Giro d'Italia 2022 Giro d'Italia, Stage 19: Marano Lagunare – Santuario di Castelmonte 178 km (Friday, May 27th)

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Final preparations for the cycling holiday. There is an ongoing Strava challenge too. Who can undertake Kolovrat the fastest. After slightly above 1000 attempts Daniele Braidot (35:15) and Alessandro De Marchi (35:34) are ahead of Flying Potato (35:48).


Mohorič will be there tomorrow too. A hour before the race he will do a training ride on Kolovrat.


D Marchi kom was on the week of the Giro departure.. i think it's safe to assume he'll be 1 of 20/25 on the break..
 
Reactions: CyclistAbi
I was under the assumption that if Carapaz starts the ITT within 15 seconds of Hindley he essentially has the Giro locked up. Is that not the case?
hard to say how much he improved since the 2020 Giro. New team, new equipment, and he hasn't done many proper time trials this year. Going by the way they are riding, I'd say Bora is pretty confident that he can beat Carapaz
 
My predictions have been pretty cold lately but, in the spirit of a previous Giro stage 19 that treated me well (Cerny at 325-1) I'm having a go at a longshot.

I think the break probably wins and, as usual late in a GT, it's sometimes more about who is feeling freshest rather than who is ordinarily the best climber. It can also be won by someone who isn't a great climber but who can escape on a descent or in the valley and begin the final climb with a gap.

With that in mind, Fabio Felline (325-1) might have secretly good form. His ride over three significant climbs on Stage 15 would certainly suggest that. Sure, the GC riders didn't ride that stage hard but Felline still led in the 25 man strong GC group, so his legs must be pretty good. Even yesterday on the flat stage he finished in the main group on a stage where many were dropping back from accumulated exhaustion.

If he can escape before the final climb (maybe with another Astana rider like Dombrowski sitting on behind and creating disharmony by refusing to work) then he won't need a huge gap at the base of the last climb to win. The final climb today is steady and not too steep, which suits him well.

Unlikely, I know, but I like any 325-1 chance when you can envisage a plausible scenario of them winning.
With a name like Fabio you have to give love eyes.

Our ship is about to sail in boys.
The real winner will be Sobrero.
 
Reactions: The Barb
With a name like Fabio you have to give love eyes.

Our ship is about to sail in boys.
The real winner will be Sobrero.
White said he'd take it easy, so today may be the day indeed ;)

edit: same as de Marchi, by the way, according to the Velonews preview:

Di Marchi has had his focus on this stage for months. His fan club will be waiting for him at the finish, as will his family. But he says that his form is not good enough for him to try one of his trademark breakaways. “I’m going to enjoy it, because it would just be a bit pointless to try anything. My mind and legs aren’t going hand in hand at the moment,” he said at the stage 18 start in Borgo Valsugana.

“I’ve had a lot of dreams about for tomorrow, though. I will certainly sleep soundly tonight, but I’ll perhaps be a little more agitated than usual, because the idea of seeing so many people waiting for me including my wife and son is something that has been buzzing around in my head for months. Finally, the moment has come.
 
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My predictions have been pretty cold lately but, in the spirit of a previous Giro stage 19 that treated me well (Cerny at 325-1) I'm having a go at a longshot.

I think the break probably wins and, as usual late in a GT, it's sometimes more about who is feeling freshest rather than who is ordinarily the best climber. It can also be won by someone who isn't a great climber but who can escape on a descent or in the valley and begin the final climb with a gap.

With that in mind, Fabio Felline (325-1) might have secretly good form. His ride over three significant climbs on Stage 15 would certainly suggest that. Sure, the GC riders didn't ride that stage hard but Felline still led in the 25 man strong GC group, so his legs must be pretty good. Even yesterday on the flat stage he finished in the main group on a stage where many were dropping back from accumulated exhaustion.

If he can escape before the final climb (maybe with another Astana rider like Dombrowski sitting on behind and creating disharmony by refusing to work) then he won't need a huge gap at the base of the last climb to win. The final climb today is steady and not too steep, which suits him well.

Unlikely, I know, but I like any 325-1 chance when you can envisage a plausible scenario of them winning.
Well I have looked at Castravejo at odds 751-1. Jonathan Narvarez -500-1, or Sivakov 300-1. Chances are Ineos and all other teams want a post in the break, biggest chance is it being Castravejo or Narvarez. They will be able to set on the wheels the whole day, and if Landa can't break away they will get to ride for the win.
Especially Castravejo and Sivakov would have a fairly decent chance of winning in that siutation.
 
Reactions: The Barb
Even if Hindley or Carapaz can't grab some seconds, the TT between the two should be interesting. Bora would love Hindley to win the stage and pick up a time bonus and if the break doesn't succeed, there is a good chance that will happen. Very hard to predict what either rider will do in the TT.
 
Well I have looked at Castravejo at odds 751-1. Jonathan Narvarez -500-1, or Sivakov 300-1. Chances are Ineos and all other teams want a post in the break, biggest chance is it being Castravejo or Narvarez. They will be able to set on the wheels the whole day, and if Landa can't break away they will get to ride for the win.
Especially Castravejo and Sivakov would have a fairly decent chance of winning in that siutation.
I’ve had a few dollars on Sivakov, for the same reasons. It makes a bit of sense to put someone up the road as a protective measure, then if Bora and Bahrain ride conservatively that rider could be freed for a little personal glory.

On the other hand, we are 19 stages into the race and Ineos has put a rider in the break precisely ZERO time.
 
Even if they put riders up the road, Bahrain will probably have more success in pushing Bilbao for the stage and up the GC than free Landa, in the end it's down to what he has in his legs and mind to answer the call. There is something lame about this Giro, can't get my hope up.
 
If he's the Landa we know and hold in such high esteem, tomorrow he should really attack early. He's basically got nothing to lose: even if Nibs magically finds good legs he's almost five minutes down. He would have to blow up worse than 2018 Yates to lose his podium spot, but if he drills the descent with Bilbao he can probably drop a lot of Ineos and Bora domestiques and battle it out with Carapaz and Hindley. If at the end of the day they are stronger than him, so be it. It's not like he was gonna gain a minute on them on the TT anyway.
I agree. To win Giro Jai can wait for Fedaia. Landa no.

If he had the legs he must send Poels or Buitrago (pello is not possible, is too near top of GC) in the break, go away on kolovrat and then use help of Poels/Buitrago who wait for him on Castelmonte.

IF he had legs, this Giro is the chanche of his life to win a grand tour. and can be the last
 

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