Giro d'Italia 2022 Giro d'Italia, Stage 13: Sanremo – Cuneo 150 km (Friday, May 20th)

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Most seem to be saying almost certain sprint but I think the break has a better chance than most.

Who contributes to the chase?

Groupama-FDJ for Demare? They are the obvious candidate but given the status in the points competition, one could argue it is in their interests to let the break go (maybe with a rider in it - Valta?). I mean, Demare is way in front in the points competition but it would only take for something to go wrong for him in the sprint and Gaviria to take maximum points for it to be game on again.

Quick Step for Cavendish? Given he might be out the back on the first climb, they would be better to put a rider or two in the break rather than chasing for 100km.

UAE for Gaviria? They shouldn't. They need to preserve energy to help Almeida in the coming days. if they want to compete for this stage then they would also be better to put a rider or two in the break and give the rest of their team an easy day.

I'd say it's pretty much 50-50 sprint or break.

A couple of random possibilities with low confidence but big odds...

Damian Howson at 425-1. I'm going down with the Bike Exchange ship. Yates certainly won't be in this break and I doubt the two who were in it today (Sobrero and Hamilton) will be either. Howson is certainly strong enough to get in the break on or before the climb and thereafter it becomes a lottery.

Lilian Calmejane at 225-1. God he's been disappointing. It's hard to believe he's the same rider from five years ago when he threatened to become a world class one-day rider / stage hunter. Nowadays you just can't have any confidence in him but at least you know he will be trying. He has made no secret of the fact that he wants to complete the GT stage win treble and, looking at what is upcoming, this stage is probably his best chance. He doesn't climb well enough now to win a proper mountain stage from the break but remains pretty fast on the flat.
I love how this post about rank outsiders was first liked by 'safe bet' :)
 
I guess the counterpoint to this would be that FDG and Quickstep have nothing to ride for the three days after this (except staying in the time limit), so why not go all in? Especially since they weren't at all active today ( Genoa stage).
This is a very fair counter-point, although I think that point applies much more to G-FDJ than Quickstep. Quickstep can either:

(a) Devote all their troops to Cavendish , who might be a long way back after the first climb, and who wouldn't have Morkov with him should it come to a sprint; or
(b) Put guys like Vansevenant and Schmid in the break and do no chasing.

I think option B gives them a better chance but I could be wrong.
 
This is a very fair counter-point, although I think that point applies much more to G-FDJ than Quickstep. Quickstep can either:

(a) Devote all their troops to Cavendish , who might be a long way back after the first climb, and who wouldn't have Morkov with him should it come to a sprint; or
(b) Put guys like Vansevenant and Schmid in the break and do no chasing.

I think option B gives them a better chance but I could be wrong.
Good point—Schmid was very strong in one the 1st week stages, he could be a good candidate to win from a break. We’ll see soon!
 
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The sprinters who can climb (even just a little bit) will probably have their teams set a pace that is hard enough to drop Cav on the long climb. I wouldn't be surprised if he picked up his ball and went home after tomorrow or after the weekend.
It would be amusing if Cavendish went into the break himself. They wouldn't let him, and he probably doesn't want it, but it would a nice change of pace.

Anyway, no way he makes it over that climb with any chance to compete for the stage win imo.
 
Hard to call this one. The break could survive but plenty of time after the main climb for the bunch to chase them down.
who, though? Groupama of course, and Gaviria would like a sprint as well, but I don't think UAE will invest too much, with more of an eye on tomorrow.

If they want a sprint, I'd say best chance is to set a very easy pace, so that Cav and the ISN doms can hang on, and both teams join the chase afterwards. And that of course comes with the risk that the gap to the breakaway gets pretty big.
 
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The sprinters who can climb (even just a little bit) will probably have their teams set a pace that is hard enough to drop Cav on the long climb. I wouldn't be surprised if he picked up his ball and went home after tomorrow or after the weekend.
I think he may stick around because he isn't going to the Tour. Even if stage 18 or whichever one it was isn't all that guaranteed to be a sprint either.

All in all this stage is just so bad again. Plenty of options to make it better, including easy ones that have been done before.
 
I would not have said this at the start of the race but I think Mauro Schmid is a better card to play for Quickstep than Cav today. All depends whether a break establishes 2 minutes lead before the foot of the climb. If there is no break then a brutal pace could be set to shred all the sprinters though with MVDP showing some signs of actually being human and Girmay departed its not as clear who would have the motivation and desire to do that detonation job.

I think it will be a breakaway and would be shocked if De Gendt isn't all over the front forcing the moves.
 
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If Ewan (with decent legs) and girmay were here I'd say sprinters were clear favourites. As it is fdj will probably chase and maybe get some help from the likes of DSM, Cofidis, UAE.
Think the break will make it but could go to the sprinters depending on how many teams contribute.
 
Stage 13 and Im not even sure who the GC contenders are never mind who might win.
I am usually of the "riders not stages make the race" but this Giro has been a bit of a joke. 2 days age we literally had a straight like for over 140km
It's a bit disappointing that we've not had a couple more fun medium days in here. The giro is normally good at having some mix em up stages to keep things interesting but it has felt very short on that front
 
Sonny Colbrelli came to visit the Giro today.

"The clinical examinations have shown further improvement of cardiovascular health, clearing Colbrelli to start taking up leisure rides and light physical activity.
"The priority remains to continually monitor his condition with a close follow up in the coming months to secure his safety and resumption of regular life activities."


 
I think it’s definitely worth UAE’s while chasing, or at least helping the chase. If only on the basis that a sprint win for Gaviria is a more likely stage for them than Almeida on a MTF. Same logic that saw Bardet lead out Dainese.
 

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