2018 Giro d'Italia stage 8: Praia a Mare - Montevergine 209k

[Laplaz]

STAGE 8: Praia a Mare - Montevergine di Mercogliano 209 km

May 12th

Technical Overview:
The second Saturday of the race keeps heading north, making its way from the sea to the hills. The stage starts where it ended the previous day, and after ~40 km along the coast the peloton will go into the hills, with a couple of uncategorized climbs, that could have been at least GPM3. The first one measures 6.5 km at 5.4%, while the second is 5.5 km long at 6.1%, and is followed by an ascending false flat section at the top. After the descent and some more rolling terrain, the riders will reach the coast again, for 45 straight km until the town of Salerno, where they will head again towards the hills, this time for good. After the intermediate sprint, the road will gently start to rise, and after a somewhat serious ramp leading to Celzi, will lead the peloton to the Montevergine-style MTF of this edition. Which is... exactly that. The most famous Montevergine di Mercogliano (GPM2, 17.1 km at 5%), the very archetype of the longish, easy MTF that is typical of the end of a Giro's first week. Although it is used by most cycling fans as THE example of such easy finish, it has not actually been used that many times in the Giro. In fact, before being used 4 times between 2001 and 2011, it was a relatively unknown climb, only previously used in the 60's. With its 17.1 km at a steady 5%, it is much easier than the MTF the peloton already had on stage 6, which is why its inclusion at this point of the race is quite unnecessary...

Final km

The Climbs:
Montevergine di Mercogliano (GPM2, 17.1 km at 5%)
The one and only. Steady, regular, full of hairpins and with a nice Sanctuary at the top.

What to Expect:
Well, you should expect the outcome of pretty much every Montevergine finish: 20-30 men sprint. Anything better would be a surprise.

Santuario di Montevergine

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re: 2018 Giro d'Italia stage 8: Praia a Mare - Montevergine

Looks perfect for Tim Wellens.

I wonder if Battaglin can survive this.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: 2018 Giro d'Italia stage 8: Praia a Mare - Montevergine

These kind of mtf's are a little like the Flèche Wallone. You know nothing is gonna happen before the last kilometers, but you always hope that this is the year something will finally happen earlier so you watch the whole thing every time anyway.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: 2018 Giro d'Italia stage 8: Praia a Mare - Montevergine

Looks perfect for Tim Wellens.

I wonder if Battaglin can survive this.

Wellens yes... battaglin no way surely

 

[HelloDolly]

Its a breakaway for sure

 

[ruamruam]

Re: 2018 Giro d'Italia stage 8: Praia a Mare - Montevergine

These kind of mtf's are a little like the Flèche Wallone. You know nothing is gonna happen before the last kilometers, but you always hope that this is the year something will finally happen earlier so you watch the whole thing every time anyway.

Am I the only one who loves the finish of the Flèche Wallone? Normally I like to see a hard race where a break gets it but if a break were to fight it out for victory in the Flèche Wallone I think it would be an anti climax.

 

[tobydawq]

Re: 2018 Giro d'Italia stage 8: Praia a Mare - Montevergine

These kind of mtf's are a little like the Flèche Wallone. You know nothing is gonna happen before the last kilometers, but you always hope that this is the year something will finally happen earlier so you watch the whole thing every time anyway.

Am I the only one who loves the finish of the Flèche Wallone? Normally I like to see a hard race where a break gets it but if a break were to fight it out for victory in the Flèche Wallone I think it would be an anti climax.

Not the only one but there is not a lot of us, I think.

I'm completely with you that it would be anti-climactic if a break were to fight about it in FW (unless it was exciting whether or not they would get caught).

 

[Red Rick]

With the length of this climb I think it favours Yates more than anyone else.

But I wonder who's gonna control the peloton. It's a long stage, the last climb requires some manpower to control it, and it's not a final climb where a strong breakaway rider will lose much more than 2 minutes, if at all.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Well, Im sure Montevergine would be a hell of a lot better than the stages in Isreal and the one today.. just for the sole reason that people actually wanna race and get into the break on this stage since it isn't obvious to aboslutely everyone what is gonna happen. Then you obviously get the long drag which isn't the most interesting, but still decent enough for me to tune in 3-4 hours to watch the race, even though it isn't breathtaking by any means! Its also weekend after all. Because I don't know if the break will succeed, if the break will be a big one or a smaller one, who of the teams will be chasing a stage win if any, who looks good of the favourites etc etc. Lots of differents things, maybe minor, but its at least a reason to actually follow the race. Flat stages are not, simply put, aside from the last 10 km. And they are getting more and more boring, more and more monotous every year. More than 3 pure sprinter stages should be banned in any GT. Basically, just give me anything else and Ill watch. Honestly.

 

[Laplaz]

Yates said after the stage today that he won't ride for the stage win tomorrow, so he would be happy if a strong break goes clear. So i suggest the breakaway to take the win. Maybe Wellens? Well there could be rain (altough they were saying it since Wednesday), so why not.

 

[Ivan_Basso_77]

The pure climbers (Pozzo, Chaves, Lopez) will surely lose a bit of time if the fight for the stage win comes to a bunch sprint, which is the most likely scenario. Breakaway to make it to the finish is unlikely, yet not impossible. Maybe if there is rain the finale can become more a bit harder.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re: 2018 Giro d'Italia stage 8: Praia a Mare - Montevergine

These kind of mtf's are a little like the Flèche Wallone. You know nothing is gonna happen before the last kilometers, but you always hope that this is the year something will finally happen earlier so you watch the whole thing every time anyway.

