Giro d'Italia 2022 Giro d'Italia, Stage 13: Sanremo – Cuneo 150 km (Friday, May 20th)

From @Eshnar's excellent 2022 Giro d'Italia: Stage-by-stage Analysis thread: https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/2022-giro-ditalia-stage-by-stage-analysis.37819/#post-2691571

Stage 13: Sanremo – Cuneo 150 km
Friday, May 20th, 13:20 CET





Technical Overview:
From the famous town of Sanremo, the riders will head north for another transitional stage. The only real difficulty of the stage comes just after the first intermediate sprint of Pieve di Teco, which comes already after some decent ramps at 5-6% and a very short descent. There the peloton will start the only categorized climb of the day Colle di Nava (GPM3, 10.4 km at 6.6%), a pretty tough ascent with steady gradients all along. It is technically the first Alpine pass of this edition, and should have been more than a GPM3. The top is at 96 km to go, and there is no descent: the route will just slowly go down a valley and the riders will find themselves on mostly flatlands. The one remaining bump on the road comes at the second intermediate stage in S.Michele di Mondovì, but it is just an uncategorized ramp with just 5% average for a couple of kms. The finishing stretch will also be slightly ascending.

Final km:



The Climbs:

Colle di Nava
: GPM3, 10.4 km at 6.6%
A pretty good climb that would easily be GPM2, but RCS have consulted their magic 8 ball and they got GPM3. Other climbs had worse luck… you’ll see.



What to expect:
The outcome here is pretty open. The breakaway can make it, thanks to the Colle di Nava, but there is definitely enough room for the peloton to reel them back. Some teams could also decide to push on the climb and drop the heaviest sprinters.


Cuneo
 
With an extra 20km (parcours made with little knowledge of the area and without using backroads), would have liked more something like this (with the climb used in the 2001 Sanremo stage at the beginning and a short incursion through France to climb Colle di Tenda before descending to Cuneo). It has a long tunnel at the top, so I don't know if it would be feasible.

 
Reactions: Sandisfan
The sprinters who can climb (even just a little bit) will probably have their teams set a pace that is hard enough to drop Cav on the long climb. I wouldn't be surprised if he picked up his ball and went home after tomorrow or after the weekend.
 
Reactions: Sandisfan
What's INTERGIRO ?
It was like an intermediate sprint, only the GC time was counted across it, so it incentivised breaks to work hard to build time gaps, and teams in the péloton to try to chase back the break. It was a really cool idea that rewarded break specialists for a while but by the end it became commonly used by riders like Massimo Strazzer who would nullify breaks to win the sprint and get bonus seconds for the Intergiro because he was a strong sprinter but not enough to beat the Cipos and Petacchis of this world.

Having attempted a time-based variation on the normally points-based metas volantes, the Giro then briefly attempted a variation on the combiné, where instead of adding up positions in the classifications and awarding the jersey to the lowest cumulative total, they instead gave points each day for top 15 positions in the three major categories. This didn't work after Paolo Savoldelli won the prologue which had a hill in it, so led all three major competitions for a few days and built up an almost unassailable lead in the combiné as a result, leading to Ivan Basso finishing 1st, 2nd and 2nd in the major classifications... and 3rd in the Combiné.
 
Most seem to be saying almost certain sprint but I think the break has a better chance than most.

Who contributes to the chase?

Groupama-FDJ for Demare? They are the obvious candidate but given the status in the points competition, one could argue it is in their interests to let the break go (maybe with a rider in it - Valta?). I mean, Demare is way in front in the points competition but it would only take for something to go wrong for him in the sprint and Gaviria to take maximum points for it to be game on again.

Quick Step for Cavendish? Given he might be out the back on the first climb, they would be better to put a rider or two in the break rather than chasing for 100km.

UAE for Gaviria? They shouldn't. They need to preserve energy to help Almeida in the coming days. if they want to compete for this stage then they would also be better to put a rider or two in the break and give the rest of their team an easy day.

I'd say it's pretty much 50-50 sprint or break.

A couple of random possibilities with low confidence but big odds...

Damian Howson at 425-1. I'm going down with the Bike Exchange ship. Yates certainly won't be in this break and I doubt the two who were in it today (Sobrero and Hamilton) will be either. Howson is certainly strong enough to get in the break on or before the climb and thereafter it becomes a lottery.

Lilian Calmejane at 225-1. God he's been disappointing. It's hard to believe he's the same rider from five years ago when he threatened to become a world class one-day rider / stage hunter. Nowadays you just can't have any confidence in him but at least you know he will be trying. He has made no secret of the fact that he wants to complete the GT stage win treble and, looking at what is upcoming, this stage is probably his best chance. He doesn't climb well enough now to win a proper mountain stage from the break but remains pretty fast on the flat.
 
Most seem to be saying almost certain sprint but I think the break has a better chance than most.

Who contributes to the chase?

Groupama-FDJ for Demare? They are the obvious candidate but given the status in the points competition, one could argue it is in their interests to let the break go (maybe with a rider in it - Valta?). I mean, Demare is way in front in the points competition but it would only take for something to go wrong for him in the sprint and Gaviria to take maximum points for it to be game on again.

Quick Step for Cavendish? Given he might be out the back on the first climb, they would be better to put a rider or two in the break rather than chasing for 100km.

UAE for Gaviria? They shouldn't. They need to preserve energy to help Almeida in the coming days. if they want to compete for this stage then they would also be better to put a rider or two in the break and give the rest of their team an easy day.

I'd say it's pretty much 50-50 sprint or break.

A couple of random possibilities with low confidence but big odds...

Damian Howson at 425-1. I'm going down with the Bike Exchange ship. Yates certainly won't be in this break and I doubt the two who were in it today (Sobrero and Hamilton) will be either. Howson is certainly strong enough to get in the break on or before the climb and thereafter it becomes a lottery.

Lilian Calmejane at 225-1. God he's been disappointing. It's hard to believe he's the same rider from five years ago when he threatened to become a world class one-day rider / stage hunter. Nowadays you just can't have any confidence in him but at least you know he will be trying. He has made no secret of the fact that he wants to complete the GT stage win treble and, looking at what is upcoming, this stage is probably his best chance. He doesn't climb well enough now to win a proper mountain stage from the break but remains pretty fast on the flat.
I guess the counterpoint to this would be that FDG and Quickstep have nothing to ride for the three days after this (except staying in the time limit), so why not go all in? Especially since they weren't at all active today ( Genoa stage).
 

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