vuelta a España, stage 17: Castellón > Mas de la Co

I would love if Talansky could handle yet another finish that doesn't suit him as well as he did handle the La Camperona finish.

 

[Flamin]

Yeah, Orica might try to go for the stage, but they have a pretty bad team for a hilly stage. An allience with Sky is a possibility. Other than that, not really..

 

[DBotero]

Re: 2016 Vuelta a España, stage 17: Castellón > Mas de la Co

Froome will be keen to take another stage win as the overall is gone.Chavez&Yates will surely be interested in gaining time on Contador.

 

[Red Rick]

Only 22% max? Now I'm disappointed

 

[klintE]

I think Contador may also want to attack Chavez. Unnecessery IMO.
Wheelsuck now and fire up rocket in time trial.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

If Sky have the strength to pull it back, they will. Bonus seconds will only help Froome at this point

Unless he's more focused now on defending 2nd place. He's not going to beat Quintana unless Quintana crashes or absolutely implodes. Any bonus seconds will most likely be irrelevant to that.

Far more likely that any bonus seconds would influence 2nd, 3rd and 4th in the standings.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

I think Contador may also want to attack Chavez. Unnecessery IMO.
Wheelsuck now and fire up rocket in time trial.

Think it will be too steep for wheel sucking to be much use. Everyone is on their own on a climb like this; may the strongest guy win.

 

[klintE]

Do i know? Wheelsuck isn't only about aerodynamics.

Generally I mean he shouldn't try to attack cause there is no such need but his ambition may tell him something contrary.
Just like it was on Covadonga.

 

[Escarabajo]

@DFA, I think the point is that if Chaves des not attack Contador does not need to attack either because he will most likely not win the stage, will not win the race and will be on the podium in Madrid. But is not in his DNA.

 

[Angliru]

Re:

Froome to lose time to Quintana, and puerhaps to Chaves and Contador as well.

It would take a great performance for Froome to finish on the podium.

So you think Froome is broken physically and mentally? He still has the itt to distance Chaves and Contador. I don't think the results from yesterday will have an adverse affect on his remaining performance. His team should be rested after most of them slow rolled in yesterday.

 

[42x16ss]

Re:

Yeah, Orica might try to go for the stage, but they have a pretty bad team for a hilly stage. An allience with Sky is a possibility. Other than that, not really..

Simon Yates? Simon Gerrans?

Normally you wouldn't quite count Gerrans on a finish like this, but with his relative freshness compared to the rest, along with the form he's shown so far, it might not be out of the question if the stage is raced conservatively.

IMHO the favourite is Valverde.

 

[dacooley]

Re:

Froome's going to crack big time.

for some mysterious reason you post something like this before any vuelta big stage. a bit of negative bias involved?

 

[bambino]

This is for Contador's to lose. He has been really strong in 1st 4 km of any climb in Vuelta (we know what has happened after those 4km though) and actually throughout the year.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Froome's going to crack big time.

for some mysterious reason you post something like this before any vuelta big stage. a bit of negative bias involved?

Strange post. Pretty sure this is the first time I've posted this about Froome before a stage.

 

[Flamin]

Re: Re:

Yeah, Orica might try to go for the stage, but they have a pretty bad team for a hilly stage. An allience with Sky is a possibility. Other than that, not really..

Simon Yates? Simon Gerrans?

Normally you wouldn't quite count Gerrans on a finish like this, but with his relative freshness compared to the rest, along with the form he's shown so far, it might not be out of the question if the stage is raced conservatively.

IMHO the favourite is Valverde.

Yates is not a domestique. Who else than Gerrans?

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

This is for Contador's to lose. He has been really strong in 1st 4 km of any climb in Vuelta (we know what has happened after those 4km though) and actually throughout the year.

Actually he got dropped on all short climbs as well but it's the day after the rest day so who knows

 

[TourOfSardinia]

Re: Re:

This is for Contador's to lose. He has been really strong in 1st 4 km of any climb in Vuelta (we know what has happened after those 4km though) and actually throughout the year.

Actually he got dropped on all short climbs as well but it's the day after the rest day so who knows

And apparently I heard some where
Contador doesn't do rest days -
he does tough training rides instead.