Am I the only one who loves the finish of the Flèche Wallone? Normally I like to see a hard race where a break gets it but if a break were to fight it out for victory in the Flèche Wallone I think it would be an anti climax.

Not at all. Flèche is supposed to end with the best puncheurs in the world shooting it out on the Mur. It’s the one race that should be a guaranteed punch off, with no tactical complications except the decision when to make your charge. Complaining about it is like complaining that the Champs Elysee is a near guaranteed mass sprint.

The problem is that there are so many other races that end like that these days and in almost every other case the route should be changed to at least create other possible ways of winning. At least with Purito retired the Vuelta doesn’t have to include 18 such finishes every year.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re:

Yates said after the stage today that he won't ride for the stage win tomorrow, so he would be happy if a strong break goes clear. So i suggest the breakaway to take the win. Maybe Wellens? Well there could be rain (altough they were saying it since Wednesday), so why not.

I don’t really believe that. In his current form, Yates should be the absolute favourite in a field with no Valverde, Alaphilippe, Martin etc in it. For that matter Chaves is pretty decent in punchy finishes. Yates could put time into rivals and get bonus seconds and win a stage. It’s also not a particularly tough course where controlling a break would take a lot of effort.

They’d be fools not to put Yates in a position where he can take advantage of his current superiority. If he fades relative to others later in the race another 20 seconds might be very useful.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Re: 2018 Giro d'Italia stage 8: Praia a Mare - Montevergine

Would make much more sense as a MTT!

 

[Red Rick]

Re: 2018 Giro d'Italia stage 8: Praia a Mare - Montevergine

Would make much more sense as a MTT!

Dumoulin would murder it.

 

[Koronin]

Yates is the best of the puncheurs that are here, so it would be a perfect finish for him.

I also like Fleche Wallone and think it should come down to a fight among the best of the puncheurs.

La Vuelta has a bunch of these type of finishes because those are the more common type of climbs throughout Spain. Remember although Purito is retired, Valverde is still racing and unless injured will continue to race la Vuelta until he retires.

 

[Red Rick]

I really think a break will take it. Nobody is a big enough favorite to control a break all day. I actually think Wellens will just join the breakaway, but in that case I think few people will do to much work with him.

 

[Brullnux]

Re: 2018 Giro d'Italia stage 8: Praia a Mare - Montevergine

Looks perfect for Tim Wellens.

I wonder if Battaglin can survive this.

Wellens yes... battaglin no way surely

I don't know. Normally no, but in the Giro perhaps. In 2016 he was Kruijswijk's best domestique and was probably climbing within the top 25 riders on a couple of the stages. He also occasionally comes up with very good performances in harder stages, like Andalo last year and that stage to Oropa he won from from the break, beating some very good riders (Cataldo, Roche, Polanc, Pantano - in fact, he also beat Wellens). So probably not, but it depends on how many riders there are at the end. More than 40, then definitely. Less than 20, then no chance. 30? Potentially.

Yates could also do really well here, but it might not be steep enough.

 

[Poursuivant]

Breakaway win.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: 2018 Giro d'Italia stage 8: Praia a Mare - Montevergine

Looks perfect for Tim Wellens.

I wonder if Battaglin can survive this.

Wellens yes... battaglin no way surely

I don't know. Normally no, but in the Giro perhaps. In 2016 he was Kruijswijk's best domestique and was probably climbing within the top 25 riders on a couple of the stages. He also occasionally comes up with very good performances in harder stages, like Andalo last year and that stage to Oropa he won from from the break, beating some very good riders (Cataldo, Roche, Polanc, Pantano - in fact, he also beat Wellens). So probably not, but it depends on how many riders there are at the end. More than 40, then definitely. Less than 20, then no chance. 30? Potentially.

Yates could also do really well here, but it might not be steep enough.

Yates would do very well by virtue of being brutally strong if anything. Freshness after a 17km climb matters a bit.

 

[GraftPunk]

I'm thinking no breakaway success, and no Yates win. One of the purer climbers will probably take it jumping on the 3k to go. Dumo, Froome, et al. will probably have S.T. as this is a diesel climb with few attack ramps.

 

[Sestriere]

If this is decided from the group of favourites on the final climb, there are several scenarios:
1. One team decides to ride really fast uphill and a group of 10 to 15 sprint for the win. In this case Pinot, Yates or Bilbao are the favourites.
2. It's ridden rather steady but or some reason noone escapes an there is a group sprint of 30-ish riders. In this case I would back Wellens or Schachmann.
3. The tempo is steady and a second or third rate climber wins with an attack in the last kilometers, for example Hermans or Formolo.

Regarding 1, I don't know which team would want to ride hard with Gran Sasso looming in the distance (or those that would do it probably can't). Also, I think 3 is more likely than 2, in this case, though, you would wonder why a team had controlled all day only to allow such a move.

The two most likely scenarios for me would be either an early break wins or Astana needs something to keep the morale high and Sanchez, Kangert or Bilbao win by a late attack.

So, now that I've got everything covered, Froome will probably destroy the field

 

[Pantani_lives]

The Montevergine isn't steep enough to create gaps between the top GC riders. A question is whether Mitchelton-S will ride to defend the pink jersey. I think a breakaway is possible, otherwise a sprint with a small group, with small gaps in the final km. Favorites: Ulissi, Wellens, Yates, Pozzovivo...

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Re: 2018 Giro d'Italia stage 8: Praia a Mare - Montevergine

These kind of mtf's are a little like the Flèche Wallone. You know nothing is gonna happen before the last kilometers, but you always hope that this is the year something will finally happen earlier so you watch the whole thing every time anyway.

Make that 300-400 meters.....

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Breakaway FTW. Wellens vs Battaglin part 3.