Giro d'Italia 2022 Giro d'Italia, Stage 17: Ponte di Legno – Lavarone 168 km (Wednesday, May 25th)

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Carapaz is quite careful in not making himself exposed to an attack by Hindley, so unfortunately it makes sense for the latter to wait for and go all in on Fedaia. It's the tragedy of the route and a field that is quite even uphill.
Hindley better goes all-in on Pordoi already. Because if Landa has gotten another minute advantage for the podium on Kolovrat the Basque is not going to take a single pull for Carapaz if Hindley gaps them.
 
Congratulations to Santiago Buitrago Sánchez for winning the stage.

I guess Nibali and Almeida are slowly getting distanced in regards to overall. Still a lot can happen in the reaming few days. Obviously Mathieu van der Poel deserves a special mention today. If this keeps going on then Rogla and Pogi might end up going for sprints. Or something like that. As for the three musketeers. It will be interesting to see on how this one unfolds.
 
We need to be realistic. That is if one of them would just rode away this Giro would be over already. And that would in my opinion be rather bad. But it will happen. If not on Kolovrat then the very next day. One of them will crush the others. ITT likely won't decide this Giro edition.
 
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I definitely had the feeling he's been stronger than this in GTs. He has crashed a lot in important moments which hampered him, so its hard to judge, but take Giro 2019 for example - I think that version definitely is stronger.
The 2019 Giro is the closest he's been to his 2015 level, don't think the second-strongest legs he's had in a GT in 7.5 seasons as a GC rider counts as 'normal level'. Sure, he's been better than he is now, but he's also been worse at his main targets at least as often. Hence, 'normal level'.
 
Congratulations to Santiago Buitrago Sánchez for winning the stage.

I guess Nibali and Almeida are slowly getting distanced in regards to overall. Still a lot can happen in the reaming few days. Obviously Mathieu van der Poel deserves a special mention today. If this keeps going on then Rogla and Pogi might end up going for sprints. Or something like that. As for the three musketeers. It will be interesting to see on how this one unfolds.
Nibali is gone. Not sure why we mention him when we talk about the chances of high placings in the Giro. It looks like a three riders race with one being distanced slowly and surely.
 
Carapaz is quite careful in not making himself exposed to an attack by Hindley, so unfortunately it makes sense for the latter to wait for and go all in on Fedaia. It's the tragedy of the route and a field that is quite even uphill.
I don't know...I've never understood the "let's wait for the final mountain stage to attack" tactic and I feel like it is mostly used because of riders not willing to get out of their comfort zone and not because it's a good tactic. Let's say when Carapaz, Hindley and Landa were on their own, Hindley attacks but it turns out Carapaz is actually much better, counters him and Hindley loses a big chunk of time. So what?

If Carapaz is indeed much stronger he will find out on the Fedaia anyway and then knowing Carapaz is the superior climber would only be good for him right now. He would know he can either concentrate on defending or try to attack from further out to catch Carapaz off guard.

But even more importantly, what if Carapaz isn't stronger? I don't know exactly how much Hindley would need on Carapaz to hold him off in the TT but if he wants to feel confident about winning it's probably over half a minute. If Hindley turns out to be stronger than Carapaz what are the odds he actually drops him by over half a minute? People tend to forget how hard that is over one climb. How often do you think the best gc rider managed to finish over half a minute in front of the 2nd best gc rider in last years giro? Precisely zero times. Remember stuff like Quintana dominating Blockhaus in 2017? He finished 24 seconds in front of Pinot and Dumoulin.
If Hindley is actually stronger than Carapaz, by now he has actually made it extremely difficult for himself to win.
 
It's not that Fedaia is last, it's that it's the most suited to Hindley, I think. But because it is the last climb, it matters how you manage your efforts before that. I think he is marginally stronger than Carapaz, but not enough to gain time today. So it makes sense to distance Almeida while keeping as much in reserve as possible. And I have him ever so slightly favoured over Carapaz for pink in Verona.
 
I don't know...I've never understood the "let's wait for the final mountain stage to attack" tactic and I feel like it is mostly used because of riders not willing to get out of their comfort zone and not because it's a good tactic. Let's say when Carapaz, Hindley and Landa were on their own, Hindley attacks but it turns out Carapaz is actually much better, counters him and Hindley loses a big chunk of time. So what?

If Carapaz is indeed much stronger he will find out on the Fedaia anyway and then knowing Carapaz is the superior climber would only be good for him right now. He would know he can either concentrate on defending or try to attack from further out to catch Carapaz off guard.

But even more importantly, what if Carapaz isn't stronger? I don't know exactly how much Hindley would need on Carapaz to hold him off in the TT but if he wants to feel confident about winning it's probably over half a minute. If Hindley turns out to be stronger than Carapaz what are the odds he actually drops him by over half a minute? People tend to forget how hard that is over one climb. How often do you think the best gc rider managed to finish over half a minute in front of the 2nd best gc rider in last years giro? Precisely zero times. Remember stuff like Quintana dominating Blockhaus in 2017? He finished 24 seconds in front of Pinot and Dumoulin.
If Hindley is actually stronger than Carapaz, by now he has actually made it extremely difficult for himself to win.
The reason to wait for the last stage to take pink is becuase you'll get more sleep and hence recover better. Roglic has lost the red jersey in vuelta on purpuse for that reason for example. Wearing a leading jersey adds so much more time to doping controls, press etc etc. Time that could have been used to sleep and recover.
 
The reason to wait for the last stage to take pink is becuase you'll get more sleep and hence recover better. Roglic has lost the red jersey in vuelta on purpuse for that reason for example. Wearing a leading jersey adds so much more time to doping controls, press etc etc. Time that could have been used to sleep and recover.
In the first week of a gt sure...but you would have to be dense on a level barely achievable by human beings to willingly refuse to drop your rival in order to get ten minutes more sleep.
 
Nibali is gone. Not sure why we mention him when we talk about the chances of high placings in the Giro. It looks like a three riders race with one being distanced slowly and surely.
Likely but this is Nibali on his last Giro. He will hence at least try. If he will have something left. Maybe on stage 19 and maybe in cooperation with Almeida. Considering they both won't get much out of this GT if they don't at least try. Not all that realistic scenario but with a bit of luck still a possibility.
 
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The 2019 Giro is the closest he's been to his 2015 level, don't think the second-strongest legs he's had in a GT in 7.5 seasons as a GC rider counts as 'normal level'. Sure, he's been better than he is now, but he's also been worse at his main targets at least as often. Hence, 'normal level'.
In 2019 I think he was slightly better than this year maybe, but not by too much. He was on par with Carapaz which he is now as well.
 
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