Giro d'Italia 2022 Giro d'Italia, Stage 17: Ponte di Legno – Lavarone 168 km (Wednesday, May 25th)

From @Eshnar's excellent 2022 Giro d'Italia: Stage-by-stage Analysis thread:

Stage 17: Ponte di Legno – Lavarone 168 km
Wednesday, May 25th, 12:30 CET

Technical Overview:
Another mountain stage, and a very interesting one at that, albeit not as hard as the previous one. Starting from the town of Ponte di Legno, the riders will hit the first climb of the day immediately, the inexplicably uncategorized Passo del Tonale (8.7 km at 6.4%). Its descent is long but very fast, and leads to a very long descending valley which will take the rest of the first half of this stage. The first categorized climb comes right at the end of it, Giovo (GPM3, 5.9 km at 6.8%), a rather short and quite steep climb. This will lead to a section of very rough terrain, full of small ramps and descents that lasts 36 kms and ends with the intermediate sprint of Pergine Valsugana. From here, the peloton will face a huge combo of two climbs that will lead to the finish. The first one is Passo del Vetriolo (GPM1, 11.8 km at 7.7%), a mid-size climb with very regular gradients, always around 8%, which tops at 32 km to go. Its descent has the same characteristics, and with its many hairpins it might prove to be a key point of the race. At the bottom the riders will get only 5 km of flat roads, with the intermediate sprint in Caldonazzo, and then the road will go up again. The final climb, Monte Rovere (GPM1, 7.9 km at 9.9%) better known as Menador, has never been used in the Giro, despite being a regular presence in the Giro rumours for pretty much a decade at this point. It is a very tough climb, rather short but really steep, that does not offer any respite. The top is at only 8 km to go, with no descent but just rough terrain to follow, which might stretch gaps even further if anyone still has the legs to push.

Final km:

The Climbs:

Passo del Tonale
: 8.7 km at 6.4%
“No.” – The 8-Ball, probably.

Giovo: GPM3, 5.9 km at 6.8%
Quite steep, with a flat stretch near the bottom that lowers the average gradient.

Passo del Vetriolo: GPM1, 11.8 km at 7.7%
A very consistent climb, always around 8%.

Monte Rovere: GPM1, 7.9 km at 9.9%
Never used before in the Giro, we can now finally see it after years of rumours. It is also known as Menador, or also with its German name, Kaiserjägerstraße, as it was built by the Austrians for military purposes.

What to expect:
I’m quite confident for this one. Tomorrow is basically a rest day and today there is plenty of room to attack anywhere in the last 40 kms.

The Menador
The stage is more backloaded than today (albeit much easier earlier). On Monterovere (which is a nasty, steep climb) I expect a fight for GC similar to today's on Santa Cristina with peleton falling apart on Vetriolo already. Carapaz, Hindley & Landa will be looking to put some seconds into Almeida again (which could be crucial at the end) and they will succeed IMO. Not sure if the trio will be separated tomorrow but Hindley will try to catch some bonuses again.
With the GC so close I am not going to rule out someone trying an ambush on the initial climb to catch others sleeping.

Probably won't happen so then I guess it's a safe sleep until Vetriolo where I suspect someone will try something
Reactions: noob
Likely a very reduced GC group again.

I don't think Bora can afford to put riders in the break with Hindley being so close to Carapaz in the GC.

If they want to, they can take the jersey. Bora catch the breakaway on Monte Rovere and Hindley outsprints Carapaz at the finish line winning both stage and pink jersey.
Reactions: SHAD0W93
In the context of the whole race this is probably the sleeper moutain stage. After today we could see really big gaps and there's a climb right at the start so that we'll get a quality breakaway. I really like it.
15 minutes of full gas to form the breakaway. Then Carapaz peepee break, break gets 25 minutes, and it's Pucchio pace until Menador.
If Bora doesn't control this to try to set up a Hindley stage win then it's a missed opportunity. Hindley looks at least as strong as Carapaz and Landa and keeps outsprinting them.

They have a full team and a good one.

From now on they need to forget this stage hunting nonsense with Kamna, and not even think about trying to protect Buchmann's 8th position.

The GC is there for the taking.
Reactions: spalco and JosefK
In a way today's stage was useful to get Boras priorities in order. Kämna and Keldermann had enough stage hunting freedom, Buchmann can try to hang on for Top 10 GC but only after he worked for Hindley which should be everyone's focus now.
Nuke the Vertiolo with Zwiehoff, Aleotti and Kämna (probably in that order) and Menador with Keldermann/Buchmann. Ineos look quite suspicious when the pace gets fast quickly. Make everything as hard as possible, and see if Hindley can drop the others on the 11% kilometers at the end. If not he can still outsprint Carapaz for the stage win.
10-6-4 secs for the first three.

Hindley must go for 1st, then he gains four secs on second Carapaz. If Hindley is second, he only gains two seconds on third Carapaz.

For Hindley, it‘s now about winning stages. So he has an advantage before Sunday.
If Hindley is going to attempt to win based on bonus seconds accumulation, doesn't that put the impetus on his team to reel in the break?
Maybe Almeida's elastic snaps? Yes this is the sleeper mountain stage. There is a struck match between Carapaz and Hindley climbing wise but Hindley needs time so he needs to try to attack on the final climb otherwise settle for bonus seconds which is risky.
Reactions: search
(…) Hindley needs time so he needs to try to attack on the final climb otherwise settle for bonus seconds which is risky.
Yeah, going just for bonus seconds is risky, because Carapaz also is really fast after these hard stages.

It‘s actually crazy that these hard Giros (2020 and probably 2022) are decided by seconds. In a few weeks, in July in France, we‘ll have Pogacar, minutes in front of Primoz, who himself will be minutes in front of the rest…