Giro d'Italia 2022 Giro d'Italia, Stage 1: Budapest – Visegrád 195 km (Friday, May 6th)

[Netserk]

From @Eshnar's excellent 2022 Giro d'Italia: Stage-by-stage Analysis thread:https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/2022-giro-ditalia-stage-by-stage-analysis.37819/post-2691557

Stage 1: Budapest – Visegrád 195 km
Friday, May 6th, 12:20 CET

Technical Overview:
The Grande Partenza of 2022 starts with an unusual road stage. From Budapest, the peloton will go through a wide clockwise loop on mostly flat terrain, with the two intermediate sprints as the only focal points. Upon reaching the Danube, the riders will follow it until the town of Visegrád, where the final stretch of road begins. The finishing line is located all the way up, at the Royal Palace. The road to get there is the first categorized climb of this Giro, Visegrád (GPM4, 5.6km at 4.2%), a steady climb that should not produce gaps among the favourites, but will definitely favour the puncheurs and provide a worthy first Maglia Rosa.

Final Kms:

The Climbs:

Visegrád: GPM4, 5.6km at 4.2%
A very simple uphill finish that should be just enough to make things interesting for the first Maglia Rosa battle. The profile is in the Final km section.

What to expect:
A puncheur to win, maybe even with a couple seconds gap. No GC relevant gaps, excluding possible crashes, of course.

Visegrád Castle

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Should be perfect for Van der Poel honestly

 

[Amazinmets87]

40% Van der Poel, 20% Valverde, 40% remainder of peloton.

 

[Lequack]

Girmay will win this.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

As long as Van der Poel gets the positioning right there is nobody who will beat him here.

 

[Red Rick]

As long as Van der Poel gets the positioning right there is nobody who will beat him here.

Oh ***

 

[Red Rick]

Doesn't look too technical but quite a few sweeping corners?

 

[AlfaLum]

Van der Poel will win this. For the GC contenders it is a problem that he is competing because they might loose additional seconds to other competitors if they can’t hold the wheel.

 

[SafeBet]

Vincenzo Albanese will stun the world and outsprint MvdP.

By the way I'll be in Budapest on Friday but will not travel to Visegrad.

 

[MADRAZO]

Quite similar and not much harder than Poggio. If he has his climbing legs back I think Ewan will be hard to beat for MVDP and Girmay here.

 

[SHAD0W93]

I feel like a small group will form with Valverde and MVDP with MAL benefitting with one of his late attacks.

 

[SafeBet]

I feel like a small group will form with Valverde and MVDP with MAL benefitting with one of his late attacks.

I think this is the type of finish where MAL can randomly lose 20 seconds.

 

[SHAD0W93]

I think this is the type of finish where MAL can randomly lose 20 seconds.

That is also a very likely possibility.

 

[Red Rick]

I think this is the type of finish where MAL can randomly lose 20 seconds.

I dont think its technical enough for that

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

Quite similar and not much harder than Poggio. If he has his climbing legs back I think Ewan will be hard to beat for MVDP and Girmay here.

Getting over a climb is different to winning at the top of it. Admittedly, he did crest the Poggio in like 4th position in 2021 but I think he'll need a lot of contenders to look at each other instead of making a move in order to win this. If he would have a Quickstep 2021 leadout I could see it but I think he'll get swallowed in the leadup by all the puncheurs.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Quite similar and not much harder than Poggio. If he has his climbing legs back I think Ewan will be hard to beat for MVDP and Girmay here.

The sprint is still significantly uphill. Ewan will not be a match

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

40% Van der Poel, 20% Valverde, 40% remainder of peloton.

Seems about accurate. For the 40% others, I hope it'll be Girmay

 

[Samamba]

The sprint is still significantly uphill. Ewan will not be a match

An uphill sprint is not a problem for Ewan at all. He loves them. But I really doubt he will be able to follow the whole climb. He definitely didn't have his best climbing legs in Turkey. And even if he has a really good day, with LTS keeping their best guys out of the Giro to score points and De Buyst being injured he won't have teammates there anymore (apart from maybe Moniquet). He is going to need to be incredibly good and lucky to win this.

 

[Mayomaniac]

I dont think its technical enough for that

Since when has that ever stopped MAL from loosing time on a punchy uphill finish?

 

[Jumbo Visma Fan :)]

VDP vs Bala will be the top two in no particular order, with third coming from Girmay.

 

[MADRAZO]

The sprint is still significantly uphill. Ewan will not be a match

I dont think those percentages are a problem at all, remember the stage in 2019 where Carapaz won by a soloattack but where Ewan were clearly the strongest and fastest. That climb was shorter though (with the rest of the stage harder) so it could be too long, but then again its not much worse than Poggio where he would be the favourite to win on top if in topform. But Its definetly a big risk that his form is not good enough at the moment after his problems and he would need to be in his best climbingform to win. We must see.

 

[yaco]

Based on Ewan's Tour of Turkey form when he was lacking top end speed, while one of his stage victories was on an uphill finish, along with greater fitness then he's a chance on stage 1.

 

[Red Rick]

Since when has that ever stopped MAL from loosing time on a punchy uphill finish?

Dunno. But its also not steep enough forba lot of gaps.

I suspect his problem is more that he gets fried by flat run in at 60kph+

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Carapaz can win this stage, he loves this type of finish. And of course Diego Ulissi cannot be forgotten

 

[ice&fire]

I dont think those percentages are a problem at all, remember the stage in 2019 where Carapaz won by a soloattack but where Ewan were clearly the strongest and fastest. That climb was shorter though (with the rest of the stage harder) so it could be too long, but then again its not much worse than Poggio where he would be the favourite to win on top if in topform. But Its definetly a big risk that his form is not good enough at the moment after his problems and he would need to be in his best climbingform to win. We must see.

There were many strong riders out of contention that day because of crashes in the final kms