Giro d'Italia 2022 Giro d'Italia, Stage 10: Pescara – Jesi 196 km (Tuesday, May 17th)

From @Eshnar's excellent 2022 Giro d'Italia: Stage-by-stage Analysis thread: https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/2022-giro-ditalia-stage-by-stage-analysis.37819/#post-2691568

Stage 10: Pescara – Jesi 196 km
Tuesday, May 17th, 12:20 CET





Technical Overview:
After the rest day the race resumes with an odd stage in the Marche region, famous for its terribly steep ramps that we will mostly avoid today. The first 100 kms of this stage are flat along the coast, ending with the first intermediate sprint in Civitanova Marche, where the first climb of the day starts. Crosette di Montecosaro (GPM4, 8.2 km at 2.7%) is mostly a false flat, but it does start with a serious ramp to get to Civitanova Alta before easing off. A very short descent will then bring the riders to the next climb, the one steep ramp that we are not going to avoid: Recanati (GPM4, 3.4 km at 6.9%), a climb that features 500m at 13.8% in the middle. Unfortunately, it tops at 70 km to go. What follows is a long section of rolling terrain, not ideal for chasing but not particularly hard either. Here and there there are a few short ramps, but the most notable thing here is just the second intermediate sprint in Filottrano, hometown of Michele Scarponi. The last categorized climb comes right at the end, Monsano (GPM4, 4.2 km at 4.2%), which features 1 km at 7% that should be a good springboard for a late attack. The top is at 8.5 km to go, most of which are lightly descending.

Final km:



The Climbs:

Crosette di Montecosaro
: GPM4, 8.2 km at 2.7%
No profile. The first ramp to Civitanova Alta is not bad, but then it becomes very easy.

Recanati: GPM4, 3.4 km at 6.9%
With a max gradient of 18%, this would create havoc if it was closer to the finish… Here it is hard to see anyone making a move.



Monsano: GPM4, 4.2 km at 4.2%
An overall easy climb with 1 km at 7% hidden inside.



What to expect:
A finisseur should take this one, perhaps from the breakaway, with the peloton cruising behind.


Jesi
 
Huge breakaway and the peloton rolls home ~20' after the winner.
I think the pure flat first 100km might make the battle for the breakaway a little more random and take a bit longer. I think it shoudl theoretically be easier to control as well. Soudal might fancy Ewan here, apart from Recanati it looks considerably easy than yesterday.
 
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I think the pure flat first 100km might make the battle for the breakaway a little more random and take a bit longer. I think it shoudl theoretically be easier to control as well. Soudal might fancy Ewan here, apart from Recanati it looks considerably easy than yesterday.
How in the world is Ewan surviving 18% gradients? Who is going to haul in the break in the unlikely event he can?
 
Breakaway? I think so but it depends on MVDP and Girmay getting in the break. If they don’t then their teams will likely chase.

As always with a flat start, the breakaway candidates are many but here’s my thinking …

As with the other day, it’ll be hard (not impossible) for MVDP or Girmay to win from a break. They’ll be heavily marked, can’t cover every attack, and the climbs are probably not hard enough for them to ride away.

So, after Yates’ GC collapse, Bike Exchange will be desperate to get at least two riders in the break and there’s one rider who ticks all the right boxes:

He has the power on the flat to make the break;

He copes well with small hills and is quite fast (Stage 2 Coppi e Bartali);

He’s a great time trialist, so if he escapes solo late he will never be caught.

The answer of course is MATTEO SOBRERO (100-1).

Anyway, just my 2c worth.
 
I would not be surprised if someone of the guys hoping for a top10 that had a bad day on etna or blockhaus would try to go in the break like Martin did in Napoli.
The same can happen also in Genova or in Turin
 
Jumbo Visma and Bike Exchange should be very active in pushing for the break. Trek may well let Mollema roam free as an out from controlling all day. Suits MVDP and Girmay a lot but as others have rightly said they will be heavily marked and leaned on to cover all the attacks.

Most obvious scenario is a breakaway of 10-15 riders with nobody within 20 minutes on GC that is allowed to go away and win by 10 minutes with maybe small skirmishes in the peloton late on to see if any of the top 15 can be dropped.
 
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This stage has precisely the same character as the Napoli one so I expect a similar race. I do think though that MvdP will have learned from his mistakes and win this time. That said, De Gendt winning again would be hilarious so he's who I'm rooting for.
This stage is way too easy for there to be super big favorites in a 20 man breakaway. But this one probably has some chance to go to a sprint if FdJ wants to play ball.
 
Isn’t the problem though that neither of their teams are strong enough to keep a large break under control. Perhaps since Demare is going well and can get over soft climbs FDJ will be willing to work at front. But there are several others stages this week that suit him, so they might wait.
With the first half of the stage being as flat as a pancake, it's easier to control who and how many will be in the break though. It's hard to see a break as strong and as big as the one on stage 8 going clear from the start.
 
Breakaway? I think so but it depends on MVDP and Girmay getting in the break. If they don’t then their teams will likely chase.

As always with a flat start, the breakaway candidates are many but here’s my thinking …

As with the other day, it’ll be hard (not impossible) for MVDP or Girmay to win from a break. They’ll be heavily marked, can’t cover every attack, and the climbs are probably not hard enough for them to ride away.

So, after Yates’ GC collapse, Bike Exchange will be desperate to get at least two riders in the break and there’s one rider who ticks all the right boxes:

He has the power on the flat to make the break;

He copes well with small hills and is quite fast (Stage 2 Coppi e Bartali);

He’s a great time trialist, so if he escapes solo late he will never be caught.

The answer of course is MATTEO SOBRERO (100-1).

Anyway, just my 2c worth.
Honestly, I've been thinking about them using him as a stagehunter now.
 
